比特币（BTC）价格预测：BTC/USD Rally至近106,000美元可能不是其峰值，$ 122K的近期目标

比特币的BTC/USD Rally至近106,000美元可能还不是它的顶峰，技术模型和宏流量保持一致，以支持近期目标目标$ 122,000

Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) rally to almost $106,000 may not yet be at its peak, with technical models and macro flows aligning to support a near-term price target of $122,000, according to a report by 10x Research.

根据10X Research的一份报告，比特币（BTC/USD）的集会至近106,000美元尚未达到顶峰，根据10X Research的一份报告，技术模型和宏流量以支持122,000美元的近期目标目标。

The move follows a well-defined breakout above the $84,500 level in mid-April and has been reinforced by strong spot buying and expanding institutional interest, according to a market update from May 12.

根据5月12日的市场更新，此举是在4月12日中期的$ 84,500水平上方明确的突破之后，并通过强劲的现货购买和扩大机构利益而加强了。

This week's data from CoinShares further underlies the bullish thesis. Digital asset investment products globally recorded $882 million in inflows last week, marking four consecutive weeks of growth and bringing year-to-date inflows to $6.7 billion.

本周Coinshares的数据进一步是看涨论文的基础。上周，全球数字资产投资产品的流入量为8.82亿美元，标志着连续四个星期的增长，并将年终的流入达到67亿美元。

Bitcoin accounted for $867 million of that, continuing its dominance in institutional allocations.

比特币占其中的8.67亿美元，继续在机构分配中占主导地位。

Notably, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have now seen a cumulative net inflow of $62.9 billion since launching in January 2024, a record high.

值得注意的是，自2024年1月推出以来，美国上市的比特币ETF现在已经看到累计净流入629亿美元。

Regionally, the United States saw the largest inflows with $840 million, followed by Germany and Australia, while Canada and Hong Kong saw small outflows. CoinShares attributes the increase in inflows to "a global rise in M2 money supply, stagflationary risks in the U.S. and several U.S. states approving Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset."

在区域上，美国的流入最多，有8.4亿美元，其次是德国和澳大利亚，而加拿大和香港则看到了少量流出。 Coinshares将流入的增加归因于“ M2货币供应的全球增长，美国的停滞风险以及美国几个州批准比特币作为战略储备资产”。

From a market structure standpoint, Bitcoin’s rally has unfolded in $16,000 increments, with clear resistance and support levels being established at $73,000, $84,500, and $95,000, all of which have been either broken or successfully retested.

从市场结构的角度来看，比特币的集会以16,000美元的增量增长，明确的阻力和支持水平以73,000美元，84,500美元和95,000美元的价格建立，所有这些都被打破或成功重新测试。

After peaking at close to $106,000, analysts suggest that momentum remains intact, with technical models now indicating $122,000 as the next major target.

在达到近106,000美元的高峰之后，分析师表明，动量仍然完好无损，现在技术模型表示为$ 122,000作为下一个主要目标。

The trade thesis has been driven by long call spreads, specifically $100,000/$110,000, capitalizing on low implied volatility, which remains around 45% despite the ongoing price surge.

贸易论文是由长时间销售的驱动力，特别是100,000美元/$ 110,000，利用低隐含波动率，尽管价格飙升，但仍约有45％。

"Being long on call spreads was the superior risk-adjusted trade," the report stated.

报告说：“长期以来的通话差距是卓越的风险调整贸易。”

Traders are now advised to consider rolling into higher strikes such as $110,000/$120,000.

现在，建议交易者考虑涉及更高的罢工，例如$ 110,000/$ 120,000。

Interestingly, the rally to $95,000 was fueled not by leveraged futures but primarily by spot buying, particularly from institutional players like Strategy MSTR and ETF inflows, while many futures traders attempted to short the move.

有趣的是，这次集会至95,000美元不是由杠杆期货推动的，而是主要是通过现场购买的，尤其是从诸如MSTR和ETF流入的机构参与者中获得的，而许多期货交易者则试图短暂地做出这一举动。

The failure of these counter-trades has added further weight to the bullish breakout.

这些反贸易的失败增加了看涨的突破。

Macroeconomic conditions have also provided a supportive backdrop.

宏观经济条件也提供了支持性背景。

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently downplayed tariff-related inflation as "potentially a one-time event," and tomorrow's CPI print is expected to remain at 2.4%. If inflation stays below 3% and U.S. economic data shows resilience, the incentive to exit positions may remain low. Political developments, particularly a pivot toward tax cuts and deregulation, are also cited as tailwinds.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）最近将与关税相关的通货膨胀率轻描淡写为“可能一次性活动”，明天的CPI印刷品预计将保持2.4％。如果通货膨胀率保持在3％以下，而美国的经济数据显示出弹性，那么退出职位的动机可能仍然很低。政治发展，特别是针对减税和放松管制的枢纽，也​​被认为是逆风。

Although Ethereum (ETH/USD) experienced a significant price increase during the same period, its fund inflows remained limited at just $1.5 million, according to CoinShares.

根据Coinshares的数据，尽管以太坊（ETH/USD）在同一时期的价格大幅上涨，但其基金流入量仅为150万美元。

Meanwhile, Sui (SUI/USD) attracted $11.7 million in inflows last week, surpassing Solana (SOL/USD), which saw outflows of $3.4 million. On a year-to-date basis, Sui has now pulled in $84 million, overtaking Solana's $76 million.

同时，SUI（SUI/USD）上周吸引了1,170万美元的流入，超过了Solana（SOL/USD），后流量为340万美元。 SUI从年初到期，现已增加了8400万美元，超过了Solana的7600万美元。

Despite a complex macro backdrop, Bitcoin’s price action remains spot-driven and momentum-led, and the combination of technical breakouts and record-setting institutional flows makes the $122,000 target increasingly viable.

尽管宏观背景很复杂，但比特币的价格动作仍然以换档和势头为主导，而且技术突破和创纪录的机构流程的结合使$ 122,000的目标目标越来越可行。