比特幣（BTC）是否會繼續牛市到新歷史的高點？

關於全球貿易陣線積極發展的消息，比特幣（BTC 0.54％）再次恢復了100,000美元的價格水平。

Bitcoin (BTC 0.54%) once again rose above the $100,000 price level on news of positive developments on the global trade front. The euphoria in the crypto market was palpable, and just about every top cryptocurrency moved higher as soon as the first trade deal was announced.

比特幣（BTC 0.54％）再次上漲了全球貿易陣線積極發展的新聞的100,000美元價格水平。加密貨幣市場上的欣快感很明顯，一旦宣布了第一批貿易協議，幾乎所有高級加密貨幣都會提高。

The new thinking is that Bitcoin is about to go on another one of its famous bull market runs, taking it to new all-time highs. But is that really the case?

新的想法是，比特幣即將進行另一個著名的牛市市場，將其帶到了新的歷史最高點。但是真的是這樣嗎？

Macroeconomic outlook

宏觀經濟前景

While the White House's announcement of a new trade deal with the U.K. is certainly reason for optimism, a closer reading of the "deal" reveals that it is really more of an agreement, and that tariffs are not going away.

雖然白宮宣布與英國達成新的貿易協定無疑是樂觀的理由，但對“交易”的仔細閱讀表明，這確實是一項協議，而且關稅不會消失。

Moreover, as skeptics are pointing out, Great Britain accounts for only a small percentage of all U.S. trade, and the U.S. actually has a trade surplus with Great Britain. On the other hand, signing the first trade deal with a key Asian trading partner, with whom the U.S. had a trade deficit, would have been much more bullish.

此外，正如懷疑論者所指出的那樣，英國僅占美國貿易的一小部分，而美國實際上與英國有貿易盈餘。另一方面，與美國遇到貿易赤字的主要亞洲貿易夥伴簽署了第一項貿易協議，本來會更看好。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

It's also been less than 48 hours since Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned of slowing economic growth and higher prices as a result of tariffs. We haven't seen any direct economic effects from the tariffs yet, but the warning signs on the horizon are ominous. If dozens of new trading deals aren't signed within the next 60 days, any gains in Bitcoin could be fleeting.

自聯邦政府主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）警告因關稅而降低經濟增長和更高的價格以來，這也不到48小時。我們還沒有從關稅中看到任何直接的經濟影響，但是地平線上的警告信號是不祥的。如果在接下來的60天內沒有簽署數十項新交易，那麼比特幣的任何收益都可能會轉瞬即逝。

Institutional adoption

機構採用

However, the case for Bitcoin entering a new bull market cycle becomes much stronger when you consider the pace of institutional adoption. The best way to see institutional adoption in action is by looking at investor inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. These inflows turned negative during the peak of tariff uncertainty, but have since turned positive.

但是，當您考慮機構採用的步伐時，比特幣進入新的牛市週期的情況變得更加強大。在行動中看到機構採用的最佳方法是將投資者流入到現貨比特幣ETF中。在關稅不確定性的高峰期間，這些流入變為負面，但此後一直是積極的。

In fact, there's now more money flowing into the spot Bitcoin ETFs than into gold ETFs. That's particularly striking, given that gold has outperformed Bitcoin this year. Gold is also the one safe haven asset that you typically want to be holding during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. So it speaks volumes that investors now appear to be buying more Bitcoin than gold.

實際上，現在流入比特幣ETF的錢比黃金ETF的錢更多。鑑於今年黃金表現優於比特幣，這一點尤其令人驚訝。黃金也是您通常希望在經濟和地緣政治不確定性時期持有的避風港資產。因此，這表明投資者現在似乎購買比黃金更多的比特幣。

You can also measure the pace of institutional adoption by tracking the growing number of corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Leading the way is MicroStrategy (MSTR 0.40%), the company now doing business as Strategy, which continues to load up on Bitcoin. There are also a growing number of "MicroStrategy copycats," which are following the same strategy of buying as much Bitcoin as they can.

