比特幣（BTC）價格預測：低隱含波動率，金交叉信號指向新的歷史高點

比特幣的波動率平靜：在BTC價格風暴之前冷靜嗎？

Implied volatility (IV) is a key measure of expected price swings, and Volumex’s 30-day BVI (Bitcoin Volatility Index) has slid to July 2024 lows, hitting 10-month lows.

隱含波動率（IV）是預期價格波動的關鍵衡量標準，而體積的30天BVI（比特幣波動率指數）滑到2024年7月的低點，達到了10個月的低點。

Historically, such periods of “muted” volatility often precede explosive price moves in either direction.

從歷史上看，這種“靜音”波動率的時期通常在爆炸性的價格轉移之前朝任何方向前進。

A bull case scenario that can be interpreted from the ongoing low volatility regime if BTC price holds key support levels.

如果BTC價格保持關鍵支持水平，則可以從持續的低波動率制度中解釋的公牛案例。

Low IV phase coupled with slow grind toward above $105k could lead to a push toward all-time highs (ATH) at $109K.

低IV期，加上慢速磨損至105K美元以上的速度可能會導致以10.9萬美元的價格推向歷史高峰（ATH）。

While the 30-day BVI is sliding lower, the daily chart is close to printing a high-time-frame bullish signal.

雖然30天的BVI滑動較低，但每日圖表即將打印出高級的看漲信號。

The daily BTC price chart shows the 50-day moving average (SMA) nearing a bullish “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA — a classic indicator of long-term upward momentum.

每日BTC價格表顯示了50天的移動平均線（SMA）接近200天SMA以上的看漲“ Golden Cross”，這是長期向上勢頭的經典指標。

The 50-day SMA is currently at around $99,800, and the 200-day SMA is at approximately $98,000.

50天的SMA目前約為99,800美元，200天的SMA約為98,000美元。

The bullish crossover is likely to occur within the week, setting the stage for a potential burst higher.

看漲的跨界可能會在一周內發生，這為潛在的爆發奠定了基礎。

The last time the golden cross flashed on October 27, 2024, BTC price rose by nearly 62% in just 51 days.

黃金十字架上次在2024年10月27日閃爍時，BTC的價格在短短51天內上漲了近62％。

If history repeats itself, the chances of a similar uptrend after the crossover could propel Bitcoin to ATHs and beyond.

如果歷史重演，那麼在跨界之後，類似上升趨勢的機會可能會將比特幣推向ATHS及其他地區。

Where Is Bitcoin Price Now?

比特幣價格現在在哪裡？

The apex cryptocurrency is now trading at around $103,692 at the time of writing, showing no clear sign of directional bias.

Apex加密貨幣現在在寫作時的交易價格約為103,692美元，沒有明顯的方向偏見跡象。

The bulls will try to defend the Fib support at $100.4k, which coincides with the weekly VWAP.

公牛隊將試圖以100.4K的價格為FIB支持辯護，這與每週VWAP一致。

The bears, on the other hand, might attempt to push the price lower to retest the Fib support at $99.8k and $98k, which is a high-conviction “buy-the-dip” zone for the bulls.

另一方面，熊隊可能會試圖將價格推向下降，以重新測試FIB支撐量為99.8K $ 9.8K，這是公牛的高罪名“買入浸入”區。

If the Fib support at $99.8k is broken, the next support level is at $98k, which is followed by the 200-day moving average at $97.7k.

如果FIB支撐為$ 99.8K，則下一個支持水平為$ 98K，隨後是200天的移動平均值為97.7 k。

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to push the price higher, the next resistance level is at the all-time high (ATH) of $109k, which is followed by the Fib extension levels at $114k and $120k.

另一方面，如果公牛設法提高價格，下一個阻力水平為10.9萬美元的歷史最高水平（ATH），隨後是FIB延長水平為114K $ 114K和120K。

After a period of consolidation, the apex cryptocurrency is poised for a breakout.

經過一段時間的合併後，Apex加密貨幣已準備好突破。

The technical indicator that stands out is the 50-day moving average (SMA) approaching the 200-day SMA, setting the stage for a potential golden cross.

脫穎而出的技術指標是接近200天SMA的50天移動平均線（SMA），為潛在的金十字架奠定了基礎。

The bullish crossover of the 50-day SMA through the 200-day SMA, commonly known as the golden cross, is a classic technical indicator that signals a shift in long-term momentum.

通過200天的SMA（通常稱為Golden Cross）的50天SMA的看漲跨界是一個經典的技術指標，它標誌著長期勢頭的轉變。

It occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average.

當較短的移動平均值越過長期移動平均值以上時，就會發生這種情況。

The last time the golden cross flashed on October 27, 2024, BTC price rose by nearly 62% in just 51 days.

黃金十字架上次在2024年10月27日閃爍時，BTC的價格在短短51天內上漲了近62％。

If history repeats itself, the chances of a similar uptrend after the crossover could propel Bitcoin to ATHs and beyond.

如果歷史重演，那麼在跨界之後，類似上升趨勢的機會可能會將比特幣推向ATHS及其他地區。

The apex cryptocurrency is now trading at around $103,692 at the time of writing, showing no clear sign of directional bias.

Apex加密貨幣現在在寫作時的交易價格約為103,692美元，沒有明顯的方向偏見跡象。

The bulls will try to defend the Fib support at $100.4k, which coincides with the weekly VWAP.

公牛隊將試圖以100.4K的價格為FIB支持辯護，這與每週VWAP一致。

The bears, on the other hand, might attempt to push the price lower to retest the Fib support at $99.8k and $98k, which is a high-conviction “buy-the-dip” zone for the bulls.

另一方面，熊隊可能會試圖將價格推向下降，以重新測試FIB支撐量為99.8K $ 9.8K，這是公牛的高罪名“買入浸入”區。

If the Fib support at $99.8k is broken, the next support level is at $98k, which is followed by the 200-day moving average at $97.7k.

如果FIB支撐為$ 99.8K，則下一個支持水平為$ 98K，隨後是200天的移動平均值為97.7 k。

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to push the price higher, the next resistance level is at the all-time high (ATH) of $109k, which is followed by the Fib extension levels at $114k and $120k.

另一方面，如果公牛設法提高價格，下一個阻力水平為10.9萬美元的歷史最高水平（ATH），隨後是FIB延長水平為114K $ 114K和120K。