Bitcoin (BTC) Price Targets: 2030 Projections

Price targets in this article rely on assumptions made regarding the total addressable markets (TAMs) and penetration rates discussed below.

In ARK’s Big Ideas 2025 report, we updated our bitcoin price targets for 2030, projecting bear, base, and bull cases of ~300,000, ~710,000, and ~1.5 million, respectively, as shown below.

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis is based on a range of external sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.

Our price targets are the sum of TAM (Total Addressable Market) contributions at the end of 2030, based on the following formula:

Our supply estimate is based on bitcoin’s deterministic issuance schedule, which will approach ~20.5 million units by 2030. Each variable contributes to the price target as follows:

Anticipated contributors to capital accrual (primary):

Anticipated contributors to capital accrual (secondary):

Excluding digital gold, which our model penalizes because it is the most direct, zero-sum competitor to bitcoin, we assume conservatively that the TAM of the contributors listed above (specifically 1, 3, 4, and 5) grows at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% over the next six years. For the sixth contributor—bitcoin’s on-chain financial services—we assume a 6-year CAGR ranging from 20% to 60%, relative to the value accrued as of year-end 2024, as follows:

Finally, we delineate the TAM and penetration rate contributions to the bear, base, and bull price targets, respectively, as follows:

As shown in the chart above, digital gold contributes the most to our bear and base cases, while institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case. Interestingly, nation-state treasuries, corporate treasuries, and Bitcoin’s decentralized financial services contribute relatively little in each case.

In the tables below, we detail our forecasted relative contributions of the six sources of capital accrual to the bear, base, and bull cases, respectively.

1. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Institutional Investment

According to State Street, The Global Market Portfolio2 is defined as:

> All investable capital assets corresponding to its market value divided by the sum of the market values of all assets. As the sum of all holdings that result from the collective decisions of investors and issuers, as well as suppliers and demanders of capital, the Global Market Portfolio can be seen as a de facto proxy for the investable opportunity set available to

> all investors globally.

As of 2024, the global portfolio’s TAM, excluding gold’s 3.6% share, is ~169 trillion. Applying an assumed 3% CAGR results in a value of ~200 trillion by 2030.

We then assume 1% and 2.5% penetration rates for the bear and base cases, respectively, both of which are lower than gold’s 3.6% share today. As a result, the bear and base cases represent conservative views on bitcoin’s adoption. In the more aggressive bull case, we assume that bitcoin penetration hits 6.5%, nearly double gold’s current share.

2. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Digital Gold

The contribution of digital gold assumes a TAM relative to gold’s current market capitalization. Given our aggressive penetration rate, we penalize gold’s expected TAM in 2030 by assuming no growth. In our view, bitcoin as digital gold is an appealing narrative and will drive penetration.

3. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Emerging Market Safe Haven

The Emerging Market Safe Haven TAM is based on the monetary base of all developing nations—also known as “non-advanced” economies according to the IMF/CIA definition.4 In our view, this bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual. In addition to its store-of-value characteristics, bitcoin’s low barriers to entry provide individuals with internet connections in emerging markets access to an investment alternative that may provide capital appreciation over time—as opposed to defensive allocations like the US dollar—to preserve purchasing power and avoid the devaluations of their own national currencies.

4. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Nation-State Treasuries

While El Salvador and Bhutan currently lead the world in nation-state bitcoin adoption, advocates for bitcoin strategic reserves are growing—not least President Trump, who, on March 6, issued an executive order5 to establish a reserve in the United States. Although our bear and base case assumptions are conservative, we believe that the US could bolster the justification for the 7%