比特币（BTC）的价格恢复了27％，至4月收于94,181美元，为5月的电阻测试奠定了基础

在4月下旬，比特币价格从74,000美元的低点恢复了巨大的回收

April saw a dramatic recovery for Bitcoin price, rebounding from a low of $74,000 to close the month at $94,181 on April 30. This marks a 27% gain over the period, closely aligning with the Stock-to-Flow model’s projected path.

4月的比特币价格恢复了巨大的恢复，从4月30日的低点从74,000美元的低点到本月的收盘价为94,181美元。这标志着该期间的27％增长，与股票与流量模型的预期路径紧密相符。

Completing a pennant breakout and avoiding a ‘death cross’ formed the technical highlight, while institutional signals also picked up as reports circulated of Morgan Stanley adding crypto to E*TRADE, and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced plans for a $21 billion equity raise, partly for more Bitcoin.

完成锦标赛的突破并避免了“死亡十字”构成了技术亮点，而机构信号也浮出水面，因为摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的报道向E*贸易增加了加密货币，战略（以前是MicroStrategy）宣布了210亿美元股权的计划，该计划是筹集的210亿美元，部分是为了获得更多比特币。

Combined, these technical and fundamental backdrops set the stage for May’s test: can BTC clear resistance and reclaim its all-time highs?

这些技术和基本背景结合在一起为5月的测试奠定了基础：BTC可以清除阻力并恢复其历史最高点吗？

Bitcoin Price Technical Turnaround in April

4月比特币价格技术周转

After a turbulent start to the year, Bitcoin finally broke out of a descending channel and pennant in mid-April, a bullish sign usually followed by further gains.

在一年的动荡开始之后，比特币终于在4月中旬的下降频道和山南旗爆发出来，通常是一个看涨的标志，然后是进一步的收益。

The cryptocurrency also managed to avoid a “death cross”—where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day—suggesting that broader selling pressure had receded and sustained bullish pressure remained.

加密货币还设法避免了“死亡十字架”（50天移动平均水平低于200天），这表明，更广泛的销售压力已经消退并持续了看涨的压力。

Furthermore, BTC formed a double-bottom near $76,560 and decisively reclaimed $88,830, a key support zone that had stalled December 2024's rally.

此外，BTC在76,560美元接近$ 76,560的情况下形成了一个双重底部，并果断地回收了88,830美元，这是一个关键的支撑区，该区停滞了2024年12月的集会。

On April 23, BTC surged past $92,892 for the first time since early March, marking a rise of over 23% from the month’s low. However, trading volumes had been lagging behind price action, which could temper the strength of any further extensions above $100,000.

4月23日，BTC自3月初以来首次飙升了92,892美元，比该月的低点增长了23％以上。但是，交易量一直落后于价格行动，这可能会缓解超过100,000美元以上的任何进一步扩展的实力。

Looking ahead, traders will be focusing on resistance levels at $100,000 and $107,000, which could pose challenges to a sustained recovery. On the support side, the breakout point at $92,892 will be closely watched, along with a deeper support zone around $85,000 in case of deeper retracements.

展望未来，交易者将重点关注100,000美元和107,000美元的阻力水平，这可能会对持续的恢复构成挑战。在支持方面，将密切关注92,892美元的突破点，以及更深层次的支撑区，约为85,000美元，以防更深层次的回溯。

Institutional and Policy Drivers

机构和政策驱动力

Despite a strong start to the year, spot-Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows in March, but that trend reversed in April with inflows of $2.9 billion. This brings cumulative year-to-date flows past $39 billion.

尽管今年的开端很强，但Spot-Bitcoin ETF在三月份看到了净流出，但这种趋势在4月逆转，流入为29亿美元。这使累计年底流动超过390亿​​美元。

One factor that could unlock further retail and high-net-worth demand is Morgan Stanley’s potential addition of spot crypto trading to its E*TRADE platform, according to a Bloomberg report.

根据彭博社的一份报告，摩根士丹利可能会增加现货加密货币贸易的一个因素可能会释放进一步的零售和高净值的需求。

Meanwhile, Strategy is planning to raise $21 billion in equity, with part of the funds allocated for additional Bitcoin purchases, highlighting direct corporate demand for the cryptocurrency.

同时，战略计划筹集210亿美元的股权，其中一部分资金分配给了其他比特币，强调了公司对加密货币的直接需求。

This corporate appetite adds roughly $5.8 billion in unrealized gains to Strategy’s Bitcoin position so far in 2025, considering current market valuations and Strategy’s last reported stock holdings.

考虑到目前的市场估值和策略的最后报道的股票持有，这种企业兴趣为策略的比特币头寸增加了大约58亿美元的未实现的比特币头寸。

Another angle is the Trump administration’s proposal for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, a move that has been largely anticipated by crypto traders and could add another dynamic to the narrative.

另一个角度是特朗普政府提出的美国战略比特币储备的提议，这一举动在很大程度上是由加密货币交易者所期望的，可以为叙述增添另一个动态。

Initially, the proposal had a minimal impact on Bitcoin price, suggesting that markets are not yet fully pricing in such a scenario.

最初，该提案对比特币价格的影响很小，这表明在这种情况下市场尚未完全定价。

However, this plan could position the U.S. government as a large holder of seized assets, given that it already has around 198,000 BTC in its coffers, mainly derived from illicit activities.

但是，该计划可以将美国政府作为占领的资产持有人，因为它已经拥有约198,000 BTC的保险箱，主要来自非法活动。

May's Outlook: Technical Breakout, S2F Model Hit

May的前景：技术突破，S2F模型命中

Historically, May has averaged gains of around 7.4% from 2013–2024, albeit with wide variance and occasional corrections (median return just under 1%). Notably, when Bitcoin clears its prior highs in late April, May rallies have tended to carry through further due to portfolio rebalancing and liquidity rotations.

从历史上看，梅的平均收益比2013 - 2024年平均约7.4％，尽管差异很大和偶尔的校正（中位回报率不到1％）。值得注意的是，当比特币在4月下旬清除先前的高点时，由于投资组合的重新平衡和流动性轮换，五月集会倾向于进一步进行。

PlanB’s S2F model predicted a “dump before pump” pattern in early April, a thesis that has now been realized with Bitcoin staging a 27% rebound from lows of $74,000 to close April 30 at $94,181.

Planb的S2F模型预测了4月初的“垃圾泵”模式，该论文现已意识到，比特币的上涨了27％的篮板，从74,000美元到4月30日收于94,181美元。

On-chain data from Glassnode reveals an MVRV golden cross—a bullish metric indicating that overvaluation is easing, which in the past has been observed to occur ahead of substantial price surges.

来自GlassNode的链链数据显示了MVRV Golden Cross，这是一个看涨的度量标准，表明高估正在缓解，过去曾观察到这是在大量价格飙升之前发生的。

By April 8, BTC had bottomed at $74,000, marking a nearly 30% drawdown from January’s $109,000 peak. From there, it rebounded around 24% to mid-$90,000s within a few short weeks.

到4月8日，BTC的底价为74,000美元，标志着一月份的109,000美元峰值近30％。从那里开始，它在短短几周内就可以反弹约24％至90,000美元。

Analysts at Standard Chartered see a path to $120,000 in Q2 2025 if ETF flows and tariff relief continue. CryptoQuant’s scenarios range up to $1

如果ETF流动和关税的减免持续，则标准特许的分析师在第二季度2025中看到了120,000美元的道路。加密的场景范围高达$ 1