根據Power Curve趨勢，比特幣（BTC）價格可能在2025年第四季度達到200,000美元

比特幣以100-150天的滯後遵循黃金的價格趨勢。

Key takeaways:

關鍵要點：

Based on power curve trends, Bitcoin may hit $200,000 in Q4 2025.

根據功率曲線趨勢，比特幣在第4季度2025年可能達到200,000美元。

Bitcoin follows gold’s price trend with a 100-150 day lag.

比特幣以100-150天的滯後遵循黃金的價格趨勢。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has rallied 11% this week, its best weekly return in 2025 and its highest seven-day growth since early November 2024. Bitcoin also reached $95,000 on April 25 for the first time since Feb. 24.

比特幣（BTC）的價格在本週上漲了11％，其在2025年的最佳每週回報率和自2024年11月初以來的最高7天增長。比特幣自2月24日以來的第一次4月25日達到了95,000美元。

21st Capital co-founder Sina mentioned that Bitcoin reclaimed the power-law price. The power law's predictive accuracy stems from Bitcoin's network growth following Metcalfe's Law, where value scales with the square of users.

21st Capital聯合創始人Sina提到比特幣收回了權力法。權力法的預測準確性源於梅特卡夫定律之後比特幣的網絡增長，其中價值與用戶廣場相比。

Based on Sina’s Bitcoin Quantile Model, reclaiming the power-law price keeps BTC on track to hit a price target of $130,000 and $163,000 before the end of 2025.

根據Sina的比特幣分位數模型，收回Power-Laws價格可以使BTC保持正軌達到2025年底之前的價格目標130,000美元和163,000美元。

As illustrated in the chart, Bitcoin is currently in the “Transition” range, where BTC accumulation occurs. Once it breaks into the “Acceleration” zone, the crypto asset enters the rally's 33% to 66% range, progressively targeting $106,000, $130,000, and $163,000 over the next few months.

如圖所示，比特幣當前處於BTC積累發生的“過渡”範圍內。一旦進入“加速度”區域，加密資產將進入拉力賽的33％至66％的範圍，在未來幾個月內逐漸以$ 106,000，130,000美元和163,000美元的目標為目標。

However, anonymous Bitcoin analyst apsk32 predicted BTC’s price target could be as high as $200,000 in 2025. The prediction is based on "Bitcoin power curve time contours," which overlay Bitcoin’s price movements across four-year cycles (2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025). The chart suggests a strong performance in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, with the analyst noting that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle remains intact. The analyst said,

但是，匿名比特幣分析師APSK32預測，BTC的目標目標可能高達2025年的20萬美元。該預測基於“比特幣功率曲線時間輪廓”，該輪廓覆蓋了比特幣在四年循環中的價格變動（2013，2017，2017，2021和2025）。該圖表明，在2025年第三季度和第四季度的表現很強，分析師指出比特幣的歷史四年周期仍然完好無損。分析師說，

This analysis is interesting but ultimately depends on how one views the Bitcoin cycles and if they hold true in the long term.

該分析很有趣，但最終取決於人們如何看待比特幣週期以及它們是否長期成立。

Gold-Bitcoin lag may repeat Q4 rally

金 - 比型​​幣滯後可能會重複第四季度集會

Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin and gold have posted new highs in the market, with each asset outperforming the other during specific periods.

自2024年初以來，比特幣和黃金在市場上發布了新的高點，在特定時期，每個資產的表現都優於另一個資產。

As illustrated in the chart, Bitcoin and gold achieved new highs between March and August 2024. However, in Q3 2024, gold spearheaded the rally, surpassing Bitcoin's performance. By Q4, Bitcoin regained momentum, outpacing the precious metal and maintaining its lead until March 2025, when gold again took the lead.

如圖表所示，比特幣和黃金在2024年3月至8月之間達到了新的高點。但是，在2024年第三季度，黃金帶領拉力賽，超過了比特幣的表現。到第四季度，比特幣恢復了動力，超過了貴金屬並保持領先優勢，直到2025年3月，當時黃金再次領先。

Gold is still leading BTC but has dropped 6% since hitting new highs, while Bitcoin has gained 11%. Cointelegraph reported that BTC tends to follow gold’s directional bias with a lag of 100-150 days. Based on that narrative, it is possible that Bitcoin could lead gold in the coming week.Similarly, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to a new three-year low on April 21, which further fueled the likelihood of a rally for risk assets.

黃金仍然領先於BTC，但自達到新高點以來已下跌6％，而比特幣上漲了11％。 Cointelegraph報導說，BTC傾向於遵循Gold的定向偏置，延遲為100-150天。基於這種敘述，比特幣有可能在未來的一周內引領黃金。相似，美元指數（DXY）在4月21日下降到了新的三年低點，這進一步加劇了風險資產集會的可能性。

Cointelegraph reported that multi-year DXY lows have been historically bullish for Bitcoin. Crypto analyst 'Venture Founder' also pointed out,

Cointelegraph報導說，多年DXY低點歷史上一直看漲比特幣。加密分析師“ Venture創始人”也指出，

New 3-year lows on the dollar index today. Historically very bullish for Bitcoin.

今天的美元指數的新3年低點。從歷史上看，比特幣非常看好。