比特幣（BTC）將在2028年達到100萬美元，預測Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes

在4月30日在迪拜舉行的Token2049加密貨幣會議上，Crypto Exchange Bitmex的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes對Bitcoin（Crypto：BTC）的未來做出了大膽的預測。

At the Token2049 cryptocurrency conference in Dubai on April 30, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of the crypto exchange BitMEX, made a bold prediction about the future of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

在4月30日在迪拜舉行的Token2049加密貨幣會議上，Crypto Exchange Bitmex的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes對Bitcoin（Crypto：BTC）的未來做出了大膽的預測。

"Don't worry," Hayes said, "Bitcoin is going to $1 million by 2028." He isn't the only big figure in crypto to make similar predictions, give or take a couple of years.

海斯說：“別擔心，到2028年，比特幣將達到100萬美元。”他不是加密貨幣中唯一做出類似預測，給予或花幾年的大人物。

Could Hayes be right? Let's break down the numbers here and assess how realistic it is for Bitcoin to go to $1 million in the next three years or so.

海耶斯可以嗎？讓我們在此處分解數字，並評估比特幣在未來三年左右的時間內達到100萬美元的現實情況。

It's a lot more realistic than it sounds

它比聽起來更現實得多

Right now, Bitcoin is priced at around $96,000. Therefore, it would need to grow by 10.4 times to reach a price of $1 million per coin. For most assets, this would be impossible.

目前，比特幣的價格約為96,000美元。因此，它需要增長10.4倍才能達到每枚硬幣100萬美元的價格。對於大多數資產，這是不可能的。

However, over the last five years, the coin's price rose by 949%. So, there's a recent precedent for it exhibiting the scale of growth that's in the right ballpark for it to hit the price target in question, albeit over a slightly longer period than the roughly three-year timeline we're considering here.

但是，在過去的五年中，硬幣的價格上漲了949％。因此，最近有一個先例展現出正確的增長規模，它在正確的球場上達到了相關的價格目標，儘管比我們在這裡考慮的大約三年時間表的時間更長。

Let's look at this issue from a slightly different angle to better understand whether hitting the target is plausible. Today, Bitcoin's market cap is $1.9 trillion. At a hypothetical $1 million per coin, given the 20.5 million coins that are likely to have been mined by 2028 (up from the 19.8 million that are in circulation today), Bitcoin's market cap would need to be approximately $20.5 trillion.

讓我們從略有不同的角度看這個問題，以更好地了解擊中目標是否合理。如今，比特幣的市值為1.9萬億美元。鑑於2050萬個可能在2028年開采的硬幣（從今天流通的1980萬美元上升），比特幣的市值約為2050萬美元，大約需要約20.5萬億美元。

For reference, as of the end of 2023, around $213 trillion was held in investment assets on the global market. If we assume that over the next few years, 2% of that sum will be allocated to Bitcoin as a result of institutional investors buying it to gain exposure, it would result in around $4.2 trillion in inflows. In isolation, that still obviously wouldn't be enough to drive the coin's market cap up enough for it to reach a level where each coin would be priced at $1 million.

作為參考，截至2023年底，全球市場的投資資產中舉行了約213萬億美元。如果我們假設在接下來的幾年中，由於機構投資者購買了該款項以獲得敞口，這筆款項中有2％將分配給比特幣，這將導致大約4.2萬億美元的流入。孤立的是，這顯然還不足以使硬幣的市值足以提高到足以達到每枚硬幣價格為100萬美元的水平。

However, several factors will constrain the floating supply of Bitcoin available for purchase, which might do the trick of juicing prices up as a result of scarcity. In particular, countries are considering whether to implement Bitcoin repositories which, if implemented, would result in them taking some supply off the market. Likewise, several major corporations are starting to accumulate the asset. They won't sell it unless they desperately need the cash, as long as they think it will be more valuable in the future than it is now.

但是，有幾個因素將限制可購買的比特幣的浮動供應，這可能會因稀缺而造成價格上漲的技巧。特別是，各國正在考慮是否要實施比特幣存儲庫，如果實施，將導致它們從市場上供應。同樣，幾家主要公司開始積累資產。除非他們迫切需要現金，否則他們不會出售它，只要他們認為將來它比現在更有價值。

Furthermore, Bitcoin's next halving will occur in early to mid-2028. Halvings tend to cause some purchasing in advance, driving prices up, and then even more purchasing in the following year as supply dries up. As the Bitcoin supply will only get harder to generate with each successive halving, the trend so far has been for prices to rise to a higher level than before -- permanently.

此外，比特幣的下一個減半將於2028年初發生。在供應乾燥的情況下，中度往往會導致一些提前購買，推動價格上漲，然後在第二年購買更多購買。由於比特幣的供應只會在每個連續的減半下都更難產生，因此到目前為止的趨勢是，價格比以前更高的水平上升到了更高的水平。

There's no need to hold your breath

無需屏住呼吸

In short, under the right set of conditions, there is a good chance that Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin by 2028.

簡而言之，在正確的條件下，到2028年，比特幣很有可能每枚硬幣達到100萬美元。

But there's a much higher chance that it'll reach that same target in the years that follow, as 2028 is relatively soon, and Bitcoin's main price mechanisms work the strongest over longer periods. Given all of the geopolitical instability of the world right now, a lot could happen in the next few years that'd send financial markets, including Bitcoin, into a more rapid up-and-down movement than investors would prefer.

但是，隨後的幾年，它將達到同一目標的機會更高，因為2028年相對較快，比特幣的主要價格機制在更長的時間內發揮了最強的作用。鑑於目前世界上所有的地緣政治不穩定，在接下來的幾年中可能會發生很多事情，而這些市場將使金融市場（包括比特幣）成為比投資者更快的上下移動。

The important thing here is not to get too hung up on the asset's exact price. The coin is a good investment regardless of whether it reaches $1 million in a few years or longer; the market-powered drivers of Bitcoin experiencing higher prices in the future should be your reason for investing, not its price crossing some arbitrary mark.

這裡重要的是不要太掛在資產的確切價格上。不管它在幾年或更長時間內達到100萬美元，硬幣都是一項不錯的投資。將來，比特幣的市場驅動驅動因素應該是您投資的原因，而不是其價格超過任意標記的價格。

If Bitcoin's price is going to continue increasing over the long term—and it probably will given its scarcity and supply dynamics—it's worth buying and holding regardless of whether Hayes' prediction is proven true in the near term.

如果比特幣的價格從長遠來看將繼續上漲（可能會賦予其稀缺和供應動態），那麼無論海耶斯的預測是否在短期內被證明是正確的，都值得購買和持有。