比特幣 (BTC) 月度和季度表現分析：第四季度有何預期？

2024 年前三季度，比特幣表現波動較大，第一季回報強勁，第二季和第三季回報為負。

Bitcoin's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 has been quite volatile, with a strong return in Q1 that was followed by negative returns in Q2 and Q3.

比特幣在 2024 年前三個季度的表現相當不穩定，第一季回報強勁，第二季和第三季回報為負。

In July, the market saw a strong bullish momentum, but in August, it reversed, with a significant price drop. There is a low probability of a positive return in Q3, but a high probability of a positive return in Q4.

7月市場看漲勢頭強勁，但8月出現逆轉，價格大幅下跌。 Q3 出現正收益的機率較低，但 Q4 出現正收益的機率較高。

Bitcoin had an outstanding first quarter this year, with a 68.7% return. By mid-March, it even surpassed $73,000. However, this strong performance didn’t continue into the second quarter, where Bitcoin ended with a -12% return. As we approach the final month of Q3, it’s time to review.

比特幣今年第一季表現出色，回報率為 68.7%。到了3月中旬，它甚至超過73,000美元。然而，這種強勁表現並沒有持續到第二季​​度，比特幣最終回報率為-12%。隨著第三季最後一個月的臨近，是時候進行回顧了。

What does the monthly performance tell about? And, what can we expect for the last and final quarter of the year?

每個月的業績說明了什麼？而且，我們對今年最後一季有何期待？

Bitcoin Monthly Return Analysis

比特幣月報酬分析

In July, Bitcoin achieved a return of 3.09%. The price began at $62,679.31 and ended at $64,639.05. A notable surge occurred from July 8 to July 21, where Bitcoin jumped from $55,864 to $68,157.67. On July 28, buyers made a strong push to reach new highs.

7月份，比特幣實現了3.09%的回報。價格起始價為 62,679.31 美元，結束價為 64,639.05 美元。 7 月 8 日至 7 月 21 日期間，比特幣從 55,864 美元躍升至 68,157.67 美元。 7月28日，買家強勢推動，創出新高。

August was less favorable, with Bitcoin recording a -8.73% return. It started the month at $64,639 but fell significantly due to heavy selling. By August 5, the price had dropped to $53,994.12. Despite some recovery efforts, Bitcoin ended the month at $58,982.

8 月的情況較差，比特幣的回報率為-8.73%。月初價格為 64,639 美元，但由於拋售大量而大幅下跌。到 8 月 5 日，價格已降至 53,994.12 美元。儘管做出了一些復甦努力，比特幣本月仍收在 58,982 美元。

September opened with a strong drop, starting with Bitcoin at $58,982. The current price is $57,057, showing a -3.12% return for the month so far.

9 月開盤，比特幣大幅下跌，開盤價為 58,982 美元。目前價格為 57,057 美元，本月迄今的回報率為-3.12%。

Bitcoin Quarterly Performance Analysis

比特幣季度表現分析

This quarter’s return stands at -8.87%. Last year, Q3 was even worse, with a -11.4% return. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has had a positive Q3 return only four times, whereas there have been at least six negative quarters. The highest Q3 return in the past ten years was 74.1% in 2017, and the lowest was -23.5% in 2019.

本季的回報率為-8.87%。去年第三季的回報率更差，為-11.4%。在過去的十年中，比特幣第三季僅出現四次正回報，而至少有六個季度出現負回報。近十年來Q3回報率最高的是2017年的74.1%，最低的是2019年的-23.5%。

What to Expect for Q4

第四季的預期

The last quarter of the previous year was strong, with Bitcoin gaining 56.6%—the best performance since 2021. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a positive return in Q4 at least six times in the past decade. The highest Q4 return was 226.1% in 2017, and the lowest was -43.1% in 2018.

去年最後一個季度表現強勁，比特幣上漲了 56.6%，這是自 2021 年以來的最佳表現。 2017年Q4回報率最高為226.1%，最低為2018年-43.1%。

Although Q3 may end on a weak note, historical data suggests that Q4 could bring better results. Based on past performance, there’s a good chance Bitcoin will rebound in the last quarter of 2024.

儘管第三季可能會表現疲弱，但歷史數據顯示第四季可能會帶來更好的業績。根據過去的表現，比特幣很有可能在 2024 年最後一個季度反彈。