到12月到12月，比特幣（BTC）至200,000美元？鏈上指標表明這不是夢想

由於Elonmoney的最新分析，到12月到12月的200,000美元集會的道路吸引了越來越多的關注

The possibility of Bitcoin (BTC) surging to $200,000 by December is being discussed following a recent analysis by ElonMoney, which was highlighted by the research boutique Capriole Investments.

在Elonmoney最近進行了分析之後，正在討論比特幣（BTC）在12月進行200,000美元的可能性。

This analysis combines six on-chain indicators to show how this scenario is not only plausible but also statistically and historically relevant.

該分析結合了六個鍊鍊指標，以表明這種情況不僅是合理的，而且在統計學和歷史上是相關的。

As Capriole Investments notes, ElonMoney's analysis begins with the MVRV Z-Score, which measures how many standard deviations the market value of Bitcoin is above its realized value.

正如Capriole Investments所指出的那樣，Elonmoney的分析始於MVRV Z-SCORE，該評分衡量了比特幣市場價值高於其實現價值的標準偏差。

Currently, this score stands at slightly over 2, which ElonMoney defines as the "neutral zone" and is far from the red overheating threshold.

目前，該分數略高於2，Elonmoney將其定義為“中性區”，並且遠非紅色過熱閾值。

To put this in perspective, cycle peaks have always been reached with values greater than 7, which means the price could still double without breaking historical balances.

從角度來看，始終以大於7的值達到了周期峰，這意味著價格仍然可以翻倍而不會破壞歷史餘額。

This reading, therefore, indicates the absence of an imminent bubble.

因此，該讀物表明沒有迫在眉睫的氣泡。

Another crucial lens of observation is the Energy Value Oscillator, which compares the price of Bitcoin with its theoretical value based on the network's energy consumption.

觀察的另一個關鍵視角是能量價值振盪器，它根據網絡的能源消耗進行比較比特幣的價格與其理論價值進行了比較。

At the moment, this line of "fair value" is positioned close to $130,000, thus above the spot price.

目前，這條“公允價值”線定位接近130,000美元，因此高於現貨價格。

ElonMoney highlights that as long as the oscillator does not show a 100% premium compared to the energy value, talking about a market peak is premature.

Elonmoney強調，只要振盪器與能源價值相比沒有100％的溢價，談論市場峰值就為時過早。

In 2021, when Bitcoin reached its previous high, the premium exceeded 100% by a wide margin, even though the price was below $70,000.

在2021年，當比特幣達到以前的高點時，即使價格低於70,000美元，溢價也超過了100％。

Projecting the model, the fair value could reach $150,000 by October; replicating those historical premiums, the price could fluctuate between $225,000 and $300,000.

預測該模型，公允價值到10月可能達到150,000美元；複製這些歷史保險費，價格可能會在225,000美元至300,000美元之間波動。

The analysis of the derivatives market through the so-called Bitcoin Heater - a composition of indicators such as the perpetual swap funding, calendar spread, and options skew - provides further signals.

通過所謂的比特幣加熱器對衍生品市場的分析 - 一種指標的組成，例如永久交換資金，日曆差和期權偏斜 - 提供了更多信號。

The current reading hovers between 0.6 and 0.7. ElonMoney interprets these values as a market warming, not a boiling. To reach an explosive peak, this index must repeatedly exceed 0.9, a level reached only in conditions of maximum euphoria and extreme leverage.

當前的讀數徘徊在0.6至0.7之間。 Elonmoney將這些價值解釋為市場變暖，而不是沸騰。要達到爆炸峰，該指數必須反复超過0.9，僅在最大欣快感和極端槓桿的條件下達到水平。

The Macro Index Oscillator, which sums over forty different indicators, on-chain and macroeconomic, shows a reading of +0.7. This is a clear expansion, but far from the +3 recorded in 2021 before the bull peak.

宏指數振盪器總計四十多種指標，即鍊和宏觀經濟，顯示+0.7的讀數。這是一個明顯的擴展，但遠非二+3在公牛峰之前記錄的+3。

Various growth signals such as the increase in users, fees, and realized profits confirm a Bitcoin economy that is accelerating, not slowing down.

