比特幣 (BTC) 回升至 59,000 美元上方，但分析師警告 BTC 9 月可能跌至 45,000 美元

比特幣 (BTC) 在本交易日中回升至 59,000 美元上方，達到 59,764 美元的高點，在過去 24 小時內上漲了近 3%。

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above $59,000 during the ongoing session, registering an increase of almost 3% over the past 24 hours. However, analysts are worried September could see BTC dip to $45,000, putting it on a path culminating at $40,000. 

比特幣 (BTC) 在當前交易時段已回升至 59,000 美元上方，在過去 24 小時內上漲近 3%。然而，分析師擔心 BTC 在 9 月可能會跌至 45,000 美元，最終達到 40,000 美元。

Bitcoin struggled in August, with suggestions that the price could see a further 5% dip. BTC has traded in the red for six of the last seven September months. Other major cryptocurrencies also registered gains, with Ethereum (ETH) climbing back above $2,500. Solana (SOL) moved back above $130 and is currently trading around the $135 mark, while Dogecoin (DOGE) could look to reclaim the $0.100 price level. 

比特幣在 8 月表現不佳，有跡象表明價格可能會進一步下跌 5%。過去 7 個月中，BTC 有 6 個月處於虧損狀態。其他主要加密貨幣也出現上漲，以太幣 (ETH) 回升至 2,500 美元以上。 Solana (SOL) 回到 130 美元上方，目前交易價格在 135 美元附近，而狗狗幣 (DOGE) 可能會尋求重新回到 0.100 美元的價格水平。

Analysts Warn BTC Could See 20% Dip 

分析師警告 BTC 可能下跌 20%

Analysts at Bitfinex have warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could dip by as much as 20% because the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut decision introduces a degree of uncertainty in the market. The prediction was made in a research report published on September 2, with the analysts attributing BTC’s recent 32% surge to speculations surrounding a dovish Fed stance. However, the report also outlined that the anticipated September rate cut could significantly influence BTC’s short-term volatility and long-term trajectory. 

Bitfinex 分析師警告稱，由於聯準會即將降息的決定為市場帶來一定程度的不確定性，比特幣 (BTC) 可能會下跌多達 20%。這項預測是在 9 月 2 日發布的一份研究報告中做出的，分析師將 BTC 最近 32% 的飆升歸因於圍繞聯準會鴿派立場的猜測。不過，該報告也指出，預期 9 月的降息可能會嚴重影響 BTC 的短期波動和長期軌跡。

“A 25 basis point cut is likely to signal the beginning of a typical easing cycle, which could lead to long-term price appreciation for Bitcoin as liquidity increases and recession fears ease.”

「降息 25 個基點可能標誌著典型寬鬆週期的開始，隨著流動性增加和衰退擔憂緩解，這可能導致比特幣價格長期升值。”

In the event of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, BTC could see an immediate jump in price followed by a correction as concerns around a recession escalate. Market dynamics have shifted over the past week, with spot holders de-risking and perpetual market speculators attempting to buy the dip, which is seen in significant long open interest in BTC perpetuals. 

如果更大幅度地降息 50 個基點，隨著對經濟衰退的擔憂升級，比特幣的價格可能會立即上漲，然後出現回檔。過去一周，市場動態發生了變化，現貨持有者開始降低風險，永續市場投機者試圖逢低買入，這可以從比特幣永續合約的大量多頭未平倉合約中看出。

Meanwhile, global crypto investment products have registered $305 million in weekly outflows, according to data from CoinShares. The net outflows of last week are in stark contrast with the net inflows worth $543 million seen a week prior. CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill stated, 

同時，根據 CoinShares 的數據，全球加密貨幣投資產品每週流出 3.05 億美元。上週的淨流出與一週前 5.43 億美元的淨流入形成鮮明對比。 CoinShares 研究主管 James Butterfill 表示，

“The outflows came amid “widespread negative sentiment evident across various providers and regions, driven by stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S., which “diminished the likelihood of a 50-basis point interest rate cut. We continue to expect the asset class to become increasingly sensitive to interest rate expectations as the Fed gets closer to a pivot.”

