Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Low Implied Volatility, Golden Cross Signal Point to New All-Time Highs

Bitcoin's Volatility Lull: Calm Before the BTC Price Storm?

Implied volatility (IV) is a key measure of expected price swings, and Volumex’s 30-day BVI (Bitcoin Volatility Index) has slid to July 2024 lows, hitting 10-month lows.

Historically, such periods of “muted” volatility often precede explosive price moves in either direction.

A bull case scenario that can be interpreted from the ongoing low volatility regime if BTC price holds key support levels.

Low IV phase coupled with slow grind toward above $105k could lead to a push toward all-time highs (ATH) at $109K.

While the 30-day BVI is sliding lower, the daily chart is close to printing a high-time-frame bullish signal.

The daily BTC price chart shows the 50-day moving average (SMA) nearing a bullish “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA — a classic indicator of long-term upward momentum.

The 50-day SMA is currently at around $99,800, and the 200-day SMA is at approximately $98,000.

The bullish crossover is likely to occur within the week, setting the stage for a potential burst higher.

The last time the golden cross flashed on October 27, 2024, BTC price rose by nearly 62% in just 51 days.

If history repeats itself, the chances of a similar uptrend after the crossover could propel Bitcoin to ATHs and beyond.

Where Is Bitcoin Price Now?

The apex cryptocurrency is now trading at around $103,692 at the time of writing, showing no clear sign of directional bias.

The bulls will try to defend the Fib support at $100.4k, which coincides with the weekly VWAP.

The bears, on the other hand, might attempt to push the price lower to retest the Fib support at $99.8k and $98k, which is a high-conviction “buy-the-dip” zone for the bulls.

If the Fib support at $99.8k is broken, the next support level is at $98k, which is followed by the 200-day moving average at $97.7k.

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to push the price higher, the next resistance level is at the all-time high (ATH) of $109k, which is followed by the Fib extension levels at $114k and $120k.

After a period of consolidation, the apex cryptocurrency is poised for a breakout.

The technical indicator that stands out is the 50-day moving average (SMA) approaching the 200-day SMA, setting the stage for a potential golden cross.

The bullish crossover of the 50-day SMA through the 200-day SMA, commonly known as the golden cross, is a classic technical indicator that signals a shift in long-term momentum.

It occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average.

The last time the golden cross flashed on October 27, 2024, BTC price rose by nearly 62% in just 51 days.

If history repeats itself, the chances of a similar uptrend after the crossover could propel Bitcoin to ATHs and beyond.

The apex cryptocurrency is now trading at around $103,692 at the time of writing, showing no clear sign of directional bias.

The bulls will try to defend the Fib support at $100.4k, which coincides with the weekly VWAP.

The bears, on the other hand, might attempt to push the price lower to retest the Fib support at $99.8k and $98k, which is a high-conviction “buy-the-dip” zone for the bulls.

If the Fib support at $99.8k is broken, the next support level is at $98k, which is followed by the 200-day moving average at $97.7k.

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to push the price higher, the next resistance level is at the all-time high (ATH) of $109k, which is followed by the Fib extension levels at $114k and $120k.