比特币 (BTC) 月度和季度表现分析：第四季度有何预期？

2024 年前三季度，比特币表现波动较大，第一季度回报强劲，第二季度和第三季度回报为负。

Bitcoin's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 has been quite volatile, with a strong return in Q1 that was followed by negative returns in Q2 and Q3.

比特币在 2024 年前三个季度的表现相当不稳定，第一季度回报强劲，第二季度和第三季度回报为负。

In July, the market saw a strong bullish momentum, but in August, it reversed, with a significant price drop. There is a low probability of a positive return in Q3, but a high probability of a positive return in Q4.

7月份市场看涨势头强劲，但8月份出现逆转，价格大幅下跌。 Q3 出现正收益的概率较低，但 Q4 出现正收益的概率较高。

Bitcoin had an outstanding first quarter this year, with a 68.7% return. By mid-March, it even surpassed $73,000. However, this strong performance didn’t continue into the second quarter, where Bitcoin ended with a -12% return. As we approach the final month of Q3, it’s time to review.

比特币今年第一季度表现出色，回报率为 68.7%。到3月中旬，它甚至超过了73,000美元。然而，这种强劲表现并没有持续到第二季度，比特币最终回报率为-12%。随着第三季度最后一个月的临近，是时候进行回顾了。

What does the monthly performance tell about? And, what can we expect for the last and final quarter of the year?

每月的业绩说明了什么？而且，我们对今年最后一个季度有何期待？

Bitcoin Monthly Return Analysis

比特币月回报分析

In July, Bitcoin achieved a return of 3.09%. The price began at $62,679.31 and ended at $64,639.05. A notable surge occurred from July 8 to July 21, where Bitcoin jumped from $55,864 to $68,157.67. On July 28, buyers made a strong push to reach new highs.

7月份，比特币实现了3.09%的回报。价格起始价为 62,679.31 美元，结束价为 64,639.05 美元。 7 月 8 日至 7 月 21 日期间，比特币从 55,864 美元跃升至 68,157.67 美元。 7月28日，买家强势推动，创出新高。

August was less favorable, with Bitcoin recording a -8.73% return. It started the month at $64,639 but fell significantly due to heavy selling. By August 5, the price had dropped to $53,994.12. Despite some recovery efforts, Bitcoin ended the month at $58,982.

8 月份的情况较差，比特币的回报率为-8.73%。月初价格为 64,639 美元，但由于抛售大量而大幅下跌。到 8 月 5 日，价格已降至 53,994.12 美元。尽管做出了一些复苏努力，比特币本月仍收于 58,982 美元。

September opened with a strong drop, starting with Bitcoin at $58,982. The current price is $57,057, showing a -3.12% return for the month so far.

9 月开盘，比特币大幅下跌，开盘价为 58,982 美元。当前价格为 57,057 美元，本月迄今为止的回报率为-3.12%。

Bitcoin Quarterly Performance Analysis

比特币季度表现分析

This quarter’s return stands at -8.87%. Last year, Q3 was even worse, with a -11.4% return. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has had a positive Q3 return only four times, whereas there have been at least six negative quarters. The highest Q3 return in the past ten years was 74.1% in 2017, and the lowest was -23.5% in 2019.

本季度的回报率为-8.87%。去年第三季度的回报率更差，为-11.4%。在过去的十年中，比特币第三季度仅出现四次正回报，而至少有六个季度出现负回报。近十年来Q3回报率最高的是2017年的74.1%，最低的是2019年的-23.5%。

What to Expect for Q4

第四季度的预期

The last quarter of the previous year was strong, with Bitcoin gaining 56.6%—the best performance since 2021. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a positive return in Q4 at least six times in the past decade. The highest Q4 return was 226.1% in 2017, and the lowest was -43.1% in 2018.

去年最后一个季度表现强劲，比特币上涨了 56.6%，这是 2021 年以来的最佳表现。从历史上看，过去十年中，比特币在第四季度至少出现了六次正回报。 2017年Q4回报率最高为226.1%，最低为2018年-43.1%。

Although Q3 may end on a weak note, historical data suggests that Q4 could bring better results. Based on past performance, there’s a good chance Bitcoin will rebound in the last quarter of 2024.

尽管第三季度可能会表现疲软，但历史数据表明第四季度可能会带来更好的业绩。根据过去的表现，比特币很有可能在 2024 年最后一个季度反弹。