Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes说

尽管海斯认为最终目标是不可否认的，但他警告说，这不会是平稳的旅程。

The path for Bitcoin’s (BTC) journey to $1 million is still open, at least according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. While Hayes believes in the ultimate goal, he warns that the ride won’t be smooth.

至少根据Bitmex的联合创始人Arthur Hayes的说法，比特币（BTC）前往100万美元的旅程的道路仍然开放。尽管海斯相信最终目标，但他警告说，这次旅程不会平稳。

In his latest essay, titled "Fatty Fatty Boom Boom," Hayes describes the pessimistic state of the U.S. economy, comparing it to the nation's expanding waistline: bloated, unhealthy, and in denial. However, he sees Bitcoin as a potential way out.

海耶斯在他的最新文章《脂肪脂肪繁荣》中描述了美国经济的悲观状态，将其与国家不断扩大的腰围进行了比较：肿，不健康和否认。但是，他认为比特币是潜在的出路。

Through his pessimistic lens, Hayes highlighted the Federal Reserve's inability to refrain from "turning on the money printing press." He predicts rising inflation, higher volatility, and repeated government interventions – all of which, he says, are fueling Bitcoin's price rise.

海斯通过悲观的镜头强调了美联储无法避免“打开货币印刷机”。他预测通货膨胀率上升，波动性更高以及一再进行政府干预措施 - 他说，所有这些都在推动比特币的价格上涨。

In an interview, Hayes elaborated on his views, suggesting that Bitcoin could potentially hit the $150,000 mark this year, before altcoins start to follow the upward trend.

海耶斯在接受采访时阐述了他的观点，这表明比特币可能会在今年达到15万美元的分数，然后altcoins开始跟进上升趋势。

"It looks a lot like 2022," Hayes said, referring to a combination of market fear, global uncertainty, and loose central bank policy. He adds:

海斯说：“看起来很像2022年。”他补充说：

"They will go back to printing money. Again."

“他们将回到印刷钱。再次。”

Next Round: Capital Control

下一轮：资本控制

In his essay, Arthur Hayes warns that the U.S.'s next political move will no longer be import tariffs, but a more subtle and hidden strategy: capital controls.

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）在他的文章中警告说，美国的下一个政治举动将不再是进口关税，而是一种更微妙和隐藏的战略：资本控制。

Hayes predicts that as foreign capital begins to flee from U.S. assets – such as bonds, stocks, and property – the government, particularly the White House, may take steps to curb this capital flight. One of them is to tax foreign investments coming into the U.S.

海耶斯预测，随着外国资本开始从美国资产（例如债券，股票和财产）逃离，政府，尤其是白宫，可能会采取措施遏制这项资本飞行。其中之一是对进入美国的外国投资征税

He even suggested the possibility of a 2% annual tax on assets held by foreign investors.

他甚至提出可能对外国投资者持有的资产征收2％的年税。

According to him, this policy could generate enough revenue to eliminate income tax for most American voters.

据他介绍，这项政策可以产生足够的收入，以消除大多数美国选民所得税。

"Trump could eliminate income taxes for the majority of voters," Hayes wrote, highlighting the potential electoral benefits of such a policy.

海耶斯写道：“特朗普可以消除大多数选民的所得税，”强调了这种政策的潜在选举利益。

However, this policy also carries risks. If foreign investors feel disadvantaged by such a tax, they will most likely start unwinding their holdings – which could pressure the U.S. bond market.

但是，该政策也有风险。如果外国投资者感到这种税收不利，他们很可能会开始放松自己的持股，这可能会给美国债券市场施加压力。

Hayes estimates that if the 10-year bond yield approaches the 5% mark, it could be a tipping point for financial markets.

海耶斯估计，如果10年债券收益率接近5％的成绩，则可能是金融市场的转折点。

Bitcoin: A Gift From "Lord Satoshi"

比特币：“萨托勋爵”的礼物

In Arthur Hayes's view, Bitcoin is the only real escape from the financial collapse that is slowly unfolding.

在亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）的看来，比特币是从慢慢发展的财务崩溃中唯一真正的逃脱。

He predicted that as Asian investors begin to pull back their capital, sell American assets and strengthen their respective domestic currencies, this will trigger a spike in volatility in the bond market as well as a weakening of the U.S. dollar.

他预测，随着亚洲投资者开始退缩资本，出售美国资产并加强其各自的家庭货币，这将引发债券市场波动的飙升，并削弱了美元。

The situation will further squeeze the Federal Reserve into a difficult corner. The cycle keeps repeating itself: more volatility, more money printing, and more outflows of foreign capital.

这种情况将进一步将美联储挤入一个困难的角落。该周期不断重复：更多的波动性，更多的钱印刷和更多的外国资本流出。

However, Bitcoin is different. It doesn't rely on a traditional financial system full of licenses and rules. Even in countries like China, where crypto exchanges are banned, peer-to-peer markets are alive and well. Hayes calls it religious:

但是，比特币是不同的。它不依赖充满许可和规则的传统金融体系。即使在禁止加密交流的中国等国家，点对点市场也充满活力。海耶斯称其为宗教：

"Lord Satoshi has rewarded Bitcoin to those who are loyal."

“ Satoshi勋爵将比特币奖励给那些忠诚的人。”

The data supports this view. If just 10% of the total $33 trillion in foreign portfolio assets currently in the United States were diverted to Bitcoin, the market would experience a historic surge.

数据支持此视图。如果目前在美国的外国投资组合资产总计33万亿美元的总计中只有10％被转移到比特币，那么市场将会经历历史性的激增。

Hayes stated that a Bitcoin price of $1 million is not impossible and could happen "between now and 2028."

海耶斯说，比特币价格为100万美元并非不可能，并且可能“从现在到2028年”。

At press time, BTC traded at around $104,162, marking a 0.76% increase over the past 24 hours.

发稿时，BTC的交易价格约为104,162美元，在过去24小时内增长了0.76％。

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