比特幣（BTC）預測市場分配了在年底之前保留六位數狀態的相當可能的可能性

比特幣的分析師和愛好者在超過100,000美元的門檻上徘徊在100,000美元的門檻之上後，正在精心剖析每一個價格舉動

Bitcoin (BTC) has been hovering above the $100,000 threshold for over a week, prompting analysts and enthusiasts to closely examine every price move for clues to its next direction. Meanwhile, prediction markets are assigning significant likelihood to bitcoin retaining its six-figure status by year’s end.

比特幣（BTC）一直徘徊在一周以上的100,000美元門檻以上，促使分析師和發燒友密切檢查了每一個價格轉移的每一個線索，以邁向下一個方向。同時，預測市場為比特幣在年底之前保留其六位數的身份分配了很大的可能性。

As decentralized, blockchain-based platforms like Polymarket and regulated U.S. markets like Kalshi become increasingly popular for forecasting future outcomes—from political elections to financial markets—they have also become the go-to destinations for bitcoin price predictions this year.

隨著分散的，基於區塊鏈的平台，例如Polymarket和Concormed US市場，例如Kalshi等美國市場越來越受歡迎，從預測未來的成果（從政治選舉到金融市場）也越來越受歡迎，它們也已成為今年比特幣價格預測的首選目的地。

Among the many forecasts available on these platforms is a "greater than or equal to" market on Polymarket, which pays out if bitcoin stays above $100,000 at year’s end. With $9.51 million in trading volume, participants place an 87% probability on bitcoin trading at $110,000 or higher by Dec. 31, 2025.

在這些平台上可用的眾多預測中，Polmarket上的“大於或等於”市場，如果比特幣在年底停留在100,000美元以上，則可以支付。參與者的交易量為951萬美元，到2025年12月31日，參與者將比特幣交易的可能性為110,000美元或更高。

This particular wager assigns a 73% probability to BTC breaching $120,000, and a 61% likelihood of testing $130,000 by the year’s end. Moreover, 37% of Polymarket market participants see $150,000 as attainable, while 17% are bold enough to bet on $200,000.

這種特殊的賭注分配了73％的概率，以違反120,000美元的損壞，並在年底之前測試$ 130,000的可能性為61％。此外，有37％的聚物市場參與者認為150,000美元是可實現的，而17％的參與者則足夠大膽，可以下注200,000美元。

A $250,000 threshold carries a 10% probability, and a small but intrepid 3% envision BTC reaching seven figures. In the lower price ranges, 38% anticipate bitcoin trading closer to $70,000, and 17% foresee a slide toward $50,000. Interestingly, 5% of bettors expect BTC to sink to $20,000 by year’s end.

$ 250,000的門檻具有10％的概率，一個小而勇敢的3％設想BTC達到了7個數字。在較低的價格範圍內，有38％的比特幣交易將接近70,000美元，而17％的比特幣交易幅度為50,000美元。有趣的是，預計BTC預計到年底將下降到20,000美元。

In another market on Kalshi, which is focused on single yes/no propositions, the question is "Will bitcoin hit $150K?" There’s a 30% chance that Kalshi bettors will get paid out on this particular bet, which is sti ll relatively high considering the question is framed over a long-term time horizon—implied here is that there’s a 70% chance the market will close below that level.

在關注單個是/否命題的Kalshi的另一個市場中，問題是“比特幣會達到15萬美元？”考慮到這個問題在長期的時間範圍內被構成的問題是，Kalshi Bettors有30％的機會在此特定的賭注上得到報酬，這是相對較高的，這裡的可能性是，市場可能會在該水平以下的70％的機會接近該水平。

Kalshi bettors assign an 18% probability of bitcoin reaching $150,000 by October and a 6% probability by July.

Kalshi Bettors分配了18％的比特幣的概率，到10月，到7月的概率為6％。

With two weeks left in May and featuring $210,766 in volume, another Polymarket wager implies a 48% probability that BTC will hit a new all-time high by month’s end.

5月還剩兩個星期，並以210,766美元的價格提供，另一個Polymarket下注意味著BTC在月底之前將達到歷史新高的新高度的概率為48％。

This collection of price predictions from various prediction markets showcases a blend of caution and optimism from betting participants, who are prepared to put their money where their beliefs lie. These figures suggest that price swings may continue despite the possibility of new all-time highs being reached.

來自各種預測市場的價格預測的收藏表明，謹慎和樂觀的押注參與者，他們準備將錢放在信念所在的位置。這些數字表明，儘管有可能達到新的高潮，但價格波動可能會繼續下去。