您還可以通過跟踪越來越多的公司在資產負債表中添加比特幣的公司來衡量機構採用的步伐。領先的是MicroStrategy（MSTR 0.40％），該公司現在從事業務作為戰略，該戰略繼續在比特幣上加載。也越來越多的“微觀疾病模仿者”遵循相同的購買比特幣的策略。

Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle?

在比特幣週期中，我們在哪裡？

A new infusion of global liquidity, combined with a sea change in investor sentiment, can certainly push Bitcoin higher in the short term. But for how long?

全球流動性的新註入，再加上投資者情緒的海洋變化，在短期內肯定會提高比特幣。但是多長時間？

To answer that question, it's important to know where we are in the Bitcoin cycle. Historically, Bitcoin follows a well-documented four-year cycle, which leads to periods of "boom" and "bust." The four-year cycle is more than just a statistical oddity -- it follows from the fact that Bitcoin has a halving event every four years.

要回答這個問題，重要的是要知道我們在比特幣週期中的位置。從歷史上看，比特幣遵循有據可查的四年周期，這導致了“繁榮”和“胸圍”的時期。四年周期不僅僅是統計上的奇怪性，還可以從每四年的比特幣進行減半活動這一事實。

Based on data from three previous Bitcoin cycles, the halving typically leads to a 12- to 18-month period of bullish activity and outsized market gains. So, as an investor, all you have to do is take the date of the last halving, add on anywhere from 12 to 18 months, and presto! You have a pretty good idea of when the bull market cycle is going to end. The ending of the bull market cycle typically happens with a "blowoff top" -- a massive frenzy of speculative froth and market euphoria, followed by a steep market correction.

根據以前三個比特幣週期的數據，減半通常會導致12至18個月的看漲活動和超大的市場增長。因此，作為一個投資者，您要做的就是將最後一半的日期添加到12到18個月的任何地方，然後加上Presto！您對牛市何時結束的何時結束有一個很好的主意。牛市週期的結束通常以“吹式頂部”發生 - 巨大的投機泡沫和市場欣快感，隨後進行了陡峭的市場校正。

That's what has me worried right now. The last Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, more than 12 months ago. So, if history is any guide, then we are quickly approaching the end of the current Bitcoin cycle. If the period of bullish activity lasts for the full 18 months, there could be a speculative frenzy of Bitcoin buying activity until November.

這就是我現在擔心的。最後的比特幣減半發生在2024年4月，超過12個月前。因此，如果歷史記錄是任何指南，那麼我們正在迅速接近當前比特幣週期的末尾。如果看漲期間的活動持續了整整18個月，那麼直到11月，可能會出現投機性的比特幣購買活動。

This could lead to a repeat of what happened four years ago. In November 2021, Bitcoin hit a then all-time high of $69,000 and seemed to be headed to the moon. It never made it there. The crypto rocket ship never reached escape velocity, and Bitcoin soon collapsed below $16,000.

這可能會導致四年前發生的事情。在2021年11月，比特幣達到了69,000美元的歷史最高點，似乎已經登上月球。它從來沒有在那裡。加密火箭船從未達到逃生速度，比特幣很快倒塌了16,000美元。

Buy Bitcoin for the long haul

長期購買比特幣

Investors need to commit to buying Bitcoin for the long haul. I can't emphasize this enough: If you are only buying Bitcoin for the potential short-term gains, you are doing it all wrong.

從長遠來看，投資者需要承諾購買比特幣。我不能足夠強調這一點：如果您僅購買比特幣的潛在短期收益，那麼您做錯了。

Bitcoin is highly volatile, and so goes through boom-and-bust cycles. It's exciting when Bitcoin is in the "boom" part of

比特幣高度波動，因此經歷了動臂和障礙週期。當比特幣位於“繁榮”部分時，這很令人興奮