Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: BTC/USD Rally to Almost $106,000 May Not Be Its Peak, $122K Near-Term Target

Bitcoin's BTC/USD rally to almost $106,000 may not yet be its peak, with technical models and macro flows aligning to support a near-term price target of $122,000

Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) rally to almost $106,000 may not yet be at its peak, with technical models and macro flows aligning to support a near-term price target of $122,000, according to a report by 10x Research.

The move follows a well-defined breakout above the $84,500 level in mid-April and has been reinforced by strong spot buying and expanding institutional interest, according to a market update from May 12.

This week's data from CoinShares further underlies the bullish thesis. Digital asset investment products globally recorded $882 million in inflows last week, marking four consecutive weeks of growth and bringing year-to-date inflows to $6.7 billion.

Bitcoin accounted for $867 million of that, continuing its dominance in institutional allocations.

Notably, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have now seen a cumulative net inflow of $62.9 billion since launching in January 2024, a record high.

Regionally, the United States saw the largest inflows with $840 million, followed by Germany and Australia, while Canada and Hong Kong saw small outflows. CoinShares attributes the increase in inflows to "a global rise in M2 money supply, stagflationary risks in the U.S. and several U.S. states approving Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset."

From a market structure standpoint, Bitcoin’s rally has unfolded in $16,000 increments, with clear resistance and support levels being established at $73,000, $84,500, and $95,000, all of which have been either broken or successfully retested.

After peaking at close to $106,000, analysts suggest that momentum remains intact, with technical models now indicating $122,000 as the next major target.

The trade thesis has been driven by long call spreads, specifically $100,000/$110,000, capitalizing on low implied volatility, which remains around 45% despite the ongoing price surge.

"Being long on call spreads was the superior risk-adjusted trade," the report stated.

Traders are now advised to consider rolling into higher strikes such as $110,000/$120,000.

Interestingly, the rally to $95,000 was fueled not by leveraged futures but primarily by spot buying, particularly from institutional players like Strategy MSTR and ETF inflows, while many futures traders attempted to short the move.

The failure of these counter-trades has added further weight to the bullish breakout.

Macroeconomic conditions have also provided a supportive backdrop.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently downplayed tariff-related inflation as "potentially a one-time event," and tomorrow's CPI print is expected to remain at 2.4%. If inflation stays below 3% and U.S. economic data shows resilience, the incentive to exit positions may remain low. Political developments, particularly a pivot toward tax cuts and deregulation, are also cited as tailwinds.

Although Ethereum (ETH/USD) experienced a significant price increase during the same period, its fund inflows remained limited at just $1.5 million, according to CoinShares.

Meanwhile, Sui (SUI/USD) attracted $11.7 million in inflows last week, surpassing Solana (SOL/USD), which saw outflows of $3.4 million. On a year-to-date basis, Sui has now pulled in $84 million, overtaking Solana's $76 million.

Despite a complex macro backdrop, Bitcoin’s price action remains spot-driven and momentum-led, and the combination of technical breakouts and record-setting institutional flows makes the $122,000 target increasingly viable.