报告发现，尽管比特币（BTC）价格在减半前创下历史新高，但仍遵循之前的减半模式

这是市场情报平台 CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 的一份报告。

Historical data reveals that Bitcoin’s price movements in 2024 closely mirror patterns observed in previous halving years, such as 2016 and 2020.

历史数据显示，2024 年比特币的价格走势与之前减半年份（例如 2016 年和 2020 年）观察到的模式密切相关。

This observation was highlighted by Julio Moreno, Head of Research at market intelligence platform CryptoQuant, during an interview on X. Moreno analyzed insights from the “Cumulative Return Index on Halving Years,” a metric that tracks Bitcoin’s price action for every year it experiences a halving.

市场情报平台 CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 在接受 X 采访时强调了这一观察结果。Moreno 分析了“减半年累积回报指数”的见解，该指标跟踪比特币经历减半年份的价格走势。减半。

According to the report, Bitcoin’s price movements at the beginning of all four halving years—2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024—exhibited striking similarities. However, one divergence noted this year was a rapid price surge by Bitcoin toward the end of the first quarter.

根据该报告，比特币在所有四个减半年（2012 年、2016 年、2020 年和 2024 年）年初的价格走势都表现出惊人的相似性。然而，今年出现的一个分歧是比特币价格在第一季度末迅速飙升。

For perspective, Bitcoin’s uptrend for this cycle commenced as early as September 2023. From this point onward, the premier crypto asset experienced seven consecutive months of sustained gains. This campaign culminated in a new all-time high above $73,000 in March 2024, a month before the 2024 Bitcoin halving.

从长远来看，比特币本周期的上涨趋势早在2023年9月就开始了。从那时起，这一首要加密资产经历了连续七个月的持续上涨。该活动在 2024 年 3 月（即 2024 年比特币减半前一个月）达到了 73,000 美元以上的历史新高。

This marked a departure from previous cycles, where Bitcoin typically reached a new all-time high after each halving, not before. Analysts attributed the change in trend to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which pumped significant capital into the market. At press time, these ETF products have absorbed over $17 billion in net inflows within seven months.

这标志着与之前周期的背离，在之前的周期中，比特币通常在每次减半后（而不是之前）达到新的历史高点。分析师将趋势的变化归因于现货比特币 ETF 的推出，这为市场注入了大量资金。截至发稿时，这些 ETF 产品在 7 个月内吸收了超过 170 亿美元的净流入。

After breaching the all-time high in March 2024, Bitcoin faced a correction, dropping by 15% in April. This marked its first monthly loss since September 2023. The losses continued into Q2 2024, but data from the Cumulative Return Index metric indicates that this drop actually brought Bitcoin back on track to levels seen in past cycles.

在 2024 年 3 月突破历史高点后，比特币面临回调，4 月份下跌 15%。这是自 2023 年 9 月以来的首次月度亏损。亏损持续到 2024 年第二季度，但累积回报指数指标的数据表明，这次下跌实际上使比特币回到了过去周期的水平。

Despite concerns around the dump, Bitcoin is currently trading at the position it was in past halvings. This suggests that the firstborn cryptocurrency is exactly where it needs to be, as per historical data on the 2016 and 2020 halvings. The only exception is 2012, when Bitcoin spiked 220% from $5 to $16 between May and August.

尽管人们对抛售感到担忧，但比特币目前的交易价格与过去减半时的水平相同。根据 2016 年和 2020 年减半的历史数据，这表明第一个加密货币正是它需要的位置。唯一的例外是 2012 年，当时比特币在 5 月至 8 月期间从 5 美元飙升至 16 美元，飙升 220%。

In 2016 and 2020, BTC largely consolidated from March to August. This confirms that the bearish consolidation that the market is currently experiencing is not unique.

2016 年和 2020 年 3 月至 8 月，BTC 基本盘整。这证实了市场目前正在经历的看跌盘整并非独一无二。

However, further data suggests there might be light at the end of the tunnel. In both 2016 and 2020, following the consolidation from Q2 to Q3, BTC recovered toward Q4.

然而，进一步的数据表明隧道尽头可能有曙光。 2016 年和 2020 年，继第二季度到第三季度的盘整之后，BTC 向第四季度复苏。

Citing this pattern, Moreno highlighted that if Bitcoin will rebound from the ongoing bearish phase, such a push could come up in the fourth quarter of this year. At press time, Bitcoin trades for $58,405. Market veteran Peter Brandt expects an eventual spike to $92,579.

莫雷诺引用这种模式强调，如果比特币能够从持续的看跌阶段反弹，这种推动可能会在今年第四季度出现。截至发稿时，比特币交易价格为 58,405 美元。市场资深人士 Peter Brandt 预计最终价格将上涨至 92,579 美元。