比特币（BTC）价格从其急剧抛售中回收，表明它是对冲的不确定性

比特币（BTC）的价格在5月18日的亚洲交易期间面临着急剧的4％更正

Key takeaways:

关键要点：

Bitcoin (BTC) price recovered from its sharp sell-off from $107,000, suggesting it functions as a hedge against uncertainty for investors reacting to Moody’s recent downgrade of the US credit rating.

比特币（BTC）价格从107,000美元的急剧抛售中回收起来，这表明它是对穆迪最近降级美国信用评级反应的投资者的不确定性的对冲。

Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa, signaling concerns over the US’s $36 trillion debt and rising deficits. This sparked turbulence in the market, and also saw a spike in US Treasury yields.

穆迪（Moody）从AAA降低了美国的信用评级为AA1，这表明对美国的36万亿美元债务和赤字增加。这引起了市场的动荡，并且在美国财政部产量激增。

Despite the short-term pressure from these macroeconomic shifts, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook appears bullish due to traders being cautious on shorting and the US dollar showing signs of weakness.

尽管这些宏观经济转变造成了短期压力，但比特币的长期前景似乎是看好的，因为交易者对短路持谨慎态度和美元表现出虚弱的迹象。

Bitcoin price faced a 4% correction during the Asian trading session on May 19, hitting a stall at an “important level,” according to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. The analytics firm pointed out that Bitcoin’s surge was halted just below $106,600, a critical level where 31,000 BTC are held in a "supply cluster."

根据区块链分析公司GlassNode的数据，比特币价格在5月19日的亚洲交易会上面临4％的纠正，达到了“重要水平”的摊位。该分析公司指出，比特币的激增停止了106,600美元，这是一个关键水平，其中31,000 BTC在“供应集群”中持有。

This group of coins, which began accumulating on Dec. 16, 2024, showcases the strong conviction of these investors, who have neither sold nor averaged down significantly despite price fluctuations.

这组硬币于2024年12月16日开始累积，展示了这些投资者的强烈信念，尽管价格波动，但这些投资者既没有出售也没有大量销售。

BTC price drops as macro headwinds heat up

宏观逆风加热时BTC价格下降

The BTC price drop came amid increasing macroeconomic headwinds. These include a historic downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody’s and the anticipation of a potential rise in US Treasury yields, sparking speculation about the near-term trajectory of risk assets like Bitcoin.

BTC的价格下跌是在增加宏观经济逆风的情况下。其中包括穆迪（Moody's）对美国信用评级的历史性降级以及对美国财政部收益率的潜在增加的期望，引发了人们对比特币等风险资产近期轨迹的猜测。

After the US markets closed on May 16, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa in a move that marks the first downgrade of the US in the modern era.

美国市场于5月16日关闭后，穆迪的投资者服务将美国的信用评级从AAA降低至AAA，这标志着现代时代的第一次降级。

Moody’s elaborated on the downgrade, highlighting concerns over the US’s ballooning debt, with projections of federal deficits reaching 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024. Furthermore, interest payments on US debt are poised to claim 30% of federal revenue by 2035, a significant escalation from 18% at present.

穆迪（Moody）在降级上进行了详细说明，突出了人们对美国债务的关注，到2035年，联邦赤字的预测到2024年的6.4％达到了GDP的9％。此外，此外，美国债务的利息支付有望在2035年到2035年索赔30％的联邦收入，从18％起到目前的升级。

This downgrade follows similar actions by S&P in 2011 and Fitch earlier in 2023, and it underscores the unsustainable fiscal path of the US, which is likely to erode investor confidence and contribute to broader market turbulence.

这种降级遵循了S＆P在2011年和2023年初的类似行动，并强调了美国的不可持续的财政道路，这很可能会侵蚀投资者的信心并有助于更广泛的市场湍流。

The downgrade also comes amid a surge in US Treasury yields, which could exert further impact on the markets. Commencing at 5.53% following the downgrade announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield is anticipated to rise, while the 30-year yield, currently at 4.98%, is also expected to follow suit.

在美国国库产量的激增之内，降级也可能对市场产生进一步的影响。降级公告后，从5.53％开始，预计10年的国库收益率将上升，而目前为4.98％的30年收益率也预计也将效仿。

As investors process the implications of higher borrowing costs for the US government, the 30-year Treasury yield is likely to experience a continuation of its upward trajectory.

随着投资者处理更高借贷成本对美国政府的影响，30年的国库收益率很可能会延续其上升轨迹。

The Kobeissi newsletter highlighted that past experience with credit downgrades shows a mixed reaction in Treasury yields. After S&P downgraded the US in 2011, we saw a 35% decline in 10-year Treasury yields from a high of 5.3% in December 2011 to a low of 3.5% by March 2012. Conversely, following Fitch’s downgrade earlier in 2023, a 23% increase in 10-year Treasury yields was observed.

Kobeissi通讯强调，过去的信用降级经验表明，财政收益率的反应不同。在2011年，标准普尔（S＆P）在2011年降级美国后，10年期美国国库收益率下降了35％，从2011年12月的高度5.3％，到2012年3月的3.5％。相反，在惠誉（Fitch）于2023年初降级后，观察到10年的国债增加了23％。

However, this time, the rapid spike in 10-year Treasury yields is more aligned with the 2023 pattern, fueled by persistent inflation worries and concerns over the US’s fiscal health. Such macroeconomic shifts are known to influence cryptocurrency prices.

但是，这一次，十年期财政收益率的快速飙升与2023年的模式更加一致，这是由于通货膨胀的持续担忧和对美国财政健康的担忧所吸引。已知这种宏观经济转变会影响加密货币价格。

Is short-term pain long-term gain for BTC price

是BTC价格的短期疼痛长期增益

The 4% dump in Bitcoin price on May 19 could be seen as a reaction to these macroeconomic headwinds. As investors digest this news and the implications of higher borrowing costs on risk assets, Bitcoin could face sustained pressure in the short term.

5月19日，比特币价格的4％垃圾场被视为对这些宏观经济逆风的反应。随着投资者消化这一消息以及较高的借贷成本对风险资产的影响，比特币在短期内可能面临持续的压力。

However, for the long term, there are interesting tidbits that suggest a bullish bias. According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., traders betting on price declines have been “significantly more cautious” in building up their short positions during this bull cycle, comparing it to the 2021 bull market.

但是，从长远来看，有一些有趣的花絮暗示了看涨的偏见。根据比特币研究人员Axel Adler Jr.的说法，交易者对价格下降的赌注“在此牛周期中建立短阵容更加谨慎”，将其与2021年的牛市进行了比较。

This observation suggests that, despite the market's volatility, traders are approaching short positions with more caution than they did in the previous bull cycle, which could be seen as a sign of a generally bullish long-term outlook.

该观察结果表明，尽管市场的波动性，交易者的职位与上一个公牛周期中的谨慎行为更加谨慎，这可以看作是通常看涨的长期前景的标志。

Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience and served as a hedge during periods of economic turmoil, such as the COVID-19 crisis. In the current climate of macroeconomic uncertainty and distrust in fiat systems, which is aggravated by the US’s worsening fiscal outlook, Bitcoin could benefit.

从历史上看，比特币表现出韧性，并在经济动荡时期（例如Covid-19危机）充当对冲。在当前的宏观经济不确定性和对菲亚特系统的不信任的气氛中，这受到美国财政前景恶化的加剧，比特币可能会受益。

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of

美元指数（DXY）显示