比特币 (BTC) 回升至 59,000 美元上方，但分析师警告 BTC 9 月可能跌至 45,000 美元

比特币 (BTC) 在本交易日中回升至 59,000 美元上方，达到 59,764 美元的高点，在过去 24 小时内上涨了近 3%。

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above $59,000 during the ongoing session, registering an increase of almost 3% over the past 24 hours. However, analysts are worried September could see BTC dip to $45,000, putting it on a path culminating at $40,000. 

比特币 (BTC) 在当前交易时段已回升至 59,000 美元上方，在过去 24 小时内上涨了近 3%。然而，分析师担心 9 月份 BTC 可能会跌至 45,000 美元，最终达到 40,000 美元。

Bitcoin struggled in August, with suggestions that the price could see a further 5% dip. BTC has traded in the red for six of the last seven September months. Other major cryptocurrencies also registered gains, with Ethereum (ETH) climbing back above $2,500. Solana (SOL) moved back above $130 and is currently trading around the $135 mark, while Dogecoin (DOGE) could look to reclaim the $0.100 price level. 

比特币在 8 月份表现不佳，有迹象表明价格可能会进一步下跌 5%。过去 7 个月中，BTC 有 6 个月处于亏损状态。其他主要加密货币也出现上涨，以太坊 (ETH) 回升至 2,500 美元以上。 Solana (SOL) 回到 130 美元上方，目前交易价格在 135 美元附近，而狗狗币 (DOGE) 可能会寻求重新回到 0.100 美元的价格水平。

Analysts Warn BTC Could See 20% Dip 

分析师警告 BTC 可能下跌 20%

Analysts at Bitfinex have warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could dip by as much as 20% because the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut decision introduces a degree of uncertainty in the market. The prediction was made in a research report published on September 2, with the analysts attributing BTC’s recent 32% surge to speculations surrounding a dovish Fed stance. However, the report also outlined that the anticipated September rate cut could significantly influence BTC’s short-term volatility and long-term trajectory. 

Bitfinex 分析师警告称，由于美联储即将降息的决定给市场带来一定程度的不确定性，比特币 (BTC) 可能会下跌多达 20%。这一预测是在 9 月 2 日发布的一份研究报告中做出的，分析师将 BTC 最近 32% 的飙升归因于围绕美联储鸽派立场的猜测。不过，该报告还指出，预期的 9 月份降息可能会严重影响 BTC 的短期波动和长期轨迹。

“A 25 basis point cut is likely to signal the beginning of a typical easing cycle, which could lead to long-term price appreciation for Bitcoin as liquidity increases and recession fears ease.”

“降息 25 个基点可能标志着典型宽松周期的开始，随着流动性增加和衰退担忧缓解，这可能导致比特币价格长期升值。”

In the event of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, BTC could see an immediate jump in price followed by a correction as concerns around a recession escalate. Market dynamics have shifted over the past week, with spot holders de-risking and perpetual market speculators attempting to buy the dip, which is seen in significant long open interest in BTC perpetuals. 

如果更大幅度地降息 50 个基点，随着对经济衰退的担忧升级，比特币的价格可能会立即上涨，然后出现回调。过去一周，市场动态发生了变化，现货持有者开始降低风险，永续市场投机者试图逢低买入，这可以从比特币永续合约的大量多头未平仓合约中看出。

Meanwhile, global crypto investment products have registered $305 million in weekly outflows, according to data from CoinShares. The net outflows of last week are in stark contrast with the net inflows worth $543 million seen a week prior. CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill stated, 

与此同时，根据 CoinShares 的数据，全球加密货币投资产品每周流出 3.05 亿美元。上周的净流出与一周前 5.43 亿美元的净流入形成鲜明对比。 CoinShares 研究主管 James Butterfill 表示，

“The outflows came amid “widespread negative sentiment evident across various providers and regions, driven by stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S., which “diminished the likelihood of a 50-basis point interest rate cut. We continue to expect the asset class to become increasingly sensitive to interest rate expectations as the Fed gets closer to a pivot.”

“在美国强于预期的经济数据推动下，各提供商和地区普遍存在明显的负面情绪，导致资金外流，这”降低了降息 50 个基点的可能性。我们仍然预计，随着美联储接近转向，该资产类别将对利率预期变得越来越敏感。”

A Turbulent Month Ahead 

未来动荡的一个月

Analysts predict that BTC could see a substantial decline following a rate cut, with a potential bottom between $40,000 and $50,000. The forecast is based on historical data showing that percentage return peaks typically dip by 60-70% each cycle, along with a reduction in average bull market corrections. September has historically been a difficult month for BTC, with an average return of -4.78% and peak-to-trough declines of around 24.6%. According to analysts, this volatility and the risk of a “sell-the-news” reaction following the rate cut could present traders with opportunities and risks.

分析师预测，降息后，BTC 可能会大幅下跌，底部可能在 40,000 美元至 50,000 美元之间。该预测基于历史数据，显示每个周期回报率峰值通常会下降 60-70%，同时牛市调整平均也会减少。历史上，9 月对 BTC 来说是艰难的一个月，平均回报率为-4.78%，峰谷跌幅约为 24.6%。分析师表示，这种波动性以及降息后出现“抛售消息”反应的风险可能给交易者带来机遇和风险。

BTC Exchange Reserves Hit Multi-Year Low

比特币交易所储备跌至多年低点

BTC reserves on exchanges have hit a multi-year low, with crypto exchanges now holding just 2.39 million BTC, significantly lower than the 2020 peak. BTC’s current price sits just under the $59,000 mark, down over 6% in the past week as ETFs see continuous outflows. According to Kristian Haralampiev, Structured Products Lead at Nexo, the drop in BTC prices can be attributed to anxiety surrounding the upcoming release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data and its potential impact on the Fed’s monetary policy. 

交易所的 BTC 储备已创多年低点，加密货币交易所目前仅持有 239 万 BTC，远低于 2020 年的峰值。由于 ETF 持续流出，比特币当前价格略低于 59,000 美元大关，过去一周下跌超过 6%。 Nexo 结构性产品主管 Kristian Haralampiev 表示，比特币价格下跌可归因于对即将发布的美国非农就业数据及其对美联储货币政策的潜在影响的担忧。

“With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting looming, investors are bracing for new economic data that could significantly influence the Fed’s decisions.”

“随着联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议的临近，投资者正在等待可能对美联储决策产生重大影响的新经济数据。”

Some analysts believe BTC is in a consolidation phase and could repeat a bull run and hit a new all-time high. 

一些分析师认为，比特币正处于盘整阶段，可能会重复牛市并创下历史新高。

“Bitcoin – Bull run 2.0 Incoming. The current monthly consolidation on BTC looks a lot like the previous cycle when the price surged all the way to its all-time high.”

“比特币——牛市2.0即将到来。比特币目前的月度盘整看起来很像上一个周期，当时价格一路飙升至历史新高。”

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis

比特币（BTC）价格分析

Bitcoin (BTC) is clearly in a bearish trend since hitting a peak of over $66,000 on July 29, consistently making lower highs and lower lows, indicating considerable market weakness. While BTC did reach a high of $65,000 on August 23, it has since dipped below $60,000 and the 20, 50, and 200-day SM

自 7 月 29 日触及超过 66,000 美元的峰值以来，比特币 (BTC) 显然处于看跌趋势，不断创出更低的高点和更低的低点，表明市场相当疲软。虽然 BTC 确实在 8 月 23 日达到了 65,000 美元的高点，但此后已跌破 60,000 美元以及 20、50 和 200 天 SM