比特幣（BTC）價格從其急劇拋售中回收，表明它是對沖的不確定性

比特幣（BTC）的價格在5月18日的亞洲交易期間面臨著急劇的4％更正

Key takeaways:

關鍵要點：

Bitcoin (BTC) price recovered from its sharp sell-off from $107,000, suggesting it functions as a hedge against uncertainty for investors reacting to Moody’s recent downgrade of the US credit rating.

比特幣（BTC）價格從107,000美元的急劇拋售中回收起來，這表明它是對穆迪最近降級美國信用評級反應的投資者的不確定性的對沖。

Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa, signaling concerns over the US’s $36 trillion debt and rising deficits. This sparked turbulence in the market, and also saw a spike in US Treasury yields.

穆迪（Moody）從AAA降低了美國的信用評級為AA1，這表明對美國的36萬億美元債務和赤字增加。這引起了市場的動盪，並且在美國財政部產量激增。

Despite the short-term pressure from these macroeconomic shifts, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook appears bullish due to traders being cautious on shorting and the US dollar showing signs of weakness.

儘管這些宏觀經濟轉變造成了短期壓力，但比特幣的長期前景似乎是看好的，因為交易者對短路持謹慎態度和美元表現出虛弱的跡象。

Bitcoin price faced a 4% correction during the Asian trading session on May 19, hitting a stall at an “important level,” according to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. The analytics firm pointed out that Bitcoin’s surge was halted just below $106,600, a critical level where 31,000 BTC are held in a "supply cluster."

根據區塊鏈分析公司GlassNode的數據，比特幣價格在5月19日的亞洲交易會上面臨4％的糾正，達到了“重要水平”的攤位。該分析公司指出，比特幣的激增停止了106,600美元，這是一個關鍵水平，其中31,000 BTC在“供應集群”中持有。

This group of coins, which began accumulating on Dec. 16, 2024, showcases the strong conviction of these investors, who have neither sold nor averaged down significantly despite price fluctuations.

這組硬幣於2024年12月16日開始累積，展示了這些投資者的強烈信念，儘管價格波動，但這些投資者既沒有出售也沒有大量銷售。

BTC price drops as macro headwinds heat up

宏觀逆風加熱時BTC價格下降

The BTC price drop came amid increasing macroeconomic headwinds. These include a historic downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody’s and the anticipation of a potential rise in US Treasury yields, sparking speculation about the near-term trajectory of risk assets like Bitcoin.

BTC的價格下跌是在增加宏觀經濟逆風的情況下。其中包括穆迪（Moody's）對美國信用評級的歷史性降級以及對美國財政部收益率的潛在增加的期望，引發了人們對比特幣等風險資產近期軌蹟的猜測。

After the US markets closed on May 16, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa in a move that marks the first downgrade of the US in the modern era.

美國市場於5月16日關閉後，穆迪的投資者服務將美國的信用評級從AAA降低至AAA，這標誌著現代時代的第一次降級。

Moody’s elaborated on the downgrade, highlighting concerns over the US’s ballooning debt, with projections of federal deficits reaching 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024. Furthermore, interest payments on US debt are poised to claim 30% of federal revenue by 2035, a significant escalation from 18% at present.

穆迪（Moody）在降級上進行了詳細說明，突出了人們對美國債務的關注，到2035年，聯邦赤字的預測到2024年的6.4％達到了GDP的9％。此外，此外，美國債務的利息支付有望在2035年到2035年索賠30％的聯邦收入，從18％起到目前的升級。

This downgrade follows similar actions by S&P in 2011 and Fitch earlier in 2023, and it underscores the unsustainable fiscal path of the US, which is likely to erode investor confidence and contribute to broader market turbulence.

這種降級遵循了S＆P在2011年和2023年初的類似行動，並強調了美國的不可持續的財政道路，這很可能會侵蝕投資者的信心並有助於更廣泛的市場湍流。

The downgrade also comes amid a surge in US Treasury yields, which could exert further impact on the markets. Commencing at 5.53% following the downgrade announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield is anticipated to rise, while the 30-year yield, currently at 4.98%, is also expected to follow suit.

在美國國庫產量的激增之內，降級也可能對市場產生進一步的影響。降級公告後，從5.53％開始，預計10年的國庫收益率將上升，而目前為4.98％的30年收益率也預計也將效仿。

As investors process the implications of higher borrowing costs for the US government, the 30-year Treasury yield is likely to experience a continuation of its upward trajectory.

隨著投資者處理更高借貸成本對美國政府的影響，30年的國庫收益率很可能會延續其上升軌跡。

The Kobeissi newsletter highlighted that past experience with credit downgrades shows a mixed reaction in Treasury yields. After S&P downgraded the US in 2011, we saw a 35% decline in 10-year Treasury yields from a high of 5.3% in December 2011 to a low of 3.5% by March 2012. Conversely, following Fitch’s downgrade earlier in 2023, a 23% increase in 10-year Treasury yields was observed.

Kobeissi通訊強調，過去的信用降級經驗表明，財政收益率的反應不同。在2011年，標準普爾（S＆P）在2011年降級美國後，10年期美國國庫收益率下降了35％，從2011年12月的高度5.3％，到2012年3月的3.5％。相反，在惠譽（Fitch）於2023年初降級後，觀察到10年的國債增加了23％。

However, this time, the rapid spike in 10-year Treasury yields is more aligned with the 2023 pattern, fueled by persistent inflation worries and concerns over the US’s fiscal health. Such macroeconomic shifts are known to influence cryptocurrency prices.

但是，這一次，十年期財政收益率的快速飆升與2023年的模式更加一致，這是由於通貨膨脹的持續擔憂和對美國財政健康的擔憂所吸引。已知這種宏觀經濟轉變會影響加密貨幣價格。

Is short-term pain long-term gain for BTC price

是BTC價格的短期疼痛長期增益

The 4% dump in Bitcoin price on May 19 could be seen as a reaction to these macroeconomic headwinds. As investors digest this news and the implications of higher borrowing costs on risk assets, Bitcoin could face sustained pressure in the short term.

5月19日，比特幣價格的4％垃圾場被視為對這些宏觀經濟逆風的反應。隨著投資者消化這一消息以及較高的借貸成本對風險資產的影響，比特幣在短期內可能面臨持續的壓力。

However, for the long term, there are interesting tidbits that suggest a bullish bias. According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., traders betting on price declines have been “significantly more cautious” in building up their short positions during this bull cycle, comparing it to the 2021 bull market.

但是，從長遠來看，有一些有趣的花絮暗示了看漲的偏見。根據比特幣研究人員Axel Adler Jr.的說法，交易者對價格下降的賭注“在此牛週期中建立短陣容更加謹慎”，將其與2021年的牛市進行了比較。

This observation suggests that, despite the market's volatility, traders are approaching short positions with more caution than they did in the previous bull cycle, which could be seen as a sign of a generally bullish long-term outlook.

該觀察結果表明，儘管市場的波動性，交易者的職位與上一個公牛週期中的謹慎行為更加謹慎，這可以看作是通常看漲的長期前景的標誌。

Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience and served as a hedge during periods of economic turmoil, such as the COVID-19 crisis. In the current climate of macroeconomic uncertainty and distrust in fiat systems, which is aggravated by the US’s worsening fiscal outlook, Bitcoin could benefit.

從歷史上看，比特幣表現出韌性，並在經濟動盪時期（例如Covid-19危機）充當對沖。在當前的宏觀經濟不確定性和對菲亞特系統的不信任的氣氛中，這受到美國財政前景惡化的加劇，比特幣可能會受益。

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of

美元指數（DXY）顯示