比特币（BTC）预测市场分配了在年底之前保留六位数状态的相当可能的可能性

比特币的分析师和爱好者在超过100,000美元的门槛上徘徊在100,000美元的门槛之上后，正在精心剖析每一个价格举动

Bitcoin (BTC) has been hovering above the $100,000 threshold for over a week, prompting analysts and enthusiasts to closely examine every price move for clues to its next direction. Meanwhile, prediction markets are assigning significant likelihood to bitcoin retaining its six-figure status by year’s end.

比特币（BTC）一直徘徊在一周以上的100,000美元门槛以上，促使分析师和发烧友密切检查了每一个价格转移的每一个线索，以迈向下一个方向。同时，预测市场为比特币在年底之前保留其六位数的身份分配了很大的可能性。

As decentralized, blockchain-based platforms like Polymarket and regulated U.S. markets like Kalshi become increasingly popular for forecasting future outcomes—from political elections to financial markets—they have also become the go-to destinations for bitcoin price predictions this year.

随着分散的，基于区块链的平台，例如Polymarket和Concormed US市场，例如Kalshi等美国市场越来越受欢迎，从预测未来的成果（从政治选举到金融市场）也越来越受欢迎，它们也已成为今年比特币价格预测的首选目的地。

Among the many forecasts available on these platforms is a "greater than or equal to" market on Polymarket, which pays out if bitcoin stays above $100,000 at year’s end. With $9.51 million in trading volume, participants place an 87% probability on bitcoin trading at $110,000 or higher by Dec. 31, 2025.

在这些平台上可用的众多预测中，Polmarket上的“大于或等于”市场，如果比特币在年底停留在100,000美元以上，则可以支付。参与者的交易量为951万美元，到2025年12月31日，参与者将比特币交易的可能性为110,000美元或更高。

This particular wager assigns a 73% probability to BTC breaching $120,000, and a 61% likelihood of testing $130,000 by the year’s end. Moreover, 37% of Polymarket market participants see $150,000 as attainable, while 17% are bold enough to bet on $200,000.

这种特殊的赌注分配了73％的概率，以违反120,000美元的损坏，并在年底之前测试$ 130,000的可能性为61％。此外，有37％的聚物市场参与者认为150,000美元是可实现的，而17％的参与者则足够大胆，可以下注200,000美元。

A $250,000 threshold carries a 10% probability, and a small but intrepid 3% envision BTC reaching seven figures. In the lower price ranges, 38% anticipate bitcoin trading closer to $70,000, and 17% foresee a slide toward $50,000. Interestingly, 5% of bettors expect BTC to sink to $20,000 by year’s end.

$ 250,000的门槛具有10％的概率，一个小而勇敢的3％设想BTC达到了7个数字。在较低的价格范围内，有38％的比特币交易将接近70,000美元，而17％的比特币交易幅度为50,000美元。有趣的是，预计BTC预计到年底将下降到20,000美元。

In another market on Kalshi, which is focused on single yes/no propositions, the question is "Will bitcoin hit $150K?" There’s a 30% chance that Kalshi bettors will get paid out on this particular bet, which is sti ll relatively high considering the question is framed over a long-term time horizon—implied here is that there’s a 70% chance the market will close below that level.

在关注单个是/否命题的Kalshi的另一个市场中，问题是“比特币会达到15万美元？”考虑到这个问题在长期的时间范围内被构成的问题是，Kalshi Bettors有30％的机会在此特定的赌注上得到报酬，这是相对较高的，这里的可能性是，市场可能会在该水平以下的70％的机会接近该水平。

Kalshi bettors assign an 18% probability of bitcoin reaching $150,000 by October and a 6% probability by July.

Kalshi Bettors分配了18％的比特币的概率，到10月，到7月的概率为6％。

With two weeks left in May and featuring $210,766 in volume, another Polymarket wager implies a 48% probability that BTC will hit a new all-time high by month’s end.

5月还剩两个星期，并以210,766美元的价格提供，另一个Polymarket下注意味着BTC在月底之前将达到历史新高的新高度的概率为48％。

This collection of price predictions from various prediction markets showcases a blend of caution and optimism from betting participants, who are prepared to put their money where their beliefs lie. These figures suggest that price swings may continue despite the possibility of new all-time highs being reached.

来自各种预测市场的价格预测的收藏表明，谨慎和乐观的押注参与者，他们准备将钱放在信念所在的位置。这些数字表明，尽管有可能达到新的高潮，但价格波动可能会继续下去。