「在美國強於預期的經濟數據推動下，各提供者和地區普遍存在明顯的負面情緒，導致資金外流，這」降低了降息 50 個基點的可能性。我們仍然預計，隨著美聯儲接近轉向，該資產類別將對利率預期變得越來越敏感。

A Turbulent Month Ahead 

未來動盪的一個月

Analysts predict that BTC could see a substantial decline following a rate cut, with a potential bottom between $40,000 and $50,000. The forecast is based on historical data showing that percentage return peaks typically dip by 60-70% each cycle, along with a reduction in average bull market corrections. September has historically been a difficult month for BTC, with an average return of -4.78% and peak-to-trough declines of around 24.6%. According to analysts, this volatility and the risk of a “sell-the-news” reaction following the rate cut could present traders with opportunities and risks.

分析師預測，降息後，BTC 可能會大幅下跌，底部可能在 40,000 美元至 50,000 美元之間。該預測基於歷史數據，顯示每個週期回報率高峰通常會下降 60-70%，同時多頭調整平均也會減少。歷史上，9 月對 BTC 來說是艱難的一個月，平均回報率為-4.78%，峰谷跌幅約 24.6%。分析師表示，這種波動性以及降息後出現「拋售消息」反應的風險可能會給交易者帶來機會和風險。

BTC Exchange Reserves Hit Multi-Year Low

比特幣交易所儲備跌至多年低點

BTC reserves on exchanges have hit a multi-year low, with crypto exchanges now holding just 2.39 million BTC, significantly lower than the 2020 peak. BTC’s current price sits just under the $59,000 mark, down over 6% in the past week as ETFs see continuous outflows. According to Kristian Haralampiev, Structured Products Lead at Nexo, the drop in BTC prices can be attributed to anxiety surrounding the upcoming release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data and its potential impact on the Fed’s monetary policy. 

交易所的 BTC 儲備已創下多年低點，加密貨幣交易所目前僅持有 239 萬 BTC，遠低於 2020 年的高峰。 BTC 目前價格略低於 59,000 美元大關，過去一周下跌超過 6%，因為 ETF 持續流出。 Nexo 結構性產品主管 Kristian Haralampiev 表示，比特幣價格下跌可歸因於對即將發布的美國非農就業數據及其對聯準會貨幣政策的潛在影響的擔憂。

“With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting looming, investors are bracing for new economic data that could significantly influence the Fed’s decisions.”

“隨著聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議的臨近，投資者正在等待可能對聯準會決策產生重大影響的新經濟數據。”

Some analysts believe BTC is in a consolidation phase and could repeat a bull run and hit a new all-time high. 

一些分析師認為，比特幣正處於盤整階段，可能重複多頭市場並創下歷史新高。

“Bitcoin – Bull run 2.0 Incoming. The current monthly consolidation on BTC looks a lot like the previous cycle when the price surged all the way to its all-time high.”

「比特幣—牛市2.0即將到來。比特幣目前的月度盤整看起來很像上一個週期，當時價格一路飆升至歷史新高。

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis

比特幣（BTC）價格分析

Bitcoin (BTC) is clearly in a bearish trend since hitting a peak of over $66,000 on July 29, consistently making lower highs and lower lows, indicating considerable market weakness. While BTC did reach a high of $65,000 on August 23, it has since dipped below $60,000 and the 20, 50, and 200-day SM

自 7 月 29 日觸及超過 66,000 美元的峰值以來，比特幣 (BTC) 顯然處於看跌趨勢，不斷創出更低的高點和更低的低點，表明市場相當疲軟。雖然 BTC 確實在 8 月 23 日達到了 65,000 美元的高點，但此後已跌破 60,000 美元以及 20、50 和 200 天 SM