Bitcoin (BTC) Climbs Back above $59,000, But Analysts Warn September Could See BTC Dip to $45,000

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above $59,000 during the ongoing session, reaching a high of $59,764 and registering an increase of almost 3% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above $59,000 during the ongoing session, registering an increase of almost 3% over the past 24 hours. However, analysts are worried September could see BTC dip to $45,000, putting it on a path culminating at $40,000. 

Bitcoin struggled in August, with suggestions that the price could see a further 5% dip. BTC has traded in the red for six of the last seven September months. Other major cryptocurrencies also registered gains, with Ethereum (ETH) climbing back above $2,500. Solana (SOL) moved back above $130 and is currently trading around the $135 mark, while Dogecoin (DOGE) could look to reclaim the $0.100 price level. 

Analysts Warn BTC Could See 20% Dip 

Analysts at Bitfinex have warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could dip by as much as 20% because the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut decision introduces a degree of uncertainty in the market. The prediction was made in a research report published on September 2, with the analysts attributing BTC’s recent 32% surge to speculations surrounding a dovish Fed stance. However, the report also outlined that the anticipated September rate cut could significantly influence BTC’s short-term volatility and long-term trajectory. 

“A 25 basis point cut is likely to signal the beginning of a typical easing cycle, which could lead to long-term price appreciation for Bitcoin as liquidity increases and recession fears ease.”

In the event of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, BTC could see an immediate jump in price followed by a correction as concerns around a recession escalate. Market dynamics have shifted over the past week, with spot holders de-risking and perpetual market speculators attempting to buy the dip, which is seen in significant long open interest in BTC perpetuals. 

Meanwhile, global crypto investment products have registered $305 million in weekly outflows, according to data from CoinShares. The net outflows of last week are in stark contrast with the net inflows worth $543 million seen a week prior. CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill stated, 

“The outflows came amid “widespread negative sentiment evident across various providers and regions, driven by stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S., which “diminished the likelihood of a 50-basis point interest rate cut. We continue to expect the asset class to become increasingly sensitive to interest rate expectations as the Fed gets closer to a pivot.”

A Turbulent Month Ahead 

Analysts predict that BTC could see a substantial decline following a rate cut, with a potential bottom between $40,000 and $50,000. The forecast is based on historical data showing that percentage return peaks typically dip by 60-70% each cycle, along with a reduction in average bull market corrections. September has historically been a difficult month for BTC, with an average return of -4.78% and peak-to-trough declines of around 24.6%. According to analysts, this volatility and the risk of a “sell-the-news” reaction following the rate cut could present traders with opportunities and risks.

BTC Exchange Reserves Hit Multi-Year Low

BTC reserves on exchanges have hit a multi-year low, with crypto exchanges now holding just 2.39 million BTC, significantly lower than the 2020 peak. BTC’s current price sits just under the $59,000 mark, down over 6% in the past week as ETFs see continuous outflows. According to Kristian Haralampiev, Structured Products Lead at Nexo, the drop in BTC prices can be attributed to anxiety surrounding the upcoming release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data and its potential impact on the Fed’s monetary policy. 

“With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting looming, investors are bracing for new economic data that could significantly influence the Fed’s decisions.”

Some analysts believe BTC is in a consolidation phase and could repeat a bull run and hit a new all-time high. 

“Bitcoin – Bull run 2.0 Incoming. The current monthly consolidation on BTC looks a lot like the previous cycle when the price surged all the way to its all-time high.”

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is clearly in a bearish trend since hitting a peak of over $66,000 on July 29, consistently making lower highs and lower lows, indicating considerable market weakness. While BTC did reach a high of $65,000 on August 23, it has since dipped below $60,000 and the 20, 50, and 200-day SM