由於長期持有者提前拋售，比特幣減半週期面臨延遲

比特幣（BTC）最近經歷了一段艱難的時期，未能達到自上次減半以來的預期歷史新高。該加密貨幣的價格已下跌 10%，目前徘徊在 57,200 美元左右。這標誌著比特幣在減半後實現新高峰的時間最長的延遲，因為強勁的利率和供應問題影響了其價格表現。

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade sideways, showing minimal price movement despite the last halving event. This marks the longest delay in Bitcoin reaching a new peak post-halving, as high-interest rates and supply issues impact its price performance.

比特幣（BTC）繼續橫向交易，儘管發生了上次減半事件，但價格波動很小。這標誌著比特幣在減半後達到新高峰的最長延遲，因為高利率和供應問題影響了其價格表現。

Bitcoin Halving Cycle Shows Longest Delay

比特幣減半週期顯示最長延遲

Usually, Bitcoin tends to experience a surge in price following each halving event, with significant price increases triggered by the reduction in miner rewards. Previous halving cycles have sparked strong bull runs, pushing Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

通常，比特幣在每次減半事件後往往會經歷價格飆升，礦工獎勵的減少會引發價格大幅上漲。先前的減半週期引發了強勁的牛市，將比特幣推至歷史新高。

But this time, things are different, as after the fourth halving, Bitcoin's price has remained relatively steady, mostly trading sideways rather than showing the explosive growth seen in earlier cycles.

但這一次，情況有所不同，在第四次減半之後，比特幣的價格保持相對穩定，大部分是橫盤交易，而不是出現早期週期中出現的爆炸性增長。

This is largely due to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and new market participants, which have shifted market dynamics, leading Bitcoin to hit an all-time high before the halving occurred.

這主要是由於現貨比特幣ETF和新市場參與者的推出，改變了市場動態，導致比特幣在減半發生之前創下歷史新高。

This is the worst possible time to give up on #Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/xMoWcDmyQX

這是放棄 #Bitcoin 的最糟糕的時機… pic.twitter.com/xMoWcDmyQX

However, unlike the usual accumulation periods during halving, long-term holders (LTHs) took profits earlier this year, especially when Bitcoin reached $73K in March. Meanwhile, data reveals that many of these investors have slowed down since, creating a different pattern than in previous halving cycles.

然而，與減半期間通常的累積期不同，長期持有者（LTH）在今年稍早獲利了結，特別是當比特幣在 3 月達到 7.3 萬美元時。同時，數據顯示，自那以後，許多投資人的投資放緩，形成了與先前減半週期不同的模式。

Moreover, significant supply overhangs, such as repayments to Mt.Gox creditors and the German government's sale of seized BTC, have added pressure to the market.

此外，嚴重的供應過剩，例如向 Mt.Gox 債權人的償還以及德國政府出售扣押的 BTC，都給市場帶來了壓力。

Bitcoin Set for a Bull Run?

比特幣即將迎來牛市？

Despite the lull, prominent crypto analyst Crypto Rover believes this stability is only temporary. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin is forming a strong resistance level, which is often a sign of an impending breakout.

儘管市場平靜，但著名的加密貨幣分析師 Crypto Rover 認為這種穩定只是暫時的。他的分析表明，比特幣正在形成強大的阻力位，這通常是即將突破的跡象。

According to Rover's halving chart, the current market conditions indicate that Bitcoin could soon break out of this sideways trend and begin a bull run, potentially reaching between $100K and $120K.

根據 Rover 的減半圖表，當前的市場狀況表明比特幣可能很快就會突破這種橫盤趨勢並開始多頭市場，可能達到 10 萬美元至 12 萬美元之間。

On-Chain Metrics Show Mixed Signals

鏈上指標顯示出混合訊號

Bitcoin has struggled to stay above $60K, but the situation isn't entirely negative. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin's unrealized losses stand at 2.9% of its market capitalization. The combined ratio of Unrealized Profit and Unrealized Loss suggests that profits are 6x larger than losses for most investors.

比特幣一直難以維持在 6 萬美元以上，但情況也不完全是負面的。根據 Glassnode 的數據，比特幣的未實現損失佔其市值的 2.9%。未實現利潤和未實現損失的綜合比率表明，對於大多數投資者來說，利潤是損失的 6 倍。

However, short-term holders (STHs), those who've held coins for less than 155 days, are experiencing the majority of unrealized losses. While these losses aren't at extreme levels yet, further declines could trigger significant sell-offs from this group.

然而，短期持有者（STH），即持有代幣少於 155 天的人，正在經歷大部分未實現的損失。雖然這些損失尚未達到極端水平，但進一步下跌可能會引發該類別的大幅拋售。

Long-Term Outlook: Bearish or Bullish?

長期前景：看跌還是看漲？

As more Bitcoin bought during the all-time high period in March moves into the long-term holders cohort, the market seems to be entering a bear-like phase.

隨著三月歷史最高時期購買的更多比特幣進入長期持有者群體，市場似乎正在進入熊市階段。

While it's unclear if Bitcoin has hit its peak for this cycle or will rally again, many investors are debating whether now is the worst time to quit Bitcoin, or if another surge is just around the corner.

雖然尚不清楚比特幣是否已達到本週期的峰值或是否會再次反彈，但許多投資者正在爭論現在是否是退出比特幣的最糟糕時機，或者是否即將再次飆升。