各種增長信號（例如用戶，費用和實現利潤的增加）證實了比特幣經濟正在加速，而不是放慢速度。

Capriole Investments adds that its own indicator, called Volume Summer, which measures the depth of liquidity in the spot market, also provides useful insight.

Capriole Investments補充說，其自身的指標稱為“體積夏季”，該指標衡量了現貨市場的流動性深度，還提供了有用的見解。

The recent positive value of +75,000 units indicates a return of capital, but the typical "feverish green" of rallies driven by retail is still missing. In comparison, two months before the peak in April 2021, the value was double (+150,000), suggesting a dynamic but not euphoric market.

最近的正值+75,000單位表明資本回報，但零售驅動的典型的集會“狂熱的綠色”仍然缺失。相比之下，在2021年4月高峰之前的兩個月，該價值是兩倍（+150,000），這表明是一個動態的但不是欣快的市場。

The last indicator is financial leverage, calculated through the ratio between total open interest and market capitalization, currently below 3.5%. ElonMoney highlights how this condition is "constructive but not explosive."

最後一個指標是財務槓桿，通過目前低於3.5％的總開放利息和市值之間的比率計算得出。 Elonmoney強調了這種情況是如何“建設性但不是爆炸性的”。

The market can indeed withstand further increases as long as speculators do not perceive a zero risk of decline. Only by exceeding the 5% ratio could the market show signs of danger, but for now leverage is considered a fuel for future growth.

只要投機者不認為零下降風險，市場確實可以承受進一步的增加。只有超過5％的比率，市場才能顯示出危險的跡象，但現在，槓桿被認為是未來增長的燃料。

Finally, ElonMoney arrives at the crucial point: if the MVRV Z-Score exceeds 7, the Energy Value premium reaches or exceeds 100%, the Bitcoin Heater reaches 1, and the open interest exceeds 5%, then the market will enter the distribution zone towards the end of the bull rally.

最後，Elonmoney到達關鍵點：如果MVRV Z分數超過7，能量值溢價達到或超過100％，則比特幣加熱器達到1，而開放率超過5％，則市場將進入公牛集會結束的分配區。

However, without this conjunction of extreme conditions, it is likely that the price discovery will continue in a gradual and sustained manner.

但是，如果沒有極端條件的這種結合，價格發現可能會逐步持續持續。

ElonMoney concludes with a significant statement: "Bitcoin does not die of old age, but of overvaluation, and we are not there at all."

埃隆尼（Elonmoney）以重要的陳述結束：“比特幣不是死於老年，而是高估了，我們根本不在那兒。”

The evidence gathered by ElonMoney and commented on by Capriole suggests a favorable market phase for Bitcoin until the end of the year, with still significant growth margins.

Elonmoney收集並評論Capriole的證據表明，直到年底，比特幣的市場階段都有良好的市場階段，但仍有顯著的增長利潤率。

On-chain and derivatives indicators highlight that the current rally is supported by solid economic foundations and not by uncontrolled euphoria.

鍊和衍生物指標強調，當前的集會得到了堅實的經濟基礎的支持，而不是由不受控制的欣快感所支持。

In this context, investors and observers must primarily monitor the signs of overheating of these six indicators to anticipate any reversals.

在這種情況下，投資者和觀察者必須主要監視這六個指標過熱的跡象，以預測任何反轉。

The presence of increasing, but not excessive, liquidity, combined with contained leverage, creates a scenario in which Bitcoin can benefit from a significant price increase without risking sharp crashes.

存在增加但不是過度，流動性加上槓桿作用的存在，從而產生了一種情況，在這種情況下，比特幣可以從大幅上漲的情況下受益，而不會冒急劇崩潰的風險。

Finally, the most important lesson from this analysis is that the future growth of Bitcoin will be driven by real

最後，此分析中最重要的教訓是，比特幣的未來增長將由真實的驅動