Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes說

儘管海斯認為最終目標是不可否認的，但他警告說，這不會是平穩的旅程。

The path for Bitcoin’s (BTC) journey to $1 million is still open, at least according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. While Hayes believes in the ultimate goal, he warns that the ride won’t be smooth.

至少根據Bitmex的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes的說法，比特幣（BTC）前往100萬美元的旅程的道路仍然開放。儘管海斯相信最終目標，但他警告說，這次旅程不會平穩。

In his latest essay, titled "Fatty Fatty Boom Boom," Hayes describes the pessimistic state of the U.S. economy, comparing it to the nation's expanding waistline: bloated, unhealthy, and in denial. However, he sees Bitcoin as a potential way out.

海耶斯在他的最新文章《脂肪脂肪繁榮》中描述了美國經濟的悲觀狀態，將其與國家不斷擴大的腰圍進行了比較：腫，不健康和否認。但是，他認為比特幣是潛在的出路。

Through his pessimistic lens, Hayes highlighted the Federal Reserve's inability to refrain from "turning on the money printing press." He predicts rising inflation, higher volatility, and repeated government interventions – all of which, he says, are fueling Bitcoin's price rise.

海斯通過悲觀的鏡頭強調了美聯儲無法避免“打開貨幣印刷機”。他預測通貨膨脹率上升，波動性更高以及一再進行政府乾預措施 - 他說，所有這些都在推動比特幣的價格上漲。

In an interview, Hayes elaborated on his views, suggesting that Bitcoin could potentially hit the $150,000 mark this year, before altcoins start to follow the upward trend.

海耶斯在接受采訪時闡述了他的觀點，這表明比特幣可能會在今年達到15萬美元的分數，然後altcoins開始跟進上升趨勢。

"It looks a lot like 2022," Hayes said, referring to a combination of market fear, global uncertainty, and loose central bank policy. He adds:

海斯說：“看起來很像2022年。”他補充說：

"They will go back to printing money. Again."

“他們將回到印刷錢。再次。”

Next Round: Capital Control

下一輪：資本控制

In his essay, Arthur Hayes warns that the U.S.'s next political move will no longer be import tariffs, but a more subtle and hidden strategy: capital controls.

亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）在他的文章中警告說，美國的下一個政治舉動將不再是進口關稅，而是一種更微妙和隱藏的戰略：資本控制。

Hayes predicts that as foreign capital begins to flee from U.S. assets – such as bonds, stocks, and property – the government, particularly the White House, may take steps to curb this capital flight. One of them is to tax foreign investments coming into the U.S.

海耶斯預測，隨著外國資本開始從美國資產（例如債券，股票和財產）逃離，政府，尤其是白宮，可能會採取措施遏制這項資本飛行。其中之一是對進入美國的外國投資徵稅

He even suggested the possibility of a 2% annual tax on assets held by foreign investors.

他甚至提出可能對外國投資者持有的資產徵收2％的年稅。

According to him, this policy could generate enough revenue to eliminate income tax for most American voters.

據他介紹，這項政策可以產生足夠的收入，以消除大多數美國選民所得稅。

"Trump could eliminate income taxes for the majority of voters," Hayes wrote, highlighting the potential electoral benefits of such a policy.

海耶斯寫道：“特朗普可以消除大多數選民的所得稅，”強調了這種政策的潛在選舉利益。

However, this policy also carries risks. If foreign investors feel disadvantaged by such a tax, they will most likely start unwinding their holdings – which could pressure the U.S. bond market.

但是，該政策也有風險。如果外國投資者感到這種稅收不利，他們很可能會開始放鬆自己的持股，這可能會給美國債券市場施加壓力。

Hayes estimates that if the 10-year bond yield approaches the 5% mark, it could be a tipping point for financial markets.

海耶斯估計，如果10年債券收益率接近5％的成績，則可能是金融市場的轉折點。

Bitcoin: A Gift From "Lord Satoshi"

比特幣：“薩托勳爵”的禮物

In Arthur Hayes's view, Bitcoin is the only real escape from the financial collapse that is slowly unfolding.

在亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）的看來，比特幣是從慢慢發展的財務崩潰中唯一真正的逃脫。

He predicted that as Asian investors begin to pull back their capital, sell American assets and strengthen their respective domestic currencies, this will trigger a spike in volatility in the bond market as well as a weakening of the U.S. dollar.

他預測，隨著亞洲投資者開始退縮資本，出售美國資產並加強其各自的家庭貨幣，這將引發債券市場波動的飆升，並削弱了美元。

The situation will further squeeze the Federal Reserve into a difficult corner. The cycle keeps repeating itself: more volatility, more money printing, and more outflows of foreign capital.

這種情況將進一步將美聯儲擠入一個困難的角落。該週期不斷重複：更多的波動性，更多的錢印刷和更多的外國資本流出。

However, Bitcoin is different. It doesn't rely on a traditional financial system full of licenses and rules. Even in countries like China, where crypto exchanges are banned, peer-to-peer markets are alive and well. Hayes calls it religious:

但是，比特幣是不同的。它不依賴充滿許可和規則的傳統金融體系。即使在禁止加密交流的中國等國家，點對點市場也充滿活力。海耶斯稱其為宗教：

"Lord Satoshi has rewarded Bitcoin to those who are loyal."

“ Satoshi勳爵將比特幣獎勵給那些忠誠的人。”

The data supports this view. If just 10% of the total $33 trillion in foreign portfolio assets currently in the United States were diverted to Bitcoin, the market would experience a historic surge.

數據支持此視圖。如果目前在美國的外國投資組合資產總計33萬億美元的總計中只有10％被轉移到比特幣，那麼市場將會經歷歷史性的激增。

Hayes stated that a Bitcoin price of $1 million is not impossible and could happen "between now and 2028."

海耶斯說，比特幣價格為100萬美元並非不可能，並且可能“從現在到2028年”。

At press time, BTC traded at around $104,162, marking a 0.76% increase over the past 24 hours.

發稿時，BTC的交易價格約為104,162美元，在過去24小時內增長了0.76％。

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