比特幣（BTC）面臨看漲信號和短期不確定性的混合

比特幣（BTC）面臨看漲信號和短期不確定性的混合。穆迪最近對美國信用等級的降級提高了長期看漲

Credit analysis firm Moody’s has downgraded the U.S. credit rating by one notch from Aaa to Aa1, removing the world’s largest economy from the last perfect credit score among major rating agencies.

信用分析公司穆迪（Moody's）已將一條檔次的美國信用評級從AAA降低到AA1，從而將世界上最大的經濟體從主要評級機構的最後一個完美信用評分中刪除。

It’s the first time in over a century that the U.S. lacks a top-tier rating from all three, following downgrades by Standard & Poor’s in 2011 and Fitch earlier in 2023.

這是一個多世紀以來的第一次，在2011年標準普爾（Standard＆Poor）和2023年早些時候的惠譽（Fitch）降級之後，美國缺乏這三個高級評級。

The downgrade comes amid increasing worries over the country’s fiscal health and signals more pain for the U.S. dollar and markets.

降級是由於對該國財政健康的擔憂增加，並且對美元和市場的痛苦產生了更多的痛苦。

Here’s a breakdown of what happened, the market reaction, and why it matters for Bitcoin (BTC) in the long-term bull case.

這是對發生的事情，市場反應的細分以及在長期牛案中對比特幣（BTC）重要的原因。

Moody’s Cuts US Credit Rating As Fiscal Woes Continue

隨著財政困難的繼續，穆迪（Moody）的信用評級

Moody’s has downgraded the U.S. credit rating by one notch from Aaa to Aa1, and also placed the outlook on the rating at ‘stable.’

穆迪（Moody's）將一個檔次的美國信用評級從AAA降低到了AA1，並將“穩定”評級的前景降低了。

It’s the first time in over a century that the U.S. lacks a top-tier rating from all three major credit agencies, after S&P downgraded the country in 2011 and Fitch earlier this year.

這是一個多世紀以來，美國第一次缺乏所有三個主要信貸機構的頂級評級，因為標準普爾在2011年和今年早些時候將該國降級。

The last time the U.S. had a negative outlook on its credit rating was in 2011, when S&P downgraded the country’s rating, which led to the departure of then-Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and sparked a 12% crash in the stock market at the time.

美國上一次對信用評級的看法是在2011年，當時標準普爾降低了該國的評級，這導致了當時的財政部長蒂莫西·蓋斯納（Timothy Geithner）的離開，當時股市發生了12％的崩潰。

The new downgrade comes with an assigned 3-year median probability of default of 0%, which is the lowest in Moody’s assessment matrix. Despite the low probability of default, Moody’s elaborated on the factors that drove the downgrade.

新的降級帶有指定的3年違約率中位數為0％，這是穆迪評估矩陣中最低的。儘管違約的可能性很小，但穆迪詳細闡述了推動降級的因素。

Rising US Deficits, Interest Costs Drive Credit Downgrade

美國赤字增加，利​​息成本推動信用降級

The credit agency cited a "substantial weakening" in the U.S. government's fiscal strength, signaled by the rapid rise in government debt over the past decade and the prospect of further deterioration in the coming years.

信貸機構列舉了美國政府在過去十年中迅速上升的美國政府財政實力的“大幅削弱”，並在未來幾年內進一步惡化。

It also pointed to the absence of any "material progress" on rolling back the long-term tax burden and the shortfall in efforts to broaden the tax base.

它還指出，缺乏任何“重大進展”，這會減輕長期稅收負擔和擴大稅基的努力的短缺。

Moreover, Moody’s noted that the U.S. faces "increasing difficulties in advancing major socioeconomic legislation" despite the majority party’s control of Congress and the White House.

此外，穆迪（Moody）指出，儘管多數黨對國會和白宮的控制權，但美國面臨“越來越多的社會經濟立法上的困難”。

It added that the government’s debt burden is likely to grow over the next 10 years, even in a moderate economic scenario, due to the rapid aging of the population, which will push up spending on Social Security, Medicare, and other entitlement programs.

它補充說，由於人口的迅速衰老，政府的債務負擔可能會在未來10年內增長，即使在適度的經濟情況下，這將推動對社會保障，醫療保險和其他權利計劃的支出。

The agency expects the U.S. government’s debt to stabilize around 80% of GDP over the next two to three years, before eventually increasing again to 90% of GDP by 2035 in a baseline scenario.

該機構預計，在接下來的兩到三年中，美國政府的債務將穩定在GDP的80％左右，然後在2035年在基線情況下最終將GDP穩定在GDP的90％。

It's worth noting that the agency's baseline scenario assumes an extension of the 2024 Trump-era tax cuts, which would deepen the U.S. deficits to 9% of GDP by 2035.

值得注意的是，該機構的基準場景假設延長了2024年特朗普時代的減稅措施，這將使美國的赤字在2035年加深至GDP的9％。

If the tax cuts are extended, it could further strengthen the case for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a hedge against long-term fiscal instability.

如果減稅量增加，它可以進一步加強比特幣和其他加密貨幣的案例，以此作為對長期財政不穩定的對沖。

As the world’s reserve currency comes under more duress due to excessive spending and an accumulation of debt, investors are likely to seek alternative assets to preserve their wealth.

由於全球儲備貨幣由於支出過多和債務積累而受到脅迫，投資者很可能會尋求替代資產來保護其財富。

Bitcoin Is Consolidating As Exchange Supply Fells

比特幣隨著交換供應跌倒而鞏固

After a brief uptick from 1.42 million to 1.43 million between May 2 and May 7, Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges is falling once again.

在5月2日至5月7日之間從142萬次提高到143萬次，比特幣的供應再次下降。

This short increase in exchange balances followed a more significant decline between April 17 and May 2, when the exchange supply dropped from 1.47 million to 1.42 million.

在4月17日至5月2日之間，交換餘額的短暫增加之後，交換供應從147萬下降到142萬。

Now, the metric has resumed its downward trend from 1.43 million on May 7 to 1.41 million today, May 12.

現在，該指標已從5月7日，5月12日（5月12日）恢復了其下降趨勢。

The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is a key market indicator. When more BTC is held on exchanges, it often signals potential selling pressure, which can be bearish.

交易所中比特幣的供應是關鍵市場指標。當更多的BTC在交易所中持有更多的BTC時，它通常會標誌著潛在的銷售壓力，這可能是看跌的。

Conversely, a decline in exchange balances suggests holders are moving their coins to cold storage, reducing near-term sell pressure—a bullish signal.

相反，交換餘額的下降表明，持有人將硬幣轉移到冷藏中，減輕了近期賣出壓力 - 看漲信號。

The current drop in exchange supply from 1.43 million to 1.41 million may indicate that investors are preparing to hold their Bitcoin rather than sell it at the prevailing market rates.

目前的交換供應下降從143萬到141萬，可能表明投資者準備持有其比特幣，而不是以現成的市場利率出售。

This aligns with the broader market trend, as Bitcoin's price has stalled in a short-term consolidation phase after encountering resistance around the $105,000-$106,000 zone.

這與更廣泛的市場趨勢保持一致，因為比特幣的價格在遇到105,000- $ 106,000的區域的阻力後，在短期合併階段停滯不前。

As investors digest recent price action and await fresh catalysts for the next leg of the bull market, there's a potential for more lulls

隨著投資者在下一個牛市的下一個領域的近期價格動作並等待新鮮的催化劑時，有更多的平息可能