比特幣（BTC -0.17％）的價格徘徊在其歷史最高點附近，有望更高空間

隨著比特幣（BTC -0.00％）的價格徘徊在其歷史最高點上，幾乎觸及了100,000美元的水平，因此，加密貨幣之王接下來可能會有一些情況。讓我們探索三個，從公牛論文開始，說明為什麼硬幣可能會更高。

Bitcoin's (BTC -0.17%) price has hovered near its all-time highs of almost tocuching the $112,000 level, and there are a few scenarios for what the king of cryptocurrencies might do next.

比特幣（BTC -0.17％）的價格已徘徊在其歷史最高的高處，幾乎是$ 112,000的水平，而加密貨幣之王接下來可能會有幾種情況。

Let's explore three, starting with the bull thesis for why the coin is likely to go higher.

讓我們探索三個，從公牛論文開始，說明為什麼硬幣可能會更高。

The bull thesis is playing out already

公牛論文已經發揮了

The most obvious possibility for Bitcoin over the coming days, months, and even years is for it to continue gaining in value.

在接下來的幾天，幾個月甚至幾年中，比特幣最明顯的可能性是它繼續獲得價值。

This process is supported by a powerful mixture of different forces at the moment, including but not limited to:

目前，不同力量的強大混合體支持了此過程，包括但不限於：

The foundation for each of those very formidable trends is also the one factor that's responsible for making Bitcoin a valuable asset in the first place.

這些非常強大的趨勢的基礎也是負責使比特幣成為寶貴資產的一個因素。

There can only ever be 21 million Bitcoin in circulation. It only gets harder to mine as time goes by. As more buyers look to secure some coins for themselves, they are forced to compete more intensely over a pie that keeps getting smaller, and that creates a structural impulse for prices to continue rising.

流通中只能有2100萬比特幣。隨著時間的流逝，它只會變得越來越困難。隨著越來越多的買家希望自己獲得一些硬幣，他們被迫在不斷越來越小的餡餅上進行更激烈的競爭，這為價格上漲創造了結構性衝動。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

The widespread and simultaneous recognition of all of the above facts is pushing sentiment about the coin to an extreme. It may soon even border on a fit of genuine speculative euphoria. If that happens, the $112,000 level might look like a small blip on the chart within the next few years -- assuming there isn't anything to rain on the parade.

對上述所有事實的廣泛和同時認識的是將硬幣的情感推向極端。它甚至很快就會與真正的投機性欣快感相提並論。如果發生這種情況，那麼在未來幾年內，$ 112,000的水平可能看起來像是圖表上的小碎片 - 假設遊行隊伍沒有任何雨水。

The bear thesis isn't wrong

熊論文沒錯

The bear case for Bitcoin is not in denial of any of the bullish factors or trends.

比特幣的熊案並不否認任何看漲因素或趨勢。

Instead, it's a grounded perspective which points out that Bitcoin is not actually an asset that's totally independent of the traditional financial markets, and that those traditional markets are more likely to be in trouble than they are to charge higher.

取而代之的是，這是一個紮實的觀點，指出比特幣實際上並不是完全獨立於傳統金融市場的資產，而且這些傳統市場比收費更高的可能性更大。

Take a look at this chart:

看一下此圖表：

SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts.

YCHARTS的間諜總回報數據數據。

As you can see, on average, Bitcoin's price has a fairly strong correlation with the stock market, although there are periods when the two decouple.

如您所見，平均而言，比特幣的價格與股票市場有著相當密切的相關性，儘管有兩個時期。

In the bear scenario, there are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about stocks, including:

在熊情況下，有很多理由對股票感到悲觀，包括：

And that's before even getting into Bitcoin-specific issues, like its volatility, which undermines popular narratives about its new status as digital gold.

這是在涉及比特幣特定問題（例如它的波動率）之前，這破壞了有關其數字黃金的新地位的流行敘事。

Overall, the bears are correct that the global macro landscape is very uncertain right now. Still, it's important to recognize that uncertainty is not the same as realized downside risk, even if it feels similarly bad to experience.

總體而言，熊是正確的，現在全球宏觀景觀目前還不確定。儘管如此，重要的是要認識到不確定性與實現的下行風險並不相同，即使感覺同樣難以體驗。

The most likely outcome is for the price to go higher

最有可能的結果是價格提高

The trouble with the bear scenario is that its outlook is inherently shortsighted in terms of its objections to the bull thesis for Bitcoin.

熊情景的麻煩在於，它的前景本質上是對比特幣對公牛論文的反對意見。

Trade wars and economic problems eventually end, and uncertainty tends to ultimately give way to more stable arrangements even if they result in a macro situation that's less favorable than before. High valuations in the stock market could become rectified by stocks falling (potentially dragging Bitcoin down too), or they could become rectified by companies reporting growth that justifies their pricing. The coin's price can fall a lot, but it probably won't stay down forever.

貿易戰和經濟問題最終結束了，即使它們導致宏觀情況比以前不利，不確定性也最終會讓位於更穩定的安排。股票市場的高估值可能會因股票下跌而糾正（可能也將比特幣拖下），或者可能會因報告證明其定價合理的公司而糾正。硬幣的價格可能會下跌很多，但可能不會永遠落下。

During the time it takes for those issues to wrap themselves up, Bitcoin's circulating supply will still be getting smaller and smaller. The asset might be correlated with the stock market, but it isn't a company, and its protocol defines its own set of rules that have an independent impact on its price. Therefore, it is not likely that the bears will be permanently correct about the future of Bitcoin; even if they're right and the price goes down from here, it will likely only do that for a while before its hard-coded supply factors kick in and stop the bleeding.

在這些問題包裝自己所需的時間裡，比特幣的循環供應仍然越來越小。資產可能與股票市場相關，但不是一家公司，其協議定義了自己的一套對其價格產生獨立影響的規則。因此，熊不太可能對比特幣的未來永久糾正。即使它們是正確的並且價格從這裡下降，它也可能只能在其硬編碼的供應因子開始並停止出血之前進行一段時間。

So the base case for Bitcoin is that it will go higher. If that doesn't happen in the next few months, it will happen eventually. You don't need to bet on this coin going to the moon to capture some of the upside. All you need is patience and to steadily buy it via dollar-cost averaging.

因此，比特幣的基本案例是它會越高。如果在接下來的幾個月內沒有發生這種情況，那將最終發生。您無需押注這枚硬幣上月球以捕獲一些上行空間。您需要的只是耐心，並通過美元成本平均穩步購買。