比特币（BTC）将在2028年达到100万美元，预测Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes

在4月30日在迪拜举行的Token2049加密货币会议上，Crypto Exchange Bitmex的联合创始人Arthur Hayes对Bitcoin（Crypto：BTC）的未来做出了大胆的预测。

At the Token2049 cryptocurrency conference in Dubai on April 30, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of the crypto exchange BitMEX, made a bold prediction about the future of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

在4月30日在迪拜举行的Token2049加密货币会议上，Crypto Exchange Bitmex的联合创始人Arthur Hayes对Bitcoin（Crypto：BTC）的未来做出了大胆的预测。

"Don't worry," Hayes said, "Bitcoin is going to $1 million by 2028." He isn't the only big figure in crypto to make similar predictions, give or take a couple of years.

海斯说：“别担心，到2028年，比特币将达到100万美元。”他不是加密货币中唯一做出类似预测，给予或花几年的大人物。

Could Hayes be right? Let's break down the numbers here and assess how realistic it is for Bitcoin to go to $1 million in the next three years or so.

海耶斯可以吗？让我们在此处分解数字，并评估比特币在未来三年左右的时间内达到100万美元的现实情况。

It's a lot more realistic than it sounds

它比听起来更现实得多

Right now, Bitcoin is priced at around $96,000. Therefore, it would need to grow by 10.4 times to reach a price of $1 million per coin. For most assets, this would be impossible.

目前，比特币的价格约为96,000美元。因此，它需要增长10.4倍才能达到每枚硬币100万美元的价格。对于大多数资产，这是不可能的。

However, over the last five years, the coin's price rose by 949%. So, there's a recent precedent for it exhibiting the scale of growth that's in the right ballpark for it to hit the price target in question, albeit over a slightly longer period than the roughly three-year timeline we're considering here.

但是，在过去的五年中，硬币的价格上涨了949％。因此，最近有一个先例展现出正确的增长规模，它在正确的球场上达到了相关的价格目标，尽管比我们在这里考虑的大约三年时间表的时间更长。

Let's look at this issue from a slightly different angle to better understand whether hitting the target is plausible. Today, Bitcoin's market cap is $1.9 trillion. At a hypothetical $1 million per coin, given the 20.5 million coins that are likely to have been mined by 2028 (up from the 19.8 million that are in circulation today), Bitcoin's market cap would need to be approximately $20.5 trillion.

让我们从略有不同的角度看这个问题，以更好地了解击中目标是否合理。如今，比特币的市值为1.9万亿美元。鉴于2050万个可能在2028年开采的硬币（从今天流通的1980万美元上升），比特币的市值约为2050万美元，大约需要约20.5万亿美元。

For reference, as of the end of 2023, around $213 trillion was held in investment assets on the global market. If we assume that over the next few years, 2% of that sum will be allocated to Bitcoin as a result of institutional investors buying it to gain exposure, it would result in around $4.2 trillion in inflows. In isolation, that still obviously wouldn't be enough to drive the coin's market cap up enough for it to reach a level where each coin would be priced at $1 million.

作为参考，截至2023年底，全球市场的投资资产中举行了约213万亿美元。如果我们假设在接下来的几年中，由于机构投资者购买了该款项以获得敞口，这笔款项中有2％将分配给比特币，这将导致大约4.2万亿美元的流入。孤立的是，这显然还不足以使硬币的市值足以提高到足以达到每枚硬币价格为100万美元的水平。

However, several factors will constrain the floating supply of Bitcoin available for purchase, which might do the trick of juicing prices up as a result of scarcity. In particular, countries are considering whether to implement Bitcoin repositories which, if implemented, would result in them taking some supply off the market. Likewise, several major corporations are starting to accumulate the asset. They won't sell it unless they desperately need the cash, as long as they think it will be more valuable in the future than it is now.

但是，有几个因素将限制可购买的比特币的浮动供应，这可能会因稀缺而造成价格上涨的技巧。特别是，各国正在考虑是否要实施比特币存储库，如果实施，将导致它们从市场上供应。同样，几家主要公司开始积累资产。除非他们迫切需要现金，否则他们不会出售它，只要他们认为将来它比现在更有价值。

Furthermore, Bitcoin's next halving will occur in early to mid-2028. Halvings tend to cause some purchasing in advance, driving prices up, and then even more purchasing in the following year as supply dries up. As the Bitcoin supply will only get harder to generate with each successive halving, the trend so far has been for prices to rise to a higher level than before -- permanently.

此外，比特币的下一个减半将于2028年初发生。在供应干燥的情况下，中度往往会导致一些提前购买，推动价格上涨，然后在第二年购买更多购买。由于比特币的供应只会在每个连续的减半下都更难产生，因此到目前为止的趋势是，价格比以前更高的水平上升到了更高的水平。

There's no need to hold your breath

无需屏住呼吸

In short, under the right set of conditions, there is a good chance that Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin by 2028.

简而言之，在正确的条件下，到2028年，比特币很有可能每枚硬币达到100万美元。

But there's a much higher chance that it'll reach that same target in the years that follow, as 2028 is relatively soon, and Bitcoin's main price mechanisms work the strongest over longer periods. Given all of the geopolitical instability of the world right now, a lot could happen in the next few years that'd send financial markets, including Bitcoin, into a more rapid up-and-down movement than investors would prefer.

但是，随后的几年，它将达到同一目标的机会更高，因为2028年相对较快，比特币的主要价格机制在更长的时间内发挥了最强的作用。鉴于目前世界上所有的地缘政治不稳定，在接下来的几年中可能会发生很多事情，而这些市场将使金融市场（包括比特币）成为比投资者更快的上下移动。

The important thing here is not to get too hung up on the asset's exact price. The coin is a good investment regardless of whether it reaches $1 million in a few years or longer; the market-powered drivers of Bitcoin experiencing higher prices in the future should be your reason for investing, not its price crossing some arbitrary mark.

这里重要的是不要太挂在资产的确切价格上。不管它在几年或更长时间内达到100万美元，硬币都是一项不错的投资。将来，比特币的市场驱动驱动因素应该是您投资的原因，而不是其价格超过任意标记的价格。

If Bitcoin's price is going to continue increasing over the long term—and it probably will given its scarcity and supply dynamics—it's worth buying and holding regardless of whether Hayes' prediction is proven true in the near term.

如果比特币的价格从长远来看将继续上涨（可能会赋予其稀缺和供应动态），那么无论海耶斯的预测是否在短期内被证明是正确的，都值得购买和持有。