比特币（BTC）现在正面临重大测试

经过数月的销售压力，负面情绪和持续的宏观不确定性，比特币正准备测试未知领域。

Bitcoin is now facing a critical test as it consolidates around the $103,000 mark, holding onto gains made during last week’s powerful breakout. After tagging $104,300, the price has remained in a narrow range, suggesting a period of accumulation ahead of the next major move.

现在，比特币正面临着重要的测试，因为它可以巩固约103,000美元的大关，并在上周强大的突破中取得了收益。在标记了104,300美元之后，价格仍在狭窄的范围内，这表明在下一个重大行动之前积累了一段时间。

With the dust settling on a period of heavy selling pressure, macro conditions are beginning to stabilize, and altcoins are showing signs of heating up once again. This could be setting the stage for Bitcoin to continue its rally from here.

随着尘埃落定的销售压力很大，宏观条件开始稳定，而山寨币则显示出再次加热的迹象。这可能为比特币从这里继续集会奠定了基础。

At least one key indicator is also flashing early bullish signals, suggesting that the tide may be turning in favor of the bulls.

至少有一个关键指标还闪烁着早期看涨信号，这表明潮流可能会转向公牛。

Bitcoin May Be Setting Up For Broader Recovery As Key Indicator Flips

比特币可能正在设置更广泛的恢复作为关键指示器翻转

Bitcoin is slowly but surely testing the limits of its recovery after months of bearish activity, negative sentiment, and persistent macro uncertainty.

在看跌活动，负面情绪和持续的宏观不确定性之后，比特币正在缓慢但肯定地测试其恢复的局限性。

After a strong rally pushed Bitcoin above $100,000, the price is now encountering resistance at the $104,300 level—a key Fibonacci zone that has acted as a major resistance pocket throughout 2024.

在强劲的集会将比特币推高超过100,000美元之后，价格现在遇到了104,300美元的抵抗力，这是一个关键的斐波那契区，在整个2024年都充当了主要阻力袋。

After tagging this zone, the price has remained in a narrow range, suggesting that buyers may be taking a pause at these high levels to allow for some digestion. At the moment, there is a slight preference for the upside, as the market is attempting to build a bullish flag structure.

在标记该区域后，价格仍处于狭窄范围内，这表明买家可能会在这些高水平上停下来以进行一些消化。目前，由于市场正试图建立看涨的旗帜结构，因此对上升空间有点偏爱。

If the price breaks above $104,300, then the next key resistance level will be the all-time high zone around $109,000. A break above this area would likely trigger significant momentum and send Bitcoin into price discovery.

如果价格下跌超过$ 104,300，那么下一个关键阻力水平将是历史最高的高级区域，左右约109,000美元。高于该区域的突破可能会引发巨大的动力，并将比特币送入价格发现。

However, breaking above this zone could also invite increased profit-taking and fresh sell-side pressure.

但是，超越该区域也可能引起增加的利润和新鲜卖方压力。

Chart showing Bitcoin 4-hour chart with 200-period SMA and EMA in gray. Source: TradingView

图表显示了比特币4小时图表，其中包括200个周期的SMA和EMA为灰色。资料来源：TradingView

Moreover, the rate of change in Bitcoin’s price is slowing down, which could be a sign that the steam is beginning to run out of this rally.

此外，比特币价格的变化速度正在放缓，这可能表明蒸汽开始耗尽这一集会。

However, there is still plenty of room for Bitcoin to run in the coming months. If the macro picture continues to improve and altcoins start heating up, then this could provide the catalyst for another leg up in Bitcoin.

但是，在接下来的几个月中，仍然有足够的空间可以容纳比特币。如果宏观图片继续改善并开始加热山寨币，则可以为比特币中的另一支腿提供催化剂。

Bitcoin is also showing signs of strength in the derivatives market, with traders now placing a stronger premium on calls over puts. This shift in sentiment could be setting the stage for a continuation of the uptrend.

比特币还显示出衍生品市场的实力迹象，现在交易员对拨打拨款的溢价更为强大。情绪上的这种转变可能是为上升趋势的继续奠定基础。

CryptoQuant’s analysis of Bitcoin on-chain activity suggests that the tide may be beginning to turn in favor of the bulls.

加密对比特币的链链活动的分析表明，潮汐可能开始转向公牛。

According to the data, the platform’s Bull Bear Market Cycle indicator has consistently signaled bear market conditions since February 24, 2024. This metric is used to identify the overall market trend by assessing various on-chain signals.

根据数据，自2024年2月24日以来，该平台的牛熊市场周期指标一直在熊市状况上表示，该指标用于通过评估各种链链信号来确定整体市场趋势。

However, in recent days, this indicator has started to flip. Although the current bullish coefficient is still weak at 0.029, it marks the first positive reading since February 24.

但是，最近几天，该指标开始翻转。尽管目前的看涨系数仍然弱为0.029，但它标志着自2月24日以来的第一个正读数。

More importantly, the Bull-Bear 30DMA, a short-term trend signal, has begun to turn upward. If it crosses above the longer-term 365DMA, historical data suggests that Bitcoin could enter a parabolic rally phase similar to past bull cycles.

更重要的是，短期趋势信号Bull-Bear 30DMA已经开始向上变动。如果它越过长期365DMA，历史数据表明，比特币可以进入类似于过去的牛周期的抛物线弹力集会期。

This confluence of price action and on-chain momentum could be setting the stage for a critical juncture in the Bitcoin market. If the structure holds and indicators align, then Bitcoin may be on the verge of rewriting history once again.

价格行动和链上动力的这种汇合可能为比特币市场的关键关键所奠定了基础。如果结构保持和指标对齐，则比特币可能再次重写历史记录。