比特币（BTC）是否会继续牛市到新历史的高点？

关于全球贸易阵线积极发展的消息，比特币（BTC 0.54％）再次恢复了100,000美元的价格水平。

Bitcoin (BTC 0.54%) once again rose above the $100,000 price level on news of positive developments on the global trade front. The euphoria in the crypto market was palpable, and just about every top cryptocurrency moved higher as soon as the first trade deal was announced.

比特币（BTC 0.54％）再次上涨了全球贸易阵线积极发展的新闻的100,000美元价格水平。加密货币市场上的欣快感很明显，一旦宣布了第一批贸易协议，几乎所有高级加密货币都会提高。

The new thinking is that Bitcoin is about to go on another one of its famous bull market runs, taking it to new all-time highs. But is that really the case?

新的想法是，比特币即将进行另一个著名的牛市市场，将其带到了新的历史最高点。但是真的是这样吗？

Macroeconomic outlook

宏观经济前景

While the White House's announcement of a new trade deal with the U.K. is certainly reason for optimism, a closer reading of the "deal" reveals that it is really more of an agreement, and that tariffs are not going away.

虽然白宫宣布与英国达成新的贸易协定无疑是乐观的理由，但对“交易”的仔细阅读表明，这确实是一项协议，而且关税不会消失。

Moreover, as skeptics are pointing out, Great Britain accounts for only a small percentage of all U.S. trade, and the U.S. actually has a trade surplus with Great Britain. On the other hand, signing the first trade deal with a key Asian trading partner, with whom the U.S. had a trade deficit, would have been much more bullish.

此外，正如怀疑论者所指出的那样，英国仅占美国贸易的一小部分，而美国实际上与英国有贸易盈余。另一方面，与美国遇到贸易赤字的主要亚洲贸易伙伴签署了第一项贸易协议，本来会更看好。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

It's also been less than 48 hours since Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned of slowing economic growth and higher prices as a result of tariffs. We haven't seen any direct economic effects from the tariffs yet, but the warning signs on the horizon are ominous. If dozens of new trading deals aren't signed within the next 60 days, any gains in Bitcoin could be fleeting.

自联邦政府主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）警告因关税而降低经济增长和更高的价格以来，这也不到48小时。我们还没有从关税中看到任何直接的经济影响，但是地平线上的警告信号是不祥的。如果在接下来的60天内没有签署数十项新交易，那么比特币的任何收益都可能会转瞬即逝。

Institutional adoption

机构采用

However, the case for Bitcoin entering a new bull market cycle becomes much stronger when you consider the pace of institutional adoption. The best way to see institutional adoption in action is by looking at investor inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. These inflows turned negative during the peak of tariff uncertainty, but have since turned positive.

但是，当您考虑机构采用的步伐时，比特币进入新的牛市周期的情况变得更加强大。在行动中看到机构采用的最佳方法是将投资者流入到现货比特币ETF中。在关税不确定性的高峰期间，这些流入变为负面，但此后一直是积极的。

In fact, there's now more money flowing into the spot Bitcoin ETFs than into gold ETFs. That's particularly striking, given that gold has outperformed Bitcoin this year. Gold is also the one safe haven asset that you typically want to be holding during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. So it speaks volumes that investors now appear to be buying more Bitcoin than gold.

实际上，现在流入比特币ETF的钱比黄金ETF的钱更多。鉴于今年黄金表现优于比特币，这一点尤其令人惊讶。黄金也是您通常希望在经济和地缘政治不确定性时期持有的避风港资产。因此，这表明投资者现在似乎购买比黄金更多的比特币。

You can also measure the pace of institutional adoption by tracking the growing number of corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Leading the way is MicroStrategy (MSTR 0.40%), the company now doing business as Strategy, which continues to load up on Bitcoin. There are also a growing number of "MicroStrategy copycats," which are following the same strategy of buying as much Bitcoin as they can.

您还可以通过跟踪越来越多的公司在资产负债表中添加比特币的公司来衡量机构采用的步伐。领先的是MicroStrategy（MSTR 0.40％），该公司现在从事业务作为战略，该战略继续在比特币上加载。也越来越多的“微观疾病模仿者”遵循相同的购买比特币的策略。

Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle?

在比特币周期中，我们在哪里？

A new infusion of global liquidity, combined with a sea change in investor sentiment, can certainly push Bitcoin higher in the short term. But for how long?

全球流动性的新注入，再加上投资者情绪的海洋变化，在短期内肯定会提高比特币。但是多长时间？

To answer that question, it's important to know where we are in the Bitcoin cycle. Historically, Bitcoin follows a well-documented four-year cycle, which leads to periods of "boom" and "bust." The four-year cycle is more than just a statistical oddity -- it follows from the fact that Bitcoin has a halving event every four years.

要回答这个问题，重要的是要知道我们在比特币周期中的位置。从历史上看，比特币遵循有据可查的四年周期，这导致了“繁荣”和“胸围”的时期。四年周期不仅仅是统计上的奇怪性，还可以从每四年的比特币进行减半活动这一事实。

Based on data from three previous Bitcoin cycles, the halving typically leads to a 12- to 18-month period of bullish activity and outsized market gains. So, as an investor, all you have to do is take the date of the last halving, add on anywhere from 12 to 18 months, and presto! You have a pretty good idea of when the bull market cycle is going to end. The ending of the bull market cycle typically happens with a "blowoff top" -- a massive frenzy of speculative froth and market euphoria, followed by a steep market correction.

根据以前三个比特币周期的数据，减半通常会导致12至18个月的看涨活动和超大的市场增长。因此，作为一个投资者，您要做的就是将最后一半的日期添加到12到18个月的任何地方，然后加上Presto！您对牛市何时结束的何时结束有一个很好的主意。牛市周期的结束通常以“吹式顶部”发生 - 巨大的投机泡沫和市场欣快感，随后进行了陡峭的市场校正。

That's what has me worried right now. The last Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, more than 12 months ago. So, if history is any guide, then we are quickly approaching the end of the current Bitcoin cycle. If the period of bullish activity lasts for the full 18 months, there could be a speculative frenzy of Bitcoin buying activity until November.

这就是我现在担心的。最后的比特币减半发生在2024年4月，超过12个月前。因此，如果历史记录是任何指南，那么我们正在迅速接近当前比特币周期的末尾。如果看涨期间的活动持续了整整18个月，那么直到11月，可能会出现投机性的比特币购买活动。

This could lead to a repeat of what happened four years ago. In November 2021, Bitcoin hit a then all-time high of $69,000 and seemed to be headed to the moon. It never made it there. The crypto rocket ship never reached escape velocity, and Bitcoin soon collapsed below $16,000.

这可能会导致四年前发生的事情。在2021年11月，比特币达到了69,000美元的历史最高点，似乎已经登上月球。它从来没有在那里。加密火箭船从未达到逃生速度，比特币很快倒塌了16,000美元。

Buy Bitcoin for the long haul

长期购买比特币

Investors need to commit to buying Bitcoin for the long haul. I can't emphasize this enough: If you are only buying Bitcoin for the potential short-term gains, you are doing it all wrong.

从长远来看，投资者需要承诺购买比特币。我不能足够强调这一点：如果您仅购买比特币的潜在短期收益，那么您做错了。

Bitcoin is highly volatile, and so goes through boom-and-bust cycles. It's exciting when Bitcoin is in the "boom" part of

比特币高度波动，因此经历了动臂和障碍周期。当比特币位于“繁荣”部分时，这很令人兴奋