比特幣（BTC）價格預測：BTC/USD Rally至近106,000美元可能不是其峰值，$ 122K的近期目標

比特幣的BTC/USD Rally至近106,000美元可能還不是它的頂峰，技術模型和宏流量保持一致，以支持近期目標目標$ 122,000

Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) rally to almost $106,000 may not yet be at its peak, with technical models and macro flows aligning to support a near-term price target of $122,000, according to a report by 10x Research.

根據10X Research的一份報告，比特幣（BTC/USD）的集會至近106,000美元尚未達到頂峰，根據10X Research的一份報告，技術模型和宏流量以支持122,000美元的近期目標目標。

The move follows a well-defined breakout above the $84,500 level in mid-April and has been reinforced by strong spot buying and expanding institutional interest, according to a market update from May 12.

根據5月12日的市場更新，此舉是在4月12日中期的$ 84,500水平上方明確的突破之後，並通過強勁的現貨購買和擴大機構利益而加強了。

This week's data from CoinShares further underlies the bullish thesis. Digital asset investment products globally recorded $882 million in inflows last week, marking four consecutive weeks of growth and bringing year-to-date inflows to $6.7 billion.

本週Coinshares的數據進一步是看漲論文的基礎。上週，全球數字資產投資產品的流入量為8.82億美元，標誌著連續四個星期的增長，並將年終的流入達到67億美元。

Bitcoin accounted for $867 million of that, continuing its dominance in institutional allocations.

比特幣佔其中的8.67億美元，繼續在機構分配中占主導地位。

Notably, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have now seen a cumulative net inflow of $62.9 billion since launching in January 2024, a record high.

值得注意的是，自2024年1月推出以來，美國上市的比特幣ETF現在已經看到累計淨流入629億美元。

Regionally, the United States saw the largest inflows with $840 million, followed by Germany and Australia, while Canada and Hong Kong saw small outflows. CoinShares attributes the increase in inflows to "a global rise in M2 money supply, stagflationary risks in the U.S. and several U.S. states approving Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset."

在區域上，美國的流入最多，有8.4億美元，其次是德國和澳大利亞，而加拿大和香港則看到了少量流出。 Coinshares將流入的增加歸因於“ M2貨幣供應的全球增長，美國的停滯風險以及美國幾個州批准比特幣作為戰略儲備資產”。

From a market structure standpoint, Bitcoin’s rally has unfolded in $16,000 increments, with clear resistance and support levels being established at $73,000, $84,500, and $95,000, all of which have been either broken or successfully retested.

從市場結構的角度來看，比特幣的集會以16,000美元的增量增長，明確的阻力和支持水平以73,000美元，84,500美元和95,000美元的價格建立，所有這些都被打破或成功重新測試。

After peaking at close to $106,000, analysts suggest that momentum remains intact, with technical models now indicating $122,000 as the next major target.

在達到近106,000美元的高峰之後，分析師表明，動量仍然完好無損，現在技術模型表示為$ 122,000作為下一個主要目標。

The trade thesis has been driven by long call spreads, specifically $100,000/$110,000, capitalizing on low implied volatility, which remains around 45% despite the ongoing price surge.

貿易論文是由長時間銷售的驅動力，特別是100,000美元/$ 110,000，利用低隱含波動率，儘管價格飆升，但仍約有45％。

"Being long on call spreads was the superior risk-adjusted trade," the report stated.

報告說：“長期以來的通話差距是卓越的風險調整貿易。”

Traders are now advised to consider rolling into higher strikes such as $110,000/$120,000.

現在，建議交易者考慮涉及更高的罷工，例如$ 110,000/$ 120,000。

Interestingly, the rally to $95,000 was fueled not by leveraged futures but primarily by spot buying, particularly from institutional players like Strategy MSTR and ETF inflows, while many futures traders attempted to short the move.

有趣的是，這次集會至95,000美元不是由槓桿期貨推動的，而是主要是通過現場購買的，尤其是從諸如MSTR和ETF流入的機構參與者中獲得的，而許多期貨交易者則試圖短暫地做出這一舉動。

The failure of these counter-trades has added further weight to the bullish breakout.

這些反貿易的失敗增加了看漲的突破。

Macroeconomic conditions have also provided a supportive backdrop.

宏觀經濟條件也提供了支持性背景。

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently downplayed tariff-related inflation as "potentially a one-time event," and tomorrow's CPI print is expected to remain at 2.4%. If inflation stays below 3% and U.S. economic data shows resilience, the incentive to exit positions may remain low. Political developments, particularly a pivot toward tax cuts and deregulation, are also cited as tailwinds.

美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）最近將與關稅相關的通貨膨脹率輕描淡寫為“可能一次性活動”，明天的CPI印刷品預計將保持2.4％。如果通貨膨脹率保持在3％以下，而美國的經濟數據顯示出彈性，那麼退出職位的動機可能仍然很低。政治發展，特別是針對減稅和放鬆管制的樞紐，也​​被認為是逆風。

Although Ethereum (ETH/USD) experienced a significant price increase during the same period, its fund inflows remained limited at just $1.5 million, according to CoinShares.

根據Coinshares的數據，儘管以太坊（ETH/USD）在同一時期的價格大幅上漲，但其基金流入量僅為150萬美元。

Meanwhile, Sui (SUI/USD) attracted $11.7 million in inflows last week, surpassing Solana (SOL/USD), which saw outflows of $3.4 million. On a year-to-date basis, Sui has now pulled in $84 million, overtaking Solana's $76 million.

同時，SUI（SUI/USD）上週吸引了1,170萬美元的流入，超過了Solana（SOL/USD），後流量為340萬美元。 SUI從年初到期，現已增加了8400萬美元，超過了Solana的7600萬美元。

Despite a complex macro backdrop, Bitcoin’s price action remains spot-driven and momentum-led, and the combination of technical breakouts and record-setting institutional flows makes the $122,000 target increasingly viable.

儘管宏觀背景很複雜，但比特幣的價格動作仍然以換檔和勢頭為主導，而且技術突破和創紀錄的機構流程的結合使$ 122,000的目標目標越來越可行。