比特币（BTC）价格目标：2030预测

本文中的价格目标依赖于关于可寻址市场（TAM）和下面讨论的渗透率的假设。

In ARK’s Big Ideas 2025 report, we updated our bitcoin price targets for 2030, projecting bear, base, and bull cases of ~300,000, ~710,000, and ~1.5 million, respectively, as shown below.

在ARK的《 2025年大创意》中，我们更新了2030年的比特币价格目标，预计熊，基本和牛案例分别为300,000，〜710,000，约150万，如下所示。

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis is based on a range of external sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.

资料来源：ARK Investment Management LLC，2025年。该方舟分析基于截至2024年12月31日的一系列外部来源，可以根据要求提供。仅出于信息目的，不应被视为投资建议或建议购买，出售或持有任何特定安全性或加密货币的建议。

Our price targets are the sum of TAM (Total Addressable Market) contributions at the end of 2030, based on the following formula:

我们的价格目标是根据以下公式在2030年底的TAM（总可寻址市场）捐款的总和：

Our supply estimate is based on bitcoin’s deterministic issuance schedule, which will approach ~20.5 million units by 2030. Each variable contributes to the price target as follows:

我们的供应估算基于比特币的确定性发行时间表，到2030年，该计划将接近约2050万个单位。每个变量都会提高目标价格：如下：

Anticipated contributors to capital accrual (primary):

预期资本应计（主要）的贡献者：

Anticipated contributors to capital accrual (secondary):

预期资本应计（中学）的贡献者：

Excluding digital gold, which our model penalizes because it is the most direct, zero-sum competitor to bitcoin, we assume conservatively that the TAM of the contributors listed above (specifically 1, 3, 4, and 5) grows at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% over the next six years. For the sixth contributor—bitcoin’s on-chain financial services—we assume a 6-year CAGR ranging from 20% to 60%, relative to the value accrued as of year-end 2024, as follows:

除了我们的模型是对比特币的最直接，零和竞争对手，我们对数字黄金进行了惩罚，我们保守地认为，上面列出的贡献者的TAM（尤其是1、3、4和5）在未来六年中以3％的复合年度增长率（CAGR）增长。对于第六贡献者（Bitcoin的链上金融服务），我们假设年增长率从20％到60％，相对于截至2024年年底的价值，如下：

Finally, we delineate the TAM and penetration rate contributions to the bear, base, and bull price targets, respectively, as follows:

最后，我们分别描述了TAM的TAM和渗透率贡献，分别为熊，基础和牛目标目标，如下所示：

As shown in the chart above, digital gold contributes the most to our bear and base cases, while institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case. Interestingly, nation-state treasuries, corporate treasuries, and Bitcoin’s decentralized financial services contribute relatively little in each case.

如上图所示，数字黄金对我们的熊和基本案件做出了最大的贡献，而机构投资对我们的牛案贡献了最大的贡献。有趣的是，在每种情况下，民族国家的国债，公司国库和比特币的分散金融服务都相对较小。

In the tables below, we detail our forecasted relative contributions of the six sources of capital accrual to the bear, base, and bull cases, respectively.

在下面的表中，我们分别详细介绍了我们对熊，基础和公牛案件的六个资本应计的相对贡献。

1. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Institutional Investment

1。资本应计的潜在贡献者：机构投资

According to State Street, The Global Market Portfolio2 is defined as:

根据州街的说法，全球市场投资组合定义为：

> All investable capital assets corresponding to its market value divided by the sum of the market values of all assets. As the sum of all holdings that result from the collective decisions of investors and issuers, as well as suppliers and demanders of capital, the Global Market Portfolio can be seen as a de facto proxy for the investable opportunity set available to

>所有与其市场价值相对应的可投资资本资产除以所有资产的市场价值之和。由于投资者和发行人的集体决策以及资本的供应商和需求的所有持股总额，全球市场投资组合可以看作是可用于可用于投资的机会的事实上的代理

> all investors globally.

>全球所有投资者。

As of 2024, the global portfolio’s TAM, excluding gold’s 3.6% share, is ~169 trillion. Applying an assumed 3% CAGR results in a value of ~200 trillion by 2030.

截至2024年，全球投资组合的TAM（不包括黄金的3.6％份额）约为169万亿。到2030年，应用假定的3％CAGR会导致〜200万亿。

We then assume 1% and 2.5% penetration rates for the bear and base cases, respectively, both of which are lower than gold’s 3.6% share today. As a result, the bear and base cases represent conservative views on bitcoin’s adoption. In the more aggressive bull case, we assume that bitcoin penetration hits 6.5%, nearly double gold’s current share.

然后，我们分别假定熊和基本病例的渗透率为1％和2.5％，这两者都低于当今黄金的3.6％份额。结果，熊和基本案件代表了对比特币采用的保守观点。在更具侵略性的公牛案中，我们认为比特币渗透率达到6.5％，几乎是金黄色目前的份额。

2. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Digital Gold

2。资本应计的潜在贡献者：数字黄金

The contribution of digital gold assumes a TAM relative to gold’s current market capitalization. Given our aggressive penetration rate, we penalize gold’s expected TAM in 2030 by assuming no growth. In our view, bitcoin as digital gold is an appealing narrative and will drive penetration.

数字黄金的贡献相对于黄金当前的市值而言是TAM。鉴于我们的积极渗透率，我们假设没有增长来对Gold在2030年的预期TAM处罚。我们认为，比特币作为数字黄金是一种吸引人的叙述，将推动穿透。

3. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Emerging Market Safe Haven

3。资本应计的潜在贡献者：新兴市场避风港

The Emerging Market Safe Haven TAM is based on the monetary base of all developing nations—also known as “non-advanced” economies according to the IMF/CIA definition.4 In our view, this bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual. In addition to its store-of-value characteristics, bitcoin’s low barriers to entry provide individuals with internet connections in emerging markets access to an investment alternative that may provide capital appreciation over time—as opposed to defensive allocations like the US dollar—to preserve purchasing power and avoid the devaluations of their own national currencies.

新兴市场的避风港TAM基于所有发展中国家的货币基础，也根据国际货币基金组织/CIA定义称为“非加工”经济体。4在我们看来，该比特币用例具有最大的资本应计潜力。除了其价值储存特性外，比特币的低障碍入境障碍还为个人提供了在新兴市场的互联网连接，可以访问一种投资替代方案，该替代方案可能会随着时间的流逝而提供资本增值（与美元（如美元）相反，与美元分配相反，可以保留购买力并避免自己的国民货币贬值。

4. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Nation-State Treasuries

4。资本应计的潜在贡献者：民族国家国库

While El Salvador and Bhutan currently lead the world in nation-state bitcoin adoption, advocates for bitcoin strategic reserves are growing—not least President Trump, who, on March 6, issued an executive order5 to establish a reserve in the United States. Although our bear and base case assumptions are conservative, we believe that the US could bolster the justification for the 7%

尽管埃尔·萨尔瓦多（El Salvador）和不丹（Bhutan）目前在采用民族国家的比特币采用全球领导着全球，但比特币战略储备金的拥护者正在增长，而不是特朗普总统在3月6日发布了一项行政命令5，以在美国建立储备金。尽管我们的熊和基本案例假设是保守的，但我们认为美国可以加强7％的理由