比特幣（BTC）價格預測：更新的投資者樂觀可能會使比特幣（BTC）降到新的歷史最高點

比特幣最近的表現使投資者的樂觀情緒恢復了，過去一個月的資產攀升了13％。

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently been making headlines for its impressive performance, having recovered 13% over the past month. While the flagship asset has yet to claim the $100,000 milestone, several key indicators suggest that a return to previous highs could be on the horizon.

比特幣（BTC）最近因其令人印象深刻的表現而成為頭條新聞，過去一個月恢復了13％。儘管旗艦資產尚未要求這一里程碑，但幾個關鍵指標表明，以前的高點可能會出現。

As investor optimism continues to grow, one of the clearest signs is the sustained drop in exchange-held Bitcoin. When fewer coins are sitting on centralized platforms, it often reflects a shift toward long-term holding — typically a bullish signal.

隨著投資者的樂觀情緒的不斷增長，最明顯的跡象之一是交換擁有比特幣的持續下降。當較少的硬幣坐在集中式平台上時，通常會反映向長期持有的轉變 - 通常是看漲的信號。

Currently, only about 2.47 million BTC remain on exchanges, the lowest in years, hinting at large-scale accumulation. This trend has been ongoing throughout April, with exchange reserves steadily decreasing.

目前，在交易所中只有約247萬BTC，這是多年來最低的，暗示了大規模積累。整個4月，這種趨勢一直在持續，交換儲備穩步下降。

This coincides with sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since early April, institutional players have been steadily increasing their positions, with only a brief pause on April 30, when $56 million worth of BTC was sold. Even so, that sell-off is minor compared to the $4.49 billion in net purchases over the same period.

這與持續流入的比特幣ETF相吻合。自4月初以來，機構參與者一直在穩步提高自己的職位，4月30日僅暫停了一小段時間，當時出售了價值5600萬美元的BTC。即便如此，這種拋售也很小，而同一時期的淨購買淨額為44.9億美元。

However, there was a slight decrease in April’s total compared to March, when institutional investors collectively added $5.1 billion in BTC to their ETFs.

但是，與3月相比，四月的總數略有下降，當時機構投資者在其ETF中統稱為BTC增加了51億美元。

Despite this shift, it appears to be a natural adjustment in buying activity, considering the massive capital that has already flowed into Bitcoin ETFs this year.

儘管發生了這種轉變，但考慮到今年已經流入了比特幣ETF的大量資本，這似乎是一種自然的調整。

According to Glassnode data, the total value of BTC held by these ETFs reached $34.3 billion by April 30, nearly double the $18.4 billion they held at the beginning of the year.

根據玻璃節數據，到4月30日，這些ETF持有的BTC總價值達到343億美元，幾乎是年初持有的184億美元的兩倍。

Furthermore, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, a key indicator of Bitcoin valuation, currently sits at 2.1.

此外，MVRV（市場價值與實現價值）比特幣估值的關鍵指標（目前為2.1）。

Historically, Bitcoin tends to approach cycle tops when this metric approaches 3.7. The current level of 2.1 suggests that there’s still considerable room for upside in Bitcoin’s market valuation before reaching overheated territory.

從歷史上看，當該指標接近3.7時，比特幣傾向於接近週期的頂部。目前的2.1水平表明，在到達過熱領土之前，比特幣的市場估值仍然有很大的上漲空間。

Finally, whale activity is also resurfacing. Analysis of average spot order sizes shows that large investors — those typically capable of making significant price moves — are returning to the market with larger buy orders.

最後，鯨魚活動也在重新鋪面。對平均現貨訂單量的分析表明，大型投資者（通常能夠進行重大價格移動的投資者）以更大的買入訂單返回市場。

This resurgence in whale activity signals their growing confidence, which is crucial for any sustained rally. High-net-worth players tend to accumulate during bear markets and exit during bull markets.

鯨魚活動中的這種複興表明他們的信心日益增長，這對於任何持續的集會至關重要。高淨值球員在熊市和牛市期間傾向於積累。

As they begin accumulating again after a period of inactivity during the cryptocurrency winter, it bodes well for further price gains.

當他們在加密貨幣冬季的不活動期間再次累積時，它們的價格進一步上漲了。

With institutional inflows climbing, exchange reserves dropping, market valuation still below overheated levels, and whales back in accumulation mode, market dynamics appear to be setting the stage for a potential breakout above $100,000 as early as May.

隨著機構流入的攀爬，交易所儲量下降，市場估值仍然低於過熱水平，並以蓄能模式重新捕鯨，市場動態似乎在五月之前就為超過100,000美元的潛在突破奠定了基礎。