比特幣（BTC）現在正面臨重大測試

經過數月的銷售壓力，負面情緒和持續的宏觀不確定性，比特幣正準備測試未知領域。

Bitcoin is now facing a critical test as it consolidates around the $103,000 mark, holding onto gains made during last week’s powerful breakout. After tagging $104,300, the price has remained in a narrow range, suggesting a period of accumulation ahead of the next major move.

現在，比特幣正面臨著重要的測試，因為它可以鞏固約103,000美元的大關，並在上周強大的突破中取得了收益。在標記了104,300美元之後，價格仍在狹窄的範圍內，這表明在下一個重大行動之前積累了一段時間。

With the dust settling on a period of heavy selling pressure, macro conditions are beginning to stabilize, and altcoins are showing signs of heating up once again. This could be setting the stage for Bitcoin to continue its rally from here.

隨著塵埃落定的銷售壓力很大，宏觀條件開始穩定，而山寨幣則顯示出再次加熱的跡象。這可能為比特幣從這裡繼續集會奠定了基礎。

At least one key indicator is also flashing early bullish signals, suggesting that the tide may be turning in favor of the bulls.

至少有一個關鍵指標還閃爍著早期看漲信號，這表明潮流可能會轉向公牛。

Bitcoin May Be Setting Up For Broader Recovery As Key Indicator Flips

比特幣可能正在設置更廣泛的恢復作為關鍵指示器翻轉

Bitcoin is slowly but surely testing the limits of its recovery after months of bearish activity, negative sentiment, and persistent macro uncertainty.

在看跌活動，負面情緒和持續的宏觀不確定性之後，比特幣正在緩慢但肯定地測試其恢復的局限性。

After a strong rally pushed Bitcoin above $100,000, the price is now encountering resistance at the $104,300 level—a key Fibonacci zone that has acted as a major resistance pocket throughout 2024.

在強勁的集會將比特幣推高超過100,000美元之後，價格現在遇到了104,300美元的抵抗力，這是一個關鍵的斐波那契區，在整個2024年都充當了主要阻力袋。

After tagging this zone, the price has remained in a narrow range, suggesting that buyers may be taking a pause at these high levels to allow for some digestion. At the moment, there is a slight preference for the upside, as the market is attempting to build a bullish flag structure.

在標記該區域後，價格仍處於狹窄範圍內，這表明買家可能會在這些高水平上停下來以進行一些消化。目前，由於市場正試圖建立看漲的旗幟結構，因此對上升空間有點偏愛。

If the price breaks above $104,300, then the next key resistance level will be the all-time high zone around $109,000. A break above this area would likely trigger significant momentum and send Bitcoin into price discovery.

如果價格下跌超過$ 104,300，那麼下一個關鍵阻力水平將是歷史最高的高級區域，左右約109,000美元。高於該區域的突破可能會引發巨大的動力，並將比特幣送入價格發現。

However, breaking above this zone could also invite increased profit-taking and fresh sell-side pressure.

但是，超越該區域也可能引起增加的利潤和新鮮賣方壓力。

Chart showing Bitcoin 4-hour chart with 200-period SMA and EMA in gray. Source: TradingView

圖表顯示了比特幣4小時圖表，其中包括200個週期的SMA和EMA為灰色。資料來源：TradingView

Moreover, the rate of change in Bitcoin’s price is slowing down, which could be a sign that the steam is beginning to run out of this rally.

此外，比特幣價格的變化速度正在放緩，這可能表明蒸汽開始耗盡這一集會。

However, there is still plenty of room for Bitcoin to run in the coming months. If the macro picture continues to improve and altcoins start heating up, then this could provide the catalyst for another leg up in Bitcoin.

但是，在接下來的幾個月中，仍然有足夠的空間可以容納比特幣。如果宏觀圖片繼續改善並開始加熱山寨幣，則可以為比特幣中的另一支腿提供催化劑。

Bitcoin is also showing signs of strength in the derivatives market, with traders now placing a stronger premium on calls over puts. This shift in sentiment could be setting the stage for a continuation of the uptrend.

比特幣還顯示出衍生品市場的實力跡象，現在交易員對撥打撥款的溢價更為強大。情緒上的這種轉變可能是為上升趨勢的繼續奠定基礎。

CryptoQuant’s analysis of Bitcoin on-chain activity suggests that the tide may be beginning to turn in favor of the bulls.

加密對比特幣的鍊鍊活動的分析表明，潮汐可能開始轉向公牛。

According to the data, the platform’s Bull Bear Market Cycle indicator has consistently signaled bear market conditions since February 24, 2024. This metric is used to identify the overall market trend by assessing various on-chain signals.

根據數據，自2024年2月24日以來，該平台的牛熊市場週期指標一直在熊市狀況上表示，該指標用於通過評估各種鍊鍊信號來確定整體市場趨勢。

However, in recent days, this indicator has started to flip. Although the current bullish coefficient is still weak at 0.029, it marks the first positive reading since February 24.

但是，最近幾天，該指標開始翻轉。儘管目前的看漲係數仍然弱為0.029，但它標誌著自2月24日以來的第一個正讀數。

More importantly, the Bull-Bear 30DMA, a short-term trend signal, has begun to turn upward. If it crosses above the longer-term 365DMA, historical data suggests that Bitcoin could enter a parabolic rally phase similar to past bull cycles.

更重要的是，短期趨勢信號Bull-Bear 30DMA已經開始向上變動。如果它越過長期365DMA，歷史數據表明，比特幣可以進入類似於過去的牛週期的拋物線彈力集會期。

This confluence of price action and on-chain momentum could be setting the stage for a critical juncture in the Bitcoin market. If the structure holds and indicators align, then Bitcoin may be on the verge of rewriting history once again.

價格行動和鏈上動力的這種匯合可能為比特幣市場的關鍵關鍵所奠定了基礎。如果結構保持和指標對齊，則比特幣可能再次重寫歷史記錄。