到12月到12月，比特币（BTC）至200,000美元？链上指标表明这不是梦想

由于Elonmoney的最新分析，到12月到12月的200,000美元集会的道路吸引了越来越多的关注

The possibility of Bitcoin (BTC) surging to $200,000 by December is being discussed following a recent analysis by ElonMoney, which was highlighted by the research boutique Capriole Investments.

在Elonmoney最近进行了分析之后，正在讨论比特币（BTC）在12月进行200,000美元的可能性。

This analysis combines six on-chain indicators to show how this scenario is not only plausible but also statistically and historically relevant.

该分析结合了六个链链指标，以表明这种情况不仅是合理的，而且在统计学和历史上是相关的。

As Capriole Investments notes, ElonMoney's analysis begins with the MVRV Z-Score, which measures how many standard deviations the market value of Bitcoin is above its realized value.

正如Capriole Investments所指出的那样，Elonmoney的分析始于MVRV Z-SCORE，该评分衡量了比特币市场价值高于其实现价值的标准偏差。

Currently, this score stands at slightly over 2, which ElonMoney defines as the "neutral zone" and is far from the red overheating threshold.

目前，该分数略高于2，Elonmoney将其定义为“中性区”，并且远非红色过热阈值。

To put this in perspective, cycle peaks have always been reached with values greater than 7, which means the price could still double without breaking historical balances.

从角度来看，始终以大于7的值达到了周期峰，这意味着价格仍然可以翻倍而不会破坏历史余额。

This reading, therefore, indicates the absence of an imminent bubble.

因此，该读物表明没有迫在眉睫的气泡。

Another crucial lens of observation is the Energy Value Oscillator, which compares the price of Bitcoin with its theoretical value based on the network's energy consumption.

观察的另一个关键视角是能量价值振荡器，它根据网络的能源消耗进行比较比特币的价格与其理论价值进行了比较。

At the moment, this line of "fair value" is positioned close to $130,000, thus above the spot price.

目前，这条“公允价值”线定位接近130,000美元，因此高于现货价格。

ElonMoney highlights that as long as the oscillator does not show a 100% premium compared to the energy value, talking about a market peak is premature.

Elonmoney强调，只要振荡器与能源价值相比没有100％的溢价，谈论市场峰值就为时过早。

In 2021, when Bitcoin reached its previous high, the premium exceeded 100% by a wide margin, even though the price was below $70,000.

在2021年，当比特币达到以前的高点时，即使价格低于70,000美元，溢价也超过了100％。

Projecting the model, the fair value could reach $150,000 by October; replicating those historical premiums, the price could fluctuate between $225,000 and $300,000.

预测该模型，公允价值到10月可能达到150,000美元；复制这些历史保险费，价格可能会在225,000美元至300,000美元之间波动。

The analysis of the derivatives market through the so-called Bitcoin Heater - a composition of indicators such as the perpetual swap funding, calendar spread, and options skew - provides further signals.

通过所谓的比特币加热器对衍生品市场的分析 - 一种指标的组成，例如永久交换资金，日历差和期权偏斜 - 提供了更多信号。

The current reading hovers between 0.6 and 0.7. ElonMoney interprets these values as a market warming, not a boiling. To reach an explosive peak, this index must repeatedly exceed 0.9, a level reached only in conditions of maximum euphoria and extreme leverage.

当前的读数徘徊在0.6至0.7之间。 Elonmoney将这些价值解释为市场变暖，而不是沸腾。要达到爆炸峰，该指数必须反复超过0.9，仅在最大欣快感和极端杠杆的条件下达到水平。

The Macro Index Oscillator, which sums over forty different indicators, on-chain and macroeconomic, shows a reading of +0.7. This is a clear expansion, but far from the +3 recorded in 2021 before the bull peak.

宏指数振荡器总计四十多种指标，即链和宏观经济，显示+0.7的读数。这是一个明显的扩展，但远非二+3在公牛峰之前记录的+3。

Various growth signals such as the increase in users, fees, and realized profits confirm a Bitcoin economy that is accelerating, not slowing down.

