擊中新ATH後，比特幣（BTC）價格可能會跌至100,000美元

5月21日，比特幣（BTC）擴大了盤中收益，以在美國的Coinbase Exchange上建立了111,903美元的新ATH。近四個月後，這次錄製高點吸引了6.071億美元的現貨比特幣

On May 21, Bitcoin (BTC) extended intraday gains to set up a new ATH of $111,903 on the US-based Coinbase exchange. After nearly four months, this push to record highs attracted $607.1 million in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in the United States. Despite this bullish occasion, investors and traders must be cautious of a potential BTC price crash to $100,000. Here are four reasons why.

5月21日，比特幣（BTC）擴大了盤中收益，以在美國的Coinbase Exchange上建立了111,903美元的新ATH。在將近四個月的時間裡，這一努力在美國吸引了6.071億美元的現貨比特幣ETF流入。儘管有一個看漲的時刻，投資者和交易員必須對潛在的BTC價格崩潰至100,000美元持謹慎態度。這是為什麼四個原因。

Here’s Why Bitcoin (BTC) Price May Crash to $100,000

這就是為什麼比特幣（BTC）價格可能崩潰至100,000美元

Although the BTC trading above the $110,000 all-time high is bullish, investors must exercise caution as multiple warning signals are flashing, hinting at a short-term correction.

儘管BTC交易超過了110,000美元的歷史最高高價，但投資者必須謹慎行事，因為多個警告信號正在閃爍，這暗示了短期更正。

Apart from the above reasons, BTC price action over the past few weeks is reminiscent of a range-bound fractal that hints at a correction to the range low. In Bitcoin’s case, analyst RektProof is looking for a Bitcoin (BTC) price crash to $100,000.

除上述原因外，過去幾週的BTC價格行動讓人聯想到一個範圍內的分形，該分形暗示了對低範圍的校正。就比特幣而言，Rektproof的分析師正在尋找比特幣（BTC）的價格崩潰，至100,000美元。

In a separate Telegram post, RektProof noted, “Finding it difficult to long some of these Alts as BTC trends up.” Due to the rising Bitcoin dominance and continued ascent in BTC price, the analyst notes that he might be “forced to sit out and stay flat UNTIL we form a new mid term range.” He highlights $100,000 as a key point of interest, where the trader could take action.

Rektproof在另一篇電報帖子中指出：“發現隨著BTC趨勢的增加很難長時間。”由於比特幣的統治地位和BTC價格的上升持續上升，分析師指出，他可能“被迫坐下來保持平穩，直到我們形成新的中期範圍”。他強調了100,000美元作為關鍵點，交易者可以採取行動。

With this bearish Bitcoin price prediction, let’s explore four key reasons why a correction to $100,000 is more than likely as BTC hits a new ATH.

通過這種看跌的比特幣價格預測，讓我們探索校正100,000美元的四個關鍵原因，因為BTC擊中了新的ATH。

Bitcoin “Muted” Implied Volatility Hints Uncertainty

比特幣“靜音”隱含波動率提示不確定性

Volmex’s 30-day Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) ranges around 49.73, a 10-month low, while BTC price is setting higher highs. This divergence shows that the investors aren’t sure of a sustained BTC price breakout above $110,000.

Volmex的30天比特幣隱含波動率指數（BVIV）的範圍約為49.73，低10個月，而BTC價格則設定了更高的高點。這種分歧表明，投資者不確定BTC價格突破超過110,000美元。

CME’s OI & Annualized Basis for BTC Remains Flat

CME的OI和BTC年度基礎保持平坦

Bitcoin Open Interest on the CME remains below January 2025 lows, showing a lack of interest from sophisticated investors. BTC’s CME annualized basis, the ratio of spot price and futures price, further illustrates this lack of interest.

比特幣對CME的開放興趣仍然低於2025年1月的低點，表明先進的投資者缺乏興趣。 BTC的CME年化基礎是現貨價格和期貨價格的比率，進一步說明了這種缺乏興趣。

These indicators highlight how this BTC price rally is driven mainly by a few institutions accumulating BTC for their treasury purposes.

這些指標強調了該BTC價格集會是如何主要由一些用於國庫目的的機構累積的機構驅動的。

Blockchain Data shows Potential Top formation After Bitcoin Price ATH

區塊鏈數據顯示了比特幣價格之後的潛在最高構造

Between May 2 and 22, the number of new addresses and daily active addresses interacting with the Bitcoin blockchain decreased. However, Bitcoin price is setting higher highs during the same period, showing a non-conformity between investor interest and the recent rally. This bearish divergence shows that investors aren’t interested in BTC at current price levels.

在5月2日至22日之間，與比特幣區塊鏈相互作用的新地址和每日活動地址的數量減少。但是，比特幣價格在同一時期設定了更高的高價，顯示投資者的利益與最近的集會之間的不合格。這種看跌的差異表明，投資者對當前價格水平的BTC不感興趣。

Unrealized Profits In Danger Zone, Signal Reversal Likely

危險區域中未實現的利潤，信號逆轉可能

Santiment’s 30-day MVRV ratio tracks the average profit/loss of investors that purchased Bitcoin (BTC) over the past month. Currently, this index ranges just above 10%, which shows that investors who bought BTC in the past month are at an average profit of 10%. Typically, when the MVRV ratio enters the 10% to 15% range, Bitcoin price triggers a reversal due to profit-taking.

Santiment的30天MVRV比率跟踪了過去一個月購買比特幣（BTC）的投資者的平均利潤/損失。目前，該指數範圍略高於10％，這表明在過去一個月購買BTC的投資者平均利潤為10％。通常，當MVRV比率進入10％至15％的範圍時，比特幣價格由於獲利而觸發了逆轉。

Since the MVRV ratio is in this danger zone, the chances of reversal due to profit-taking are high, which is another reason why Bitcoin price could crash lower.

由於MVRV比率處於此危險區域，因此由於獲利而導致的逆轉機會很高，這是比特幣價格可能崩潰的另一個原因。