Bitcoin (BTC) Price Recovers 27% to Close April at $94,181, Setting the Stage for May's Test of Resistance

In late April, Bitcoin price staged a dramatic recovery from a low of $74,000 to close the month at $94,181

April saw a dramatic recovery for Bitcoin price, rebounding from a low of $74,000 to close the month at $94,181 on April 30. This marks a 27% gain over the period, closely aligning with the Stock-to-Flow model’s projected path.

Completing a pennant breakout and avoiding a ‘death cross’ formed the technical highlight, while institutional signals also picked up as reports circulated of Morgan Stanley adding crypto to E*TRADE, and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced plans for a $21 billion equity raise, partly for more Bitcoin.

Combined, these technical and fundamental backdrops set the stage for May’s test: can BTC clear resistance and reclaim its all-time highs?

Bitcoin Price Technical Turnaround in April

After a turbulent start to the year, Bitcoin finally broke out of a descending channel and pennant in mid-April, a bullish sign usually followed by further gains.

The cryptocurrency also managed to avoid a “death cross”—where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day—suggesting that broader selling pressure had receded and sustained bullish pressure remained.

Furthermore, BTC formed a double-bottom near $76,560 and decisively reclaimed $88,830, a key support zone that had stalled December 2024's rally.

On April 23, BTC surged past $92,892 for the first time since early March, marking a rise of over 23% from the month’s low. However, trading volumes had been lagging behind price action, which could temper the strength of any further extensions above $100,000.

Looking ahead, traders will be focusing on resistance levels at $100,000 and $107,000, which could pose challenges to a sustained recovery. On the support side, the breakout point at $92,892 will be closely watched, along with a deeper support zone around $85,000 in case of deeper retracements.

Institutional and Policy Drivers

Despite a strong start to the year, spot-Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows in March, but that trend reversed in April with inflows of $2.9 billion. This brings cumulative year-to-date flows past $39 billion.

One factor that could unlock further retail and high-net-worth demand is Morgan Stanley’s potential addition of spot crypto trading to its E*TRADE platform, according to a Bloomberg report.

Meanwhile, Strategy is planning to raise $21 billion in equity, with part of the funds allocated for additional Bitcoin purchases, highlighting direct corporate demand for the cryptocurrency.

This corporate appetite adds roughly $5.8 billion in unrealized gains to Strategy’s Bitcoin position so far in 2025, considering current market valuations and Strategy’s last reported stock holdings.

Another angle is the Trump administration’s proposal for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, a move that has been largely anticipated by crypto traders and could add another dynamic to the narrative.

Initially, the proposal had a minimal impact on Bitcoin price, suggesting that markets are not yet fully pricing in such a scenario.

However, this plan could position the U.S. government as a large holder of seized assets, given that it already has around 198,000 BTC in its coffers, mainly derived from illicit activities.

May's Outlook: Technical Breakout, S2F Model Hit

Historically, May has averaged gains of around 7.4% from 2013–2024, albeit with wide variance and occasional corrections (median return just under 1%). Notably, when Bitcoin clears its prior highs in late April, May rallies have tended to carry through further due to portfolio rebalancing and liquidity rotations.

PlanB’s S2F model predicted a “dump before pump” pattern in early April, a thesis that has now been realized with Bitcoin staging a 27% rebound from lows of $74,000 to close April 30 at $94,181.

On-chain data from Glassnode reveals an MVRV golden cross—a bullish metric indicating that overvaluation is easing, which in the past has been observed to occur ahead of substantial price surges.

By April 8, BTC had bottomed at $74,000, marking a nearly 30% drawdown from January’s $109,000 peak. From there, it rebounded around 24% to mid-$90,000s within a few short weeks.

Analysts at Standard Chartered see a path to $120,000 in Q2 2025 if ETF flows and tariff relief continue. CryptoQuant’s scenarios range up to $1