比特币将打破九月的魔咒？这里有五个迹象

比特币是市值最大的加密货币，截至 8 月份，比特币下跌 8.73%，符合过去趋势的预期。

Bitcoin price ended August in the red, down 8.73%, as expected based on past trends. In a recent tweet, Ali Martinez noted that while Bitcoin played out its historical narrative for August, similar expectations exist for September, which is typically believed to be a negative month for Bitcoin.

比特币价格 8 月份收盘下跌，下跌 8.73%，符合过去趋势的预期。阿里·马丁内斯 (Ali Martinez) 在最近的一条推文中指出，虽然比特币在 8 月份上演了其历史叙述，但对 9 月份也存在类似的预期，通常认为 9 月份对比特币来说是负面的月份。

However, recent insights from Spot On Chain, shared in a thread of tweets, suggest five reasons why this year might be different.

然而，Spot On Chain 最近在推文中分享的见解提出了今年可能有所不同的五个原因。

First, negative Augusts may help to avoid a negative September. In other reasons cited, major selling pressures have cleared and long-term holders remain strong. Fourth, Bitcoin ETFs can be a renewed buying force and lastly, favorable interest rates, capital and regulations might help to boost the market in September.

首先，八月的负面影响可能有助于避免九月的负面影响。出于其他原因，主要抛售压力已经消除，长期持有者依然强劲。第四，比特币 ETF 可以成为新的购买力，最后，有利的利率、资本和监管可能有助于提振 9 月份的市场。

Bitcoin to break September's jinx? Here are five indications

比特币将打破九月的魔咒？这里有五个迹象

Second, selling pressure has substantially declined for Bitcoin. Three major selling forces unloaded 170,917 BTC or $10.69 billion to the market in July and August, including the German government, which sold 49,859 BTC worth $3 billion in early July and no longer holds BTC. Mt Gox repaid 95,958 BTC in July and August and still holds 44,898 BTC worth $2.65 billion, or only a third of the initial holding. GenesisTrading distributed 24,068 BTC for repayment on Aug. 2 and no longer holds BTC.

其次，比特币的抛售压力大幅下降。三大抛售力量在 7 月和 8 月向市场抛售了 170,917 BTC，即 106.9 亿美元，其中包括德国政府，该政府在 7 月初出售了 49,859 BTC，价值 30 亿美元，并不再持有 BTC。 Mt Gox 在 7 月和 8 月偿还了 95,958 BTC，但仍持有 44,898 BTC，价值 26.5 亿美元，仅为初始持有量的三分之一。 GenesisTrading 于 8 月 2 日分配了 24,068 BTC 进行偿还，不再持有 BTC。

However, the U.S. government still holds 203,650 confiscated BTC worth $12 billion, and like in the German government case, this can be a big selling force. Nevertheless, recent actions suggest limited near-term sell-off risk.

然而，美国政府仍然持有 203,650 个被没收的比特币，价值 120 亿美元，就像德国政府的案例一样，这可能是一股巨大的抛售力量。尽管如此，最近的走势表明近期抛售风险有限。

In 2023 and 2024, the U.S. government moved 35,516 BTC worth $1.48 billion to Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) at nearly $41,637, but overall there were only weak price reactions because most sales were done via OTC with minimal impact on the market.

2023 年和 2024 年，美国政府以近 41,637 美元的价格将价值 14.8 亿美元的 35,516 枚 BTC 转移到 Coinbase（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN），但总体而言价格反应疲软，因为大多数销售都是通过场外交易进行的，对市场影响很小。

Long-term holders, which increased their supply by 262,000 BTC in August, bringing their total holding to 14.82 million BTC, or 75% of the total supply, remain another positive factor.

长期持有者在 8 月份增加了 262,000 BTC 的供应量，使其总持有量达到 1,482 万枚 BTC，占总供应量的 75%，这仍然是另一个积极因素。

Similarly, BTC ETFs can be a renewed buying force, if the pattern of alternating between positive and negative months continues.

同样，如果积极月份和消极月份交替的模式持续下去，比特币 ETF 可能会成为新的购买力。

Other potential buying simulators include the likelihood of the FED cutting the interest rate in September, which could boost demand for risky assets like BTC or Bitcoin ETFs. FTX will repay $16 billion to creditors in cash, not crypto, which can be reinjected into BTC and the broad market.

其他潜在的购买模拟器包括美联储在 9 月份降息的可能性，这可能会增加对 BTC 或比特币 ETF 等风险资产的需求。 FTX 将以现金而非加密货币的形式向债权人偿还 160 亿美元，这些现金可以重新注入 BTC 和广阔的市场。

This article was originally published on U.Today

本文最初发表于 U.Today