Bitcoin (BTC) Monthly and Quarterly Performance Analysis: What to Expect in Q4?

Bitcoin's performance was volatile in the first three quarters of 2024, with a strong return in Q1 followed by negative returns in Q2 and Q3.

Bitcoin's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 has been quite volatile, with a strong return in Q1 that was followed by negative returns in Q2 and Q3.

In July, the market saw a strong bullish momentum, but in August, it reversed, with a significant price drop. There is a low probability of a positive return in Q3, but a high probability of a positive return in Q4.

Bitcoin had an outstanding first quarter this year, with a 68.7% return. By mid-March, it even surpassed $73,000. However, this strong performance didn’t continue into the second quarter, where Bitcoin ended with a -12% return. As we approach the final month of Q3, it’s time to review.

What does the monthly performance tell about? And, what can we expect for the last and final quarter of the year?

Bitcoin Monthly Return Analysis

In July, Bitcoin achieved a return of 3.09%. The price began at $62,679.31 and ended at $64,639.05. A notable surge occurred from July 8 to July 21, where Bitcoin jumped from $55,864 to $68,157.67. On July 28, buyers made a strong push to reach new highs.

August was less favorable, with Bitcoin recording a -8.73% return. It started the month at $64,639 but fell significantly due to heavy selling. By August 5, the price had dropped to $53,994.12. Despite some recovery efforts, Bitcoin ended the month at $58,982.

September opened with a strong drop, starting with Bitcoin at $58,982. The current price is $57,057, showing a -3.12% return for the month so far.

Bitcoin Quarterly Performance Analysis

This quarter’s return stands at -8.87%. Last year, Q3 was even worse, with a -11.4% return. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has had a positive Q3 return only four times, whereas there have been at least six negative quarters. The highest Q3 return in the past ten years was 74.1% in 2017, and the lowest was -23.5% in 2019.

What to Expect for Q4

The last quarter of the previous year was strong, with Bitcoin gaining 56.6%—the best performance since 2021. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a positive return in Q4 at least six times in the past decade. The highest Q4 return was 226.1% in 2017, and the lowest was -43.1% in 2018.

Although Q3 may end on a weak note, historical data suggests that Q4 could bring better results. Based on past performance, there’s a good chance Bitcoin will rebound in the last quarter of 2024.