比特幣（BTC）的價格恢復了27％，至4月收於94,181美元，為5月的電阻測試奠定了基礎

在4月下旬，比特幣價格從74,000美元的低點恢復了巨大的回收

April saw a dramatic recovery for Bitcoin price, rebounding from a low of $74,000 to close the month at $94,181 on April 30. This marks a 27% gain over the period, closely aligning with the Stock-to-Flow model’s projected path.

4月的比特幣價格恢復了巨大的恢復，從4月30日的低點從74,000美元的低點到本月的收盤價為94,181美元。這標誌著該期間的27％增長，與股票與流量模型的預期路徑緊密相符。

Completing a pennant breakout and avoiding a ‘death cross’ formed the technical highlight, while institutional signals also picked up as reports circulated of Morgan Stanley adding crypto to E*TRADE, and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced plans for a $21 billion equity raise, partly for more Bitcoin.

完成錦標賽的突破並避免了“死亡十字”構成了技術亮點，而機構信號也浮出水面，因為摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的報導向E*貿易增加了加密貨幣，戰略（以前是MicroStrategy）宣布了210億美元股權的計劃，該計劃是籌集的210億美元，部分是為了獲得更多比特幣。

Combined, these technical and fundamental backdrops set the stage for May’s test: can BTC clear resistance and reclaim its all-time highs?

這些技術和基本背景結合在一起為5月的測試奠定了基礎：BTC可以清除阻力並恢復其歷史最高點嗎？

Bitcoin Price Technical Turnaround in April

4月比特幣價格技術周轉

After a turbulent start to the year, Bitcoin finally broke out of a descending channel and pennant in mid-April, a bullish sign usually followed by further gains.

在一年的動蕩開始之後，比特幣終於在4月中旬的下降頻道和山南旗爆發出來，通常是一個看漲的標誌，然後是進一步的收益。

The cryptocurrency also managed to avoid a “death cross”—where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day—suggesting that broader selling pressure had receded and sustained bullish pressure remained.

加密貨幣還設法避免了“死亡十字架”（50天移動平均水平低於200天），這表明，更廣泛的銷售壓力已經消退並持續了看漲的壓力。

Furthermore, BTC formed a double-bottom near $76,560 and decisively reclaimed $88,830, a key support zone that had stalled December 2024's rally.

此外，BTC在76,560美元接近$ 76,560的情況下形成了一個雙重底部，並果斷地回收了88,830美元，這是一個關鍵的支撐區，該區停滯了2024年12月的集會。

On April 23, BTC surged past $92,892 for the first time since early March, marking a rise of over 23% from the month’s low. However, trading volumes had been lagging behind price action, which could temper the strength of any further extensions above $100,000.

4月23日，BTC自3月初以來首次飆升了92,892美元，比該月的低點增長了23％以上。但是，交易量一直落後於價格行動，這可能會緩解超過100,000美元以上的任何進一步擴展的實力。

Looking ahead, traders will be focusing on resistance levels at $100,000 and $107,000, which could pose challenges to a sustained recovery. On the support side, the breakout point at $92,892 will be closely watched, along with a deeper support zone around $85,000 in case of deeper retracements.

展望未來，交易者將重點關注100,000美元和107,000美元的阻力水平，這可能會對持續的恢復構成挑戰。在支持方面，將密切關注92,892美元的突破點，以及更深層次的支撐區，約為85,000美元，以防更深層次的回溯。

Institutional and Policy Drivers

機構和政策驅動力

Despite a strong start to the year, spot-Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows in March, but that trend reversed in April with inflows of $2.9 billion. This brings cumulative year-to-date flows past $39 billion.

儘管今年的開端很強，但Spot-Bitcoin ETF在三月份看到了淨流出，但這種趨勢在4月逆轉，流入為29億美元。這使累計年底流動超過390億​​美元。

One factor that could unlock further retail and high-net-worth demand is Morgan Stanley’s potential addition of spot crypto trading to its E*TRADE platform, according to a Bloomberg report.

根據彭博社的一份報告，摩根士丹利可能會增加現貨加密貨幣貿易的一個因素可能會釋放進一步的零售和高淨值的需求。

Meanwhile, Strategy is planning to raise $21 billion in equity, with part of the funds allocated for additional Bitcoin purchases, highlighting direct corporate demand for the cryptocurrency.

同時，戰略計劃籌集210億美元的股權，其中一部分資金分配給了其他比特幣，強調了公司對加密貨幣的直接需求。

This corporate appetite adds roughly $5.8 billion in unrealized gains to Strategy’s Bitcoin position so far in 2025, considering current market valuations and Strategy’s last reported stock holdings.

考慮到目前的市場估值和策略的最後報導的股票持有，這種企業興趣為策略的比特幣頭寸增加了大約58億美元的未實現的比特幣頭寸。

Another angle is the Trump administration’s proposal for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, a move that has been largely anticipated by crypto traders and could add another dynamic to the narrative.

另一個角度是特朗普政府提出的美國戰略比特幣儲備的提議，這一舉動在很大程度上是由加密貨幣交易者所期望的，可以為敘述增添另一個動態。

Initially, the proposal had a minimal impact on Bitcoin price, suggesting that markets are not yet fully pricing in such a scenario.

最初，該提案對比特幣價格的影響很小，這表明在這種情況下市場尚未完全定價。

However, this plan could position the U.S. government as a large holder of seized assets, given that it already has around 198,000 BTC in its coffers, mainly derived from illicit activities.

但是，該計劃可以將美國政府作為佔領的資產持有人，因為它已經擁有約198,000 BTC的保險箱，主要來自非法活動。

May's Outlook: Technical Breakout, S2F Model Hit

May的前景：技術突破，S2F模型命中

Historically, May has averaged gains of around 7.4% from 2013–2024, albeit with wide variance and occasional corrections (median return just under 1%). Notably, when Bitcoin clears its prior highs in late April, May rallies have tended to carry through further due to portfolio rebalancing and liquidity rotations.

從歷史上看，梅的平均收益比2013 - 2024年平均約7.4％，儘管差異很大和偶爾的校正（中位回報率不到1％）。值得注意的是，當比特幣在4月下旬清除先前的高點時，由於投資組合的重新平衡和流動性輪換，五月集會傾向於進一步進行。

PlanB’s S2F model predicted a “dump before pump” pattern in early April, a thesis that has now been realized with Bitcoin staging a 27% rebound from lows of $74,000 to close April 30 at $94,181.

Planb的S2F模型預測了4月初的“垃圾泵”模式，該論文現已意識到，比特幣的上漲了27％的籃板，從74,000美元到4月30日收於94,181美元。

On-chain data from Glassnode reveals an MVRV golden cross—a bullish metric indicating that overvaluation is easing, which in the past has been observed to occur ahead of substantial price surges.

來自GlassNode的鍊鍊數據顯示了MVRV Golden Cross，這是一個看漲的度量標準，表明高估正在緩解，過去曾觀察到這是在大量價格飆升之前發生的。

By April 8, BTC had bottomed at $74,000, marking a nearly 30% drawdown from January’s $109,000 peak. From there, it rebounded around 24% to mid-$90,000s within a few short weeks.

到4月8日，BTC的底價為74,000美元，標誌著一月份的109,000美元峰值近30％。從那裡開始，它在短短幾週內就可以反彈約24％至90,000美元。

Analysts at Standard Chartered see a path to $120,000 in Q2 2025 if ETF flows and tariff relief continue. CryptoQuant’s scenarios range up to $1

如果ETF流動和關稅的減免持續，則標準特許的分析師在第二季度2025中看到了120,000美元的道路。加密的場景範圍高達$ 1