根据Power Curve趋势，比特币（BTC）价格可能在2025年第四季度达到200,000美元

比特币以100-150天的滞后遵循黄金的价格趋势。

Key takeaways:

关键要点：

Based on power curve trends, Bitcoin may hit $200,000 in Q4 2025.

根据功率曲线趋势，比特币在第4季度2025年可能达到200,000美元。

Bitcoin follows gold’s price trend with a 100-150 day lag.

比特币以100-150天的滞后遵循黄金的价格趋势。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has rallied 11% this week, its best weekly return in 2025 and its highest seven-day growth since early November 2024. Bitcoin also reached $95,000 on April 25 for the first time since Feb. 24.

比特币（BTC）的价格在本周上涨了11％，其在2025年的最佳每周回报率和自2024年11月初以来的最高7天增长。比特币自2月24日以来的第一次4月25日达到了95,000美元。

21st Capital co-founder Sina mentioned that Bitcoin reclaimed the power-law price. The power law's predictive accuracy stems from Bitcoin's network growth following Metcalfe's Law, where value scales with the square of users.

21st Capital联合创始人Sina提到比特币收回了权力法。权力法的预测准确性源于梅特卡夫定律之后比特币的网络增长，其中价值与用户广场相比。

Based on Sina’s Bitcoin Quantile Model, reclaiming the power-law price keeps BTC on track to hit a price target of $130,000 and $163,000 before the end of 2025.

根据Sina的比特币分位数模型，收回Power-Laws价格可以使BTC保持正轨达到2025年底之前的价格目标130,000美元和163,000美元。

As illustrated in the chart, Bitcoin is currently in the “Transition” range, where BTC accumulation occurs. Once it breaks into the “Acceleration” zone, the crypto asset enters the rally's 33% to 66% range, progressively targeting $106,000, $130,000, and $163,000 over the next few months.

如图所示，比特币当前处于BTC积累发生的“过渡”范围内。一旦进入“加速度”区域，加密资产将进入拉力赛的33％至66％的范围，在未来几个月内逐渐以$ 106,000，130,000美元和163,000美元的目标为目标。

However, anonymous Bitcoin analyst apsk32 predicted BTC’s price target could be as high as $200,000 in 2025. The prediction is based on "Bitcoin power curve time contours," which overlay Bitcoin’s price movements across four-year cycles (2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025). The chart suggests a strong performance in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, with the analyst noting that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle remains intact. The analyst said,

但是，匿名比特币分析师APSK32预测，BTC的目标目标可能高达2025年的20万美元。该预测基于“比特币功率曲线时间轮廓”，该轮廓覆盖了比特币在四年循环中的价格变动（2013，2017，2017，2021和2025）。该图表明，在2025年第三季度和第四季度的表现很强，分析师指出比特币的历史四年周期仍然完好无损。分析师说，

This analysis is interesting but ultimately depends on how one views the Bitcoin cycles and if they hold true in the long term.

该分析很有趣，但最终取决于人们如何看待比特币周期以及它们是否长期成立。

Gold-Bitcoin lag may repeat Q4 rally

金 - 比型​​币滞后可能会重复第四季度集会

Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin and gold have posted new highs in the market, with each asset outperforming the other during specific periods.

自2024年初以来，比特币和黄金在市场上发布了新的高点，在特定时期，每个资产的表现都优于另一个资产。

As illustrated in the chart, Bitcoin and gold achieved new highs between March and August 2024. However, in Q3 2024, gold spearheaded the rally, surpassing Bitcoin's performance. By Q4, Bitcoin regained momentum, outpacing the precious metal and maintaining its lead until March 2025, when gold again took the lead.

如图表所示，比特币和黄金在2024年3月至8月之间达到了新的高点。但是，在2024年第三季度，黄金带领拉力赛，超过了比特币的表现。到第四季度，比特币恢复了动力，超过了贵金属并保持领先优势，直到2025年3月，当时黄金再次领先。

Gold is still leading BTC but has dropped 6% since hitting new highs, while Bitcoin has gained 11%. Cointelegraph reported that BTC tends to follow gold’s directional bias with a lag of 100-150 days. Based on that narrative, it is possible that Bitcoin could lead gold in the coming week.Similarly, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to a new three-year low on April 21, which further fueled the likelihood of a rally for risk assets.

黄金仍然领先于BTC，但自达到新高点以来已下跌6％，而比特币上涨了11％。 Cointelegraph报道说，BTC倾向于遵循Gold的定向偏置，延迟为100-150天。基于这种叙述，比特币有可能在未来的一周内引领黄金。相似，美元指数（DXY）在4月21日下降到了新的三年低点，这进一步加剧了风险资产集会的可能性。

Cointelegraph reported that multi-year DXY lows have been historically bullish for Bitcoin. Crypto analyst 'Venture Founder' also pointed out,

Cointelegraph报道说，多年DXY低点历史上一直看涨比特币。加密分析师“ Venture创始人”也指出，

New 3-year lows on the dollar index today. Historically very bullish for Bitcoin.

今天的美元指数的新3年低点。从历史上看，比特币非常看好。