比特币（BTC -0.17％）的价格徘徊在其历史最高点附近，有望更高空间

随着比特币（BTC -0.00％）的价格徘徊在其历史最高点上，几乎触及了100,000美元的水平，因此，加密货币之王接下来可能会有一些情况。让我们探索三个，从公牛论文开始，说明为什么硬币可能会更高。

Bitcoin's (BTC -0.17%) price has hovered near its all-time highs of almost tocuching the $112,000 level, and there are a few scenarios for what the king of cryptocurrencies might do next.

比特币（BTC -0.17％）的价格已徘徊在其历史最高的高处，几乎是$ 112,000的水平，而加密货币之王接下来可能会有几种情况。

Let's explore three, starting with the bull thesis for why the coin is likely to go higher.

让我们探索三个，从公牛论文开始，说明为什么硬币可能会更高。

The bull thesis is playing out already

公牛论文已经发挥了

The most obvious possibility for Bitcoin over the coming days, months, and even years is for it to continue gaining in value.

在接下来的几天，几个月甚至几年中，比特币最明显的可能性是它继续获得价值。

This process is supported by a powerful mixture of different forces at the moment, including but not limited to:

目前，不同力量的强大混合体支持了此过程，包括但不限于：

The foundation for each of those very formidable trends is also the one factor that's responsible for making Bitcoin a valuable asset in the first place.

这些非常强大的趋势的基础也是负责使比特币成为宝贵资产的一个因素。

There can only ever be 21 million Bitcoin in circulation. It only gets harder to mine as time goes by. As more buyers look to secure some coins for themselves, they are forced to compete more intensely over a pie that keeps getting smaller, and that creates a structural impulse for prices to continue rising.

流通中只能有2100万比特币。随着时间的流逝，它只会变得越来越困难。随着越来越多的买家希望自己获得一些硬币，他们被迫在不断越来越小的馅饼上进行更激烈的竞争，这为价格上涨创造了结构性冲动。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

The widespread and simultaneous recognition of all of the above facts is pushing sentiment about the coin to an extreme. It may soon even border on a fit of genuine speculative euphoria. If that happens, the $112,000 level might look like a small blip on the chart within the next few years -- assuming there isn't anything to rain on the parade.

对上述所有事实的广泛和同时认识的是将硬币的情感推向极端。它甚至很快就会与真正的投机性欣快感相提并论。如果发生这种情况，那么在未来几年内，$ 112,000的水平可能看起来像是图表上的小碎片 - 假设游行队伍没有任何雨水。

The bear thesis isn't wrong

熊论文没错

The bear case for Bitcoin is not in denial of any of the bullish factors or trends.

比特币的熊案并不否认任何看涨因素或趋势。

Instead, it's a grounded perspective which points out that Bitcoin is not actually an asset that's totally independent of the traditional financial markets, and that those traditional markets are more likely to be in trouble than they are to charge higher.

取而代之的是，这是一个扎实的观点，指出比特币实际上并不是完全独立于传统金融市场的资产，而且这些传统市场比收费更高的可能性更大。

Take a look at this chart:

看一下此图表：

SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts.

YCHARTS的间谍总回报数据数据。

As you can see, on average, Bitcoin's price has a fairly strong correlation with the stock market, although there are periods when the two decouple.

如您所见，平均而言，比特币的价格与股票市场有着相当密切的相关性，尽管有两个时期。

In the bear scenario, there are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about stocks, including:

在熊情况下，有很多理由对股票感到悲观，包括：

And that's before even getting into Bitcoin-specific issues, like its volatility, which undermines popular narratives about its new status as digital gold.

这是在涉及比特币特定问题（例如它的波动率）之前，这破坏了有关其数字黄金的新地位的流行叙事。

Overall, the bears are correct that the global macro landscape is very uncertain right now. Still, it's important to recognize that uncertainty is not the same as realized downside risk, even if it feels similarly bad to experience.

总体而言，熊是正确的，现在全球宏观景观目前还不确定。尽管如此，重要的是要认识到不确定性与实现的下行风险并不相同，即使感觉同样难以体验。

The most likely outcome is for the price to go higher

最有可能的结果是价格提高

The trouble with the bear scenario is that its outlook is inherently shortsighted in terms of its objections to the bull thesis for Bitcoin.

熊情景的麻烦在于，它的前景本质上是对比特币对公牛论文的反对意见。

Trade wars and economic problems eventually end, and uncertainty tends to ultimately give way to more stable arrangements even if they result in a macro situation that's less favorable than before. High valuations in the stock market could become rectified by stocks falling (potentially dragging Bitcoin down too), or they could become rectified by companies reporting growth that justifies their pricing. The coin's price can fall a lot, but it probably won't stay down forever.

贸易战和经济问题最终结束了，即使它们导致宏观情况比以前不利，不确定性也最终会让位于更稳定的安排。股票市场的高估值可能会因股票下跌而纠正（可能也将比特币拖下），或者可能会因报告证明其定价合理的公司而纠正。硬币的价格可能会下跌很多，但可能不会永远落下。

During the time it takes for those issues to wrap themselves up, Bitcoin's circulating supply will still be getting smaller and smaller. The asset might be correlated with the stock market, but it isn't a company, and its protocol defines its own set of rules that have an independent impact on its price. Therefore, it is not likely that the bears will be permanently correct about the future of Bitcoin; even if they're right and the price goes down from here, it will likely only do that for a while before its hard-coded supply factors kick in and stop the bleeding.

在这些问题包装自己所需的时间里，比特币的循环供应仍然越来越小。资产可能与股票市场相关，但不是一家公司，其协议定义了自己的一套对其价格产生独立影响的规则。因此，熊不太可能对比特币的未来永久纠正。即使它们是正确的并且价格从这里下降，它也可能只能在其硬编码的供应因子开始并停止出血之前进行一段时间。

So the base case for Bitcoin is that it will go higher. If that doesn't happen in the next few months, it will happen eventually. You don't need to bet on this coin going to the moon to capture some of the upside. All you need is patience and to steadily buy it via dollar-cost averaging.

因此，比特币的基本案例是它会越高。如果在接下来的几个月内没有发生这种情况，那将最终发生。您无需押注这枚硬币上月球以捕获一些上行空间。您需要的只是耐心，并通过美元成本平均稳步购买。