各种增长信号（例如用户，费用和实现利润的增加）证实了比特币经济正在加速，而不是放慢速度。

Capriole Investments adds that its own indicator, called Volume Summer, which measures the depth of liquidity in the spot market, also provides useful insight.

Capriole Investments补充说，其自身的指标称为“体积夏季”，该指标衡量了现货市场的流动性深度，还提供了有用的见解。

The recent positive value of +75,000 units indicates a return of capital, but the typical "feverish green" of rallies driven by retail is still missing. In comparison, two months before the peak in April 2021, the value was double (+150,000), suggesting a dynamic but not euphoric market.

最近的正值+75,000单位表明资本回报，但零售驱动的典型的集会“狂热的绿色”仍然缺失。相比之下，在2021年4月高峰之前的两个月，该价值是两倍（+150,000），这表明是一个动态的但不是欣快的市场。

The last indicator is financial leverage, calculated through the ratio between total open interest and market capitalization, currently below 3.5%. ElonMoney highlights how this condition is "constructive but not explosive."

最后一个指标是财务杠杆，通过目前低于3.5％的总开放利息和市值之间的比率计算得出。 Elonmoney强调了这种情况是如何“建设性但不是爆炸性的”。

The market can indeed withstand further increases as long as speculators do not perceive a zero risk of decline. Only by exceeding the 5% ratio could the market show signs of danger, but for now leverage is considered a fuel for future growth.

只要投机者不认为零下降风险，市场确实可以承受进一步的增加。只有超过5％的比率，市场才能显示出危险的迹象，但现在，杠杆被认为是未来增长的燃料。

Finally, ElonMoney arrives at the crucial point: if the MVRV Z-Score exceeds 7, the Energy Value premium reaches or exceeds 100%, the Bitcoin Heater reaches 1, and the open interest exceeds 5%, then the market will enter the distribution zone towards the end of the bull rally.

最后，Elonmoney到达关键点：如果MVRV Z分数超过7，能量值溢价达到或超过100％，则比特币加热器达到1，而开放率超过5％，则市场将进入公牛集会结束的分配区。

However, without this conjunction of extreme conditions, it is likely that the price discovery will continue in a gradual and sustained manner.

但是，如果没有极端条件的这种结合，价格发现可能会逐步持续持续。

ElonMoney concludes with a significant statement: "Bitcoin does not die of old age, but of overvaluation, and we are not there at all."

埃隆尼（Elonmoney）以重要的陈述结束：“比特币不是死于老年，而是高估了，我们根本不在那儿。”

The evidence gathered by ElonMoney and commented on by Capriole suggests a favorable market phase for Bitcoin until the end of the year, with still significant growth margins.

Elonmoney收集并评论Capriole的证据表明，直到年底，比特币的市场阶段都有良好的市场阶段，但仍有显着的增长利润率。

On-chain and derivatives indicators highlight that the current rally is supported by solid economic foundations and not by uncontrolled euphoria.

链和衍生物指标强调，当前的集会得到了坚实的经济基础的支持，而不是由不受控制的欣快感所支持。

In this context, investors and observers must primarily monitor the signs of overheating of these six indicators to anticipate any reversals.

在这种情况下，投资者和观察者必须主要监视这六个指标过热的迹象，以预测任何反转。

The presence of increasing, but not excessive, liquidity, combined with contained leverage, creates a scenario in which Bitcoin can benefit from a significant price increase without risking sharp crashes.

存在增加但不是过度，流动性加上杠杆作用的存在，从而产生了一种情况，在这种情况下，比特币可以从大幅上涨的情况下受益，而不会冒急剧崩溃的风险。

Finally, the most important lesson from this analysis is that the future growth of Bitcoin will be driven by real

最后，此分析中最重要的教训是，比特币的未来增长将由真实的驱动