比特幣將打破九月的魔咒？這裡有五個跡象

比特幣是市值最大的加密貨幣，截至 8 月份，比特幣下跌 8.73%，符合過去趨勢的預期。

Bitcoin price ended August in the red, down 8.73%, as expected based on past trends. In a recent tweet, Ali Martinez noted that while Bitcoin played out its historical narrative for August, similar expectations exist for September, which is typically believed to be a negative month for Bitcoin.

比特幣價格 8 月收盤下跌，下跌 8.73%，符合過去趨勢的預期。阿里·馬丁內斯(Ali Martinez) 在最近的一條推文中指出，雖然比特幣在8 月上演了其歷史敘述，但對9 月也存在類似的預期，通常認為9 月對比特幣來說是負面的月份。

However, recent insights from Spot On Chain, shared in a thread of tweets, suggest five reasons why this year might be different.

然而，Spot On Chain 最近在推文中分享的見解提出了今年可能有所不同的五個原因。

First, negative Augusts may help to avoid a negative September. In other reasons cited, major selling pressures have cleared and long-term holders remain strong. Fourth, Bitcoin ETFs can be a renewed buying force and lastly, favorable interest rates, capital and regulations might help to boost the market in September.

首先，八月的負面影響可能有助於避免九月的負面影響。出於其他原因，主要拋售壓力已消除，長期持有者依然強勁。第四，比特幣 ETF 可以成為新的購買力，最後，有利的利率、資本和監管可能有助於提振 9 月的市場。

Bitcoin to break September's jinx? Here are five indications

比特幣將打破九月的魔咒？這裡有五個跡象

Second, selling pressure has substantially declined for Bitcoin. Three major selling forces unloaded 170,917 BTC or $10.69 billion to the market in July and August, including the German government, which sold 49,859 BTC worth $3 billion in early July and no longer holds BTC. Mt Gox repaid 95,958 BTC in July and August and still holds 44,898 BTC worth $2.65 billion, or only a third of the initial holding. GenesisTrading distributed 24,068 BTC for repayment on Aug. 2 and no longer holds BTC.

其次，比特幣的拋售壓力大幅下降。三大拋售力量在 7 月和 8 月向市場拋售了 170,917 BTC，即 106.9 億美元，其中包括德國政府，該政府在 7 月初出售了 49,859 BTC，價值 30 億美元，並不再持有 BTC。 Mt Gox 在 7 月和 8 月償還了 95,958 BTC，但仍持有 44,898 BTC，價值 26.5 億美元，僅為初始持有量的三分之一。 GenesisTrading 於 8 月 2 日分配了 24,068 BTC 進行償還，不再持有 BTC。

However, the U.S. government still holds 203,650 confiscated BTC worth $12 billion, and like in the German government case, this can be a big selling force. Nevertheless, recent actions suggest limited near-term sell-off risk.

然而，美國政府仍然持有 203,650 個被沒收的比特幣，價值 120 億美元，就像德國政府的案例一樣，這可能是一股巨大的拋售力量。儘管如此，最近的走勢顯示近期拋售風險有限。

In 2023 and 2024, the U.S. government moved 35,516 BTC worth $1.48 billion to Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) at nearly $41,637, but overall there were only weak price reactions because most sales were done via OTC with minimal impact on the market.

2023 年和2024 年，美國政府以近41,637 美元的價格將價值14.8 億美元的35,516 枚BTC 轉移到Coinbase（納斯達克股票代碼：COIN），但總體而言價格反應疲軟，因為大多數銷售都是透過場外交易進行的，對市場影響最小。

Long-term holders, which increased their supply by 262,000 BTC in August, bringing their total holding to 14.82 million BTC, or 75% of the total supply, remain another positive factor.

長期持有者在 8 月增加了 262,000 BTC 的供應量，使其總持有量達到 1,482 萬枚 BTC，佔總供應量的 75%，這仍然是另一個積極因素。

Similarly, BTC ETFs can be a renewed buying force, if the pattern of alternating between positive and negative months continues.

同樣，如果積極月份和消極月份交替的模式持續下去，BTC ETF 可能會成為新的購買力。

Other potential buying simulators include the likelihood of the FED cutting the interest rate in September, which could boost demand for risky assets like BTC or Bitcoin ETFs. FTX will repay $16 billion to creditors in cash, not crypto, which can be reinjected into BTC and the broad market.

其他潛在的購買模擬器包括聯準會在 9 月降息的可能性，這可能會增加對 BTC 或比特幣 ETF 等風險資產的需求。 FTX 將以現金而非加密貨幣的形式向債權人償還 160 億美元，這些現金可以重新註入 BTC 和廣闊的市場。

This article was originally published on U.Today

本文原刊於 U.Today