由于长期持有者提前抛售，比特币减半周期面临延迟

比特币（BTC）最近经历了一段艰难的时期，未能达到自上次减半以来的预期历史新高。该加密货币的价格已下跌 10%，目前徘徊在 57200 美元左右。这标志着比特币在减半后实现新峰值的时间最长的延迟，因为强劲的利率和供应问题影响了其价格表现。

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade sideways, showing minimal price movement despite the last halving event. This marks the longest delay in Bitcoin reaching a new peak post-halving, as high-interest rates and supply issues impact its price performance.

比特币（BTC）继续横向交易，尽管发生了上次减半事件，但价格波动很小。这标志着比特币在减半后达到新峰值的最长延迟，因为高利率和供应问题影响了其价格表现。

Bitcoin Halving Cycle Shows Longest Delay

比特币减半周期显示最长延迟

Usually, Bitcoin tends to experience a surge in price following each halving event, with significant price increases triggered by the reduction in miner rewards. Previous halving cycles have sparked strong bull runs, pushing Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

通常，比特币在每次减半事件后往往会经历价格飙升，矿工奖励的减少会引发价格大幅上涨。之前的减半周期引发了强劲的牛市，将比特币推至历史新高。

But this time, things are different, as after the fourth halving, Bitcoin's price has remained relatively steady, mostly trading sideways rather than showing the explosive growth seen in earlier cycles.

但这一次，情况有所不同，在第四次减半之后，比特币的价格保持相对稳定，大部分是横盘交易，而不是出现早期周期中出现的爆炸性增长。

This is largely due to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and new market participants, which have shifted market dynamics, leading Bitcoin to hit an all-time high before the halving occurred.

这主要是由于现货比特币ETF和新市场参与者的推出，改变了市场动态，导致比特币在减半发生之前创下历史新高。

This is the worst possible time to give up on #Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/xMoWcDmyQX

这是放弃#Bitcoin 的最糟糕的时机…… pic.twitter.com/xMoWcDmyQX

However, unlike the usual accumulation periods during halving, long-term holders (LTHs) took profits earlier this year, especially when Bitcoin reached $73K in March. Meanwhile, data reveals that many of these investors have slowed down since, creating a different pattern than in previous halving cycles.

然而，与减半期间通常的积累期不同，长期持有者（LTH）在今年早些时候获利了结，特别是当比特币在 3 月份达到 7.3 万美元时。与此同时，数据显示，自那以后，许多投资者的投资放缓，形成了与之前减半周期不同的模式。

Moreover, significant supply overhangs, such as repayments to Mt.Gox creditors and the German government's sale of seized BTC, have added pressure to the market.

此外，严重的供应过剩，例如向 Mt.Gox 债权人的偿还以及德国政府出售扣押的 BTC，都给市场带来了压力。

Bitcoin Set for a Bull Run?

比特币即将迎来牛市？

Despite the lull, prominent crypto analyst Crypto Rover believes this stability is only temporary. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin is forming a strong resistance level, which is often a sign of an impending breakout.

尽管市场平静，但著名的加密货币分析师 Crypto Rover 认为这种稳定只是暂时的。他的分析表明，比特币正在形成强大的阻力位，这通常是即将突破的迹象。

According to Rover's halving chart, the current market conditions indicate that Bitcoin could soon break out of this sideways trend and begin a bull run, potentially reaching between $100K and $120K.

根据 Rover 的减半图表，当前的市场状况表明比特币可能很快就会突破这种横盘趋势并开始牛市，可能达到 10 万美元至 12 万美元之间。

On-Chain Metrics Show Mixed Signals

链上指标显示出混合信号

Bitcoin has struggled to stay above $60K, but the situation isn't entirely negative. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin's unrealized losses stand at 2.9% of its market capitalization. The combined ratio of Unrealized Profit and Unrealized Loss suggests that profits are 6x larger than losses for most investors.

比特币一直难以保持在 6 万美元以上，但情况也不完全是负面的。根据 Glassnode 的数据，比特币的未实现损失占其市值的 2.9%。未实现利润和未实现损失的综合比率表明，对于大多数投资者来说，利润是损失的 6 倍。

However, short-term holders (STHs), those who've held coins for less than 155 days, are experiencing the majority of unrealized losses. While these losses aren't at extreme levels yet, further declines could trigger significant sell-offs from this group.

然而，短期持有者（STH），即那些持有代币少于 155 天的人，正在经历大部分未实现的损失。虽然这些损失尚未达到极端水平，但进一步下跌可能会引发该类别的大幅抛售。

Long-Term Outlook: Bearish or Bullish?

长期前景：看跌还是看涨？

As more Bitcoin bought during the all-time high period in March moves into the long-term holders cohort, the market seems to be entering a bear-like phase.

随着三月份历史最高时期购买的更多比特币进入长期持有者群体，市场似乎正在进入熊市阶段。

While it's unclear if Bitcoin has hit its peak for this cycle or will rally again, many investors are debating whether now is the worst time to quit Bitcoin, or if another surge is just around the corner.

虽然尚不清楚比特币是否已达到本周期的峰值或是否会再次反弹，但许多投资者正在争论现在是否是退出比特币的最糟糕时机，或者是否即将再次飙升。