Bitcoin (BTC) Prediction Markets Assign Considerable Likelihood of Preserving Six-Figure Status by Year's End

Having lingered above the $100,000 threshold for over a week, bitcoin's analysts and enthusiasts are meticulously dissecting every price move

Bitcoin (BTC) has been hovering above the $100,000 threshold for over a week, prompting analysts and enthusiasts to closely examine every price move for clues to its next direction. Meanwhile, prediction markets are assigning significant likelihood to bitcoin retaining its six-figure status by year’s end.

As decentralized, blockchain-based platforms like Polymarket and regulated U.S. markets like Kalshi become increasingly popular for forecasting future outcomes—from political elections to financial markets—they have also become the go-to destinations for bitcoin price predictions this year.

Among the many forecasts available on these platforms is a "greater than or equal to" market on Polymarket, which pays out if bitcoin stays above $100,000 at year’s end. With $9.51 million in trading volume, participants place an 87% probability on bitcoin trading at $110,000 or higher by Dec. 31, 2025.

This particular wager assigns a 73% probability to BTC breaching $120,000, and a 61% likelihood of testing $130,000 by the year’s end. Moreover, 37% of Polymarket market participants see $150,000 as attainable, while 17% are bold enough to bet on $200,000.

A $250,000 threshold carries a 10% probability, and a small but intrepid 3% envision BTC reaching seven figures. In the lower price ranges, 38% anticipate bitcoin trading closer to $70,000, and 17% foresee a slide toward $50,000. Interestingly, 5% of bettors expect BTC to sink to $20,000 by year’s end.

In another market on Kalshi, which is focused on single yes/no propositions, the question is "Will bitcoin hit $150K?" There’s a 30% chance that Kalshi bettors will get paid out on this particular bet, which is sti ll relatively high considering the question is framed over a long-term time horizon—implied here is that there’s a 70% chance the market will close below that level.

Kalshi bettors assign an 18% probability of bitcoin reaching $150,000 by October and a 6% probability by July.

With two weeks left in May and featuring $210,766 in volume, another Polymarket wager implies a 48% probability that BTC will hit a new all-time high by month’s end.

This collection of price predictions from various prediction markets showcases a blend of caution and optimism from betting participants, who are prepared to put their money where their beliefs lie. These figures suggest that price swings may continue despite the possibility of new all-time highs being reached.