報告發現，儘管比特幣（BTC）價格在減半前創下歷史新高，但仍遵循先前的減半模式

這是市場情報平台 CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 的報告。

Historical data reveals that Bitcoin’s price movements in 2024 closely mirror patterns observed in previous halving years, such as 2016 and 2020.

歷史數據顯示，2024 年比特幣的價格走勢與先前減半年份（例如 2016 年和 2020 年）觀察到的模式密切相關。

This observation was highlighted by Julio Moreno, Head of Research at market intelligence platform CryptoQuant, during an interview on X. Moreno analyzed insights from the “Cumulative Return Index on Halving Years,” a metric that tracks Bitcoin’s price action for every year it experiences a halving.

市場情報平台 CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 在接受 X 採訪時強調了這一觀察結果。

According to the report, Bitcoin’s price movements at the beginning of all four halving years—2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024—exhibited striking similarities. However, one divergence noted this year was a rapid price surge by Bitcoin toward the end of the first quarter.

根據該報告，比特幣在所有四個減半年（2012 年、2016 年、2020 年和 2024 年）年初的價格走勢都表現出驚人的相似性。然而，今年出現的一個分歧是比特幣價格在第一季末迅速飆升。

For perspective, Bitcoin’s uptrend for this cycle commenced as early as September 2023. From this point onward, the premier crypto asset experienced seven consecutive months of sustained gains. This campaign culminated in a new all-time high above $73,000 in March 2024, a month before the 2024 Bitcoin halving.

從長遠來看，比特幣本週期的上漲趨勢早在2023年9月就開始了。該活動在 2024 年 3 月（即 2024 年比特幣減半前一個月）達到了 73,000 美元以上的歷史新高。

This marked a departure from previous cycles, where Bitcoin typically reached a new all-time high after each halving, not before. Analysts attributed the change in trend to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which pumped significant capital into the market. At press time, these ETF products have absorbed over $17 billion in net inflows within seven months.

這標誌著與先前週期的背離，在先前的周期中，比特幣通常在每次減半後（而不是之前）達到新的歷史高點。分析師將趨勢的變化歸因於現貨比特幣 ETF 的推出，這為市場注入了大量資金。截至發稿時，這些 ETF 產品在 7 個月內吸收了超過 170 億美元的淨流入。

After breaching the all-time high in March 2024, Bitcoin faced a correction, dropping by 15% in April. This marked its first monthly loss since September 2023. The losses continued into Q2 2024, but data from the Cumulative Return Index metric indicates that this drop actually brought Bitcoin back on track to levels seen in past cycles.

在 2024 年 3 月突破歷史高點後，比特幣面臨回調，4 月下跌 15%。這是自 2023 年 9 月以來的首次月度虧損。

Despite concerns around the dump, Bitcoin is currently trading at the position it was in past halvings. This suggests that the firstborn cryptocurrency is exactly where it needs to be, as per historical data on the 2016 and 2020 halvings. The only exception is 2012, when Bitcoin spiked 220% from $5 to $16 between May and August.

儘管人們對拋售感到擔憂，但比特幣目前的交易價格與過去減半時的水平相同。根據 2016 年和 2020 年減半的歷史數據，這表明第一個加密貨幣正是它需要的位置。唯一的例外是 2012 年，當時比特幣在 5 月至 8 月期間從 5 美元飆升至 16 美元，飆升 220%。

In 2016 and 2020, BTC largely consolidated from March to August. This confirms that the bearish consolidation that the market is currently experiencing is not unique.

2016 年及 2020 年 3 月至 8 月，BTC 基本盤整。這證實了市場目前正在經歷的看跌盤整並非獨一無二。

However, further data suggests there might be light at the end of the tunnel. In both 2016 and 2020, following the consolidation from Q2 to Q3, BTC recovered toward Q4.

然而，進一步的數據表明隧道盡頭可能有曙光。 2016 年和 2020 年，繼第二季到第三季的盤整之後，BTC 向第四季復甦。

Citing this pattern, Moreno highlighted that if Bitcoin will rebound from the ongoing bearish phase, such a push could come up in the fourth quarter of this year. At press time, Bitcoin trades for $58,405. Market veteran Peter Brandt expects an eventual spike to $92,579.

莫雷諾引用這種模式強調，如果比特幣能夠從持續的看跌階段反彈，這種推動可能會在今年第四季出現。截至發稿時，比特幣交易價格為 58,405 美元。市場資深人士 Peter Brandt 預計最終價格將上漲至 92,579 美元。