到2030年，比特幣（BTC）會達到150萬美元嗎？方舟投資創始人凱西·伍德（Cathie Wood）預測它將

方舟投資創始人凱西·伍德（Cathie Wood）最近重申了她的預測，即比特幣（BTC 0.23％）的價格到2030年可能達到150萬美元。

Cathie Wood, the founder of investment firm Ark Invest, is known for her bold predictions, and she recently made another one: Bitcoin's (BTC 0.23%) price could hit $1.5 million by 2030.

投資公司ARK Invest的創始人Cathie Wood以其大膽的預測而聞名，她最近做了另一個：比特幣（BTC 0.23％）的價格到2030年可能達到150萬美元。

The implication of this price target is that the world's favorite cryptocurrency could be poised for a staggering 1,500% surge from its current price of $94,000. But how does Ark arrive at this optimistic estimate, and what are the chances of Bitcoin traders seeing six figures in the next five years?

這個價格目標的含義是，從目前的94,000美元的價格中，世界上最喜歡的加密貨幣可能會帶來驚人的1,500％的增長。但是，方舟如何得出這個樂觀的估計，比特幣交易者在未來五年內看到六位數的機會是什麼？

In its "Big Ideas 2025" report, Ark credits institutional interest, rising demand from emerging markets, and a wider view of the crypto as an effective form of "digital gold" will all combine to propel Bitcoin to new highs.

ARK在其“ Big Ideas 2025”報告中，信譽良好的機構興趣，新興市場的需求不斷增長，並且對加密貨幣作為“數字黃金”的有效形式的更廣泛的看法都將結合起來，將比特幣推向新高。

The firm calculated that $1.5 million target by measuring Bitcoin's institutional penetration rates and its adoption as a safe-haven asset across emerging markets, but that outcome would certainly be a bull case scenario.

該公司計算出150萬美元的目標是通過衡量比特幣的機構滲透率及其在新興市場中採用避風港資產的採用，但是這種結果肯定是公牛案例的情況。

Wood also presented what she described as a base case scenario in which Bitcoin's price would rise to $710,000 and a bear case scenario in which it would still hit $300,000.

伍德還介紹了她所說的基本案例場景，其中比特幣的價格將上漲至710,000美元，而熊案的情況仍將達到30萬美元。

Stretching its forecast model to its most optimistic levels, Ark claims Bitcoin has a shot at hitting $2.4 million by 2030 -- but the firm is sticking to $1.5 million as its official five-year price forecast.

ARK聲稱比特幣將其預測模型擴展到了最樂觀的水平，到2030年，比特幣的槍擊案達到了240萬美元，但由於其正式的五年價格預測，該公司將堅持150萬美元。

Bitcoin trades at about $94,000 at the time of this writing. So, could it surge nearly 1,500% to $1.5 million within the next five years?

在撰寫本文時，比特幣的交易約為94,000美元。那麼，在未來五年內會激增近1,500％至150萬美元嗎？

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

What happened to Bitcoin over the past five years?

在過去五年中，比特幣發生了什麼？

Bitcoin's price rose more than 1,100% over the past five years, even as rising interest rates chilled the cryptocurrency market in 2022 and 2023. Five catalysts drove its price higher.

在過去的五年中，比特幣的價格上漲了1,100％以上，即使利率上昇在2022年和2023年降低了加密貨幣市場。五種催化劑的價格更高。

First, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) cleared Bitcoin's first spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to start trading in January 2024. That drew more institutional investors to put funds into it, and made it easy to invest in it without a crypto wallet.

