Bitcoin (BTC) Price Follows Previous Halving Patterns Despite Pre-Halving All-Time High, Report Finds

This is according to a report from Julio Moreno, Head of Research at market intelligence platform CryptoQuant.

Historical data reveals that Bitcoin’s price movements in 2024 closely mirror patterns observed in previous halving years, such as 2016 and 2020.

This observation was highlighted by Julio Moreno, Head of Research at market intelligence platform CryptoQuant, during an interview on X. Moreno analyzed insights from the “Cumulative Return Index on Halving Years,” a metric that tracks Bitcoin’s price action for every year it experiences a halving.

According to the report, Bitcoin’s price movements at the beginning of all four halving years—2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024—exhibited striking similarities. However, one divergence noted this year was a rapid price surge by Bitcoin toward the end of the first quarter.

For perspective, Bitcoin’s uptrend for this cycle commenced as early as September 2023. From this point onward, the premier crypto asset experienced seven consecutive months of sustained gains. This campaign culminated in a new all-time high above $73,000 in March 2024, a month before the 2024 Bitcoin halving.

This marked a departure from previous cycles, where Bitcoin typically reached a new all-time high after each halving, not before. Analysts attributed the change in trend to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which pumped significant capital into the market. At press time, these ETF products have absorbed over $17 billion in net inflows within seven months.

After breaching the all-time high in March 2024, Bitcoin faced a correction, dropping by 15% in April. This marked its first monthly loss since September 2023. The losses continued into Q2 2024, but data from the Cumulative Return Index metric indicates that this drop actually brought Bitcoin back on track to levels seen in past cycles.

Despite concerns around the dump, Bitcoin is currently trading at the position it was in past halvings. This suggests that the firstborn cryptocurrency is exactly where it needs to be, as per historical data on the 2016 and 2020 halvings. The only exception is 2012, when Bitcoin spiked 220% from $5 to $16 between May and August.

In 2016 and 2020, BTC largely consolidated from March to August. This confirms that the bearish consolidation that the market is currently experiencing is not unique.

However, further data suggests there might be light at the end of the tunnel. In both 2016 and 2020, following the consolidation from Q2 to Q3, BTC recovered toward Q4.

Citing this pattern, Moreno highlighted that if Bitcoin will rebound from the ongoing bearish phase, such a push could come up in the fourth quarter of this year. At press time, Bitcoin trades for $58,405. Market veteran Peter Brandt expects an eventual spike to $92,579.