比特币（BTC）价格预测：低隐含波动率，金交叉信号指向新的历史高点

比特币的波动率平静：在BTC价格风暴之前冷静吗？

Implied volatility (IV) is a key measure of expected price swings, and Volumex’s 30-day BVI (Bitcoin Volatility Index) has slid to July 2024 lows, hitting 10-month lows.

隐含波动率（IV）是预期价格波动的关键衡量标准，而体积的30天BVI（比特币波动率指数）滑到2024年7月的低点，达到了10个月的低点。

Historically, such periods of “muted” volatility often precede explosive price moves in either direction.

从历史上看，这种“静音”波动率的时期通常在爆炸性的价格转移之前朝任何方向前进。

A bull case scenario that can be interpreted from the ongoing low volatility regime if BTC price holds key support levels.

如果BTC价格保持关键支持水平，则可以从持续的低波动率制度中解释的公牛案例。

Low IV phase coupled with slow grind toward above $105k could lead to a push toward all-time highs (ATH) at $109K.

低IV期，加上慢速磨损至105K美元以上的速度可能会导致以10.9万美元的价格推向历史高峰（ATH）。

While the 30-day BVI is sliding lower, the daily chart is close to printing a high-time-frame bullish signal.

虽然30天的BVI滑动较低，但每日图表即将打印出高级的看涨信号。

The daily BTC price chart shows the 50-day moving average (SMA) nearing a bullish “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA — a classic indicator of long-term upward momentum.

每日BTC价格表显示了50天的移动平均线（SMA）接近200天SMA以上的看涨“ Golden Cross”，这是长期向上势头的经典指标。

The 50-day SMA is currently at around $99,800, and the 200-day SMA is at approximately $98,000.

50天的SMA目前约为99,800美元，200天的SMA约为98,000美元。

The bullish crossover is likely to occur within the week, setting the stage for a potential burst higher.

看涨的跨界可能会在一周内发生，这为潜在的爆发奠定了基础。

The last time the golden cross flashed on October 27, 2024, BTC price rose by nearly 62% in just 51 days.

黄金十字架上次在2024年10月27日闪烁时，BTC的价格在短短51天内上涨了近62％。

If history repeats itself, the chances of a similar uptrend after the crossover could propel Bitcoin to ATHs and beyond.

如果历史重演，那么在跨界之后，类似上升趋势的机会可能会将比特币推向ATHS及其他地区。

Where Is Bitcoin Price Now?

比特币价格现在在哪里？

The apex cryptocurrency is now trading at around $103,692 at the time of writing, showing no clear sign of directional bias.

Apex加密货币现在在写作时的交易价格约为103,692美元，没有明显的方向偏见迹象。

The bulls will try to defend the Fib support at $100.4k, which coincides with the weekly VWAP.

公牛队将试图以100.4K的价格为FIB支持辩护，这与每周VWAP一致。

The bears, on the other hand, might attempt to push the price lower to retest the Fib support at $99.8k and $98k, which is a high-conviction “buy-the-dip” zone for the bulls.

另一方面，熊队可能会试图将价格推向下降，以重新测试FIB支撑量为99.8K $ 9.8K，这是公牛的高罪名“买入浸入”区。

If the Fib support at $99.8k is broken, the next support level is at $98k, which is followed by the 200-day moving average at $97.7k.

如果FIB支撑为$ 99.8K，则下一个支持水平为$ 98K，随后是200天的移动平均值为97.7 k。

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to push the price higher, the next resistance level is at the all-time high (ATH) of $109k, which is followed by the Fib extension levels at $114k and $120k.

另一方面，如果公牛设法提高价格，下一个阻力水平为10.9万美元的历史最高水平（ATH），随后是FIB延长水平为114K $ 114K和120K。

After a period of consolidation, the apex cryptocurrency is poised for a breakout.

经过一段时间的合并后，Apex加密货币已准备好突破。

The technical indicator that stands out is the 50-day moving average (SMA) approaching the 200-day SMA, setting the stage for a potential golden cross.

脱颖而出的技术指标是接近200天SMA的50天移动平均线（SMA），为潜在的金十字架奠定了基础。

The bullish crossover of the 50-day SMA through the 200-day SMA, commonly known as the golden cross, is a classic technical indicator that signals a shift in long-term momentum.

通过200天的SMA（通常称为Golden Cross）的50天SMA的看涨跨界是一个经典的技术指标，它标志着长期势头的转变。

It occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average.

当较短的移动平均值越过长期移动平均值以上时，就会发生这种情况。

The last time the golden cross flashed on October 27, 2024, BTC price rose by nearly 62% in just 51 days.

黄金十字架上次在2024年10月27日闪烁时，BTC的价格在短短51天内上涨了近62％。

If history repeats itself, the chances of a similar uptrend after the crossover could propel Bitcoin to ATHs and beyond.

如果历史重演，那么在跨界之后，类似上升趋势的机会可能会将比特币推向ATHS及其他地区。

The apex cryptocurrency is now trading at around $103,692 at the time of writing, showing no clear sign of directional bias.

Apex加密货币现在在写作时的交易价格约为103,692美元，没有明显的方向偏见迹象。

The bulls will try to defend the Fib support at $100.4k, which coincides with the weekly VWAP.

公牛队将试图以100.4K的价格为FIB支持辩护，这与每周VWAP一致。

The bears, on the other hand, might attempt to push the price lower to retest the Fib support at $99.8k and $98k, which is a high-conviction “buy-the-dip” zone for the bulls.

另一方面，熊队可能会试图将价格推向下降，以重新测试FIB支撑量为99.8K $ 9.8K，这是公牛的高罪名“买入浸入”区。

If the Fib support at $99.8k is broken, the next support level is at $98k, which is followed by the 200-day moving average at $97.7k.

如果FIB支撑为$ 99.8K，则下一个支持水平为$ 98K，随后是200天的移动平均值为97.7 k。

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to push the price higher, the next resistance level is at the all-time high (ATH) of $109k, which is followed by the Fib extension levels at $114k and $120k.

另一方面，如果公牛设法提高价格，下一个阻力水平为10.9万美元的历史最高水平（ATH），随后是FIB延长水平为114K $ 114K和120K。