首先，美國證券交易委員會（SEC）清除了比特幣的首個現貨價格交易所資金（ETFS），以在2024年1月開始交易。這吸引了更多的機構投資者來投入資金，並使得沒有加密錢包的情況下可以輕鬆投資。

Second, in April 2024, Bitcoin went through its most recent halving -- an event built into the underlying code of the crypto that reduces the rewards that miners earn for validating transactions on its blockchain by 50%. These events occur just about every four years, and by making it harder and less lucrative to mine Bitcoin, they reduce the rate at which new coins are introduced, thus supporting its price. Some 19.86 million Bitcoins of the maximum total supply of 21 million Bitcoins have already been mined -- and future halvings will draw out the mining of the remainder until the year 2140. To bulls like Wood, that scarcity makes Bitcoin an asset more comparable to gold and other precious metals than it is to inflationary tokens.

其次，在2024年4月，比特幣經歷了最近的減半 - 該活動內置在加密貨幣的基礎代碼中，可將礦工降低驗證其區塊鏈交易的獎勵降低50％。這些事件大約每四年發生一次，並且通過使比特幣更難和利潤更少，它們降低了引入新硬幣的速度，從而支持其價格。已經開采了2100萬比特幣的最高總供應的約1,986萬比特幣，並且未來的中度將在2140年之前挖掘剩餘的比特幣。對於像木材這樣的公牛，這種稀缺使比特幣成為與富有貨幣代幣相比，比特幣成為黃金和其他珍貴金屬的資產。

Third, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark federal funds interest rate three times in 2024. Lower rates attracted more investors back toward riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Fourth, inflation-wracked countries could adopt Bitcoin as a national currency. A few small countries such as El Salvador and the Central African Republic have tried this strategy, though their attempts ended abruptly. Still, other nations might follow with more successful experiments as Bitcoin's price stabilizes.

第三，美聯儲在2024年削減了三倍的基準聯邦基金利率。降低的利率吸引了更多的投資者回到加密貨幣等風險資產。第四，通貨膨脹的國家可以採用比特幣作為一種國家貨幣。埃爾·薩爾瓦多（El Salvador）和中非共和國等一些小國已經嘗試了這一策略，儘管他們的嘗試突然結束了。儘管如此，隨著比特幣的價格穩定，其他國家可能會進行更成功的實驗。

Lastly, President Trump's pro-Bitcoin policies, including his intent to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and his appointment of cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, generated more tailwinds for the broader cryptocurrency market.

最後，特朗普總統的親幣政策，包括他打算建立戰略性比特幣儲備金的意圖，並任命加密貨幣倡導者保羅·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）為證券交易委員會主席，為更廣泛的加密貨幣市場產生了更多的方面。

But does a $1.5 million price target make sense?

但是，150萬美元的價格目標有意義嗎？

Those catalysts could drive Bitcoin's price higher, but for it to hit $1.5 million would require a lot more institutional buying. Bitcoin Magazine estimates that 10% to 13% of all of the circulating Bitcoins are already held by institutional investors, ETFs, and sovereign funds.

這些催化劑可能會使比特幣的價格更高，但要達到150萬美元的價格將需要更多的機構購買。比特幣雜誌估計，所有循環比特幣的10％至13％已經由機構投資者，ETF和主權基金持有。

That percentage might sound low, but it's slowly catching up to gold. According to the World Gold Council, a trade association for the gold industry, global central banks held 17% of all of the gold ever mined at the end of 2024. The WGC also found that 15% of institutional investors held physical gold in their portfolios in 2022. In that context, one can view Bitcoin's transformation into a form of "digital gold" as already underway -- and its institutional ownership probably won't double or triple within the next five years.

這個百分比聽起來很低，但慢慢地趕上了黃金。 According to the World Gold Council, a trade association for the gold industry, global central banks held 17% of all of the gold ever mined at the end of 2024. The WGC also found that 15% of institutional investors held physical gold in their portfolios in 2022. In that context, one can view Bitcoin's transformation into a form of "digital gold" as already underway -- and its institutional ownership probably won't double or triple within the next five years.

Moreover, Bitcoin remains much more volatile than gold -- and big institutional investors and sovereign funds probably won't significantly increase their positions unless its price

此外，比特幣仍然比黃金更波動 - 大型機構投資者和主權基金可能不會顯著提高其頭寸，除非其價格