比特幣可以打破11萬美元的阻力水平嗎？投資者的關鍵見解

比特幣（BTC）再次處於關鍵點，以110,000美元的電阻水平調情。

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again at a pivotal juncture, flirting with the $110,000 resistance level. As the flagship cryptocurrency approaches this critical threshold, investors are asking: Can Bitcoin sustain its bullish momentum and break through this psychological barrier?

比特幣（BTC）再次處於關鍵點，以110,000美元的電阻水平調情。當旗艦加密貨幣接近這個關鍵的門檻時，投資者在問：比特幣能否維持其看漲的勢頭並突破這種心理障礙？

This article delves deep into the technical, institutional, and macroeconomic factors shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. It also examines the role of retail traders and the key levels to watch as Bitcoin attempts to pierce through the formidable $110,000 resistance zone.

本文深入研究了塑造比特幣軌蹟的技術，機構和宏觀經濟因素。它還研究了零售交易員的作用和關鍵水平，因為比特幣試圖穿越強大的110,000美元的電阻區。

Why $110K Is Crucial: A Psychological and Technical Perspective

為什麼$ 110K至關重要：心理和技術視角

The $110,000 resistance level is more than just a number—it carries significant psychological weight for investors and traders. Throughout history, Bitcoin has encountered notable resistance at major round numbers, which often serve as round-trip levels for traders.

110,000美元的阻力水平不僅僅是一個數字，它為投資者和交易者帶來了重大的心理體重。在整個歷史上，比特幣在主要的圓形數字上遇到了顯著的阻力，這通常是交易者的往返水平。

Breaking through these levels typically signals the start of a new bullish phase. In the current market, several technical indicators point toward potential strength in Bitcoin’s favor.

突破這些級別通常表示新看漲階段的開始。在當前市場，一些技術指標指出了比特幣有利的潛在力量。

Technical Analysis: Patterns, Indicators, and Fractals

技術分析：模式，指標和分形

Bitcoin's recent price action shows promising signs. After hitting a local bottom of $100,300 on June 6, BTC bounced back, breaking out of a descending trendline on May 18 and forming an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern (chart 1).

比特幣最近的價格動作顯示了有希望的跡象。在6月6日達到了100,300美元的本地底部後，BTC反彈了，在5月18日爆發了降落的趨勢線，並形成了倒置的頭和股模式（圖1）。

This bullish setup suggests that if Bitcoin can breach the neckline at $112,700, it could target levels as high as $146,892. However, if it fails to break above $110K by June 18, a correction toward the $98K-$102,500 support range becomes likely.

這種看漲的設置表明，如果比特幣可以以112,700美元的價格違反領口，它的目標水平可能高達146,892美元。但是，如果到6月18日之前未能在$ 110K上損失超過$ 110K，則可能會更正98k- $ 102,500的支持範圍。

Chart 1: Bitcoin forming an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern

圖1：比特幣形成倒頭和肩膀的模式

Other technical indicators, such as the weekly Doji candle formation (chart 2), highlight market indecision, which can precede potential explosive moves.

其他技術指標，例如每週的DOJI蠟燭形成（圖2），突出顯示市場猶豫不決，可以在潛在的爆炸性移動之前進行。

Chart 2: Weekly chart showing Doji candle and fib levels

圖2：每週圖表顯示Doji蠟燭和纖維水平

Furthermore, fractal analysis comparing current price movements to the post-ETF approval rally in early 2024 (chart 3) suggests a similar breakout pattern may be unfolding.

此外，比較當前價格變動與2024年初的ETF後批准集會的分形分析（圖3）表明，類似的突破模式可能正在展開。

Chart 3: Fractal analysis comparing current rally to 2023 ETF approval rally

圖3：比較電流拉力與2023 ETF批准集會的分形分析

While these technical factors suggest strength in Bitcoin, it's crucial to consider the broader macroeconomic and institutional trends affecting the cryptocurrency market.

儘管這些技術因素暗示了比特幣的力量，但要考慮影響加密貨幣市場的更廣泛的宏觀經濟和機構趨勢至關重要。

Institutional Accumulation: A Key Driver of Bitcoin's Rally

機構積累：比特幣集會的關鍵驅動力

One of the most notable aspects of Bitcoin's current rally is the dominance of institutional players. Long-term holders have added 605,000 BTC to their accounts since the last all-time high, while short-term holders have offloaded 592,000 BTC in the past 30 days.

比特幣目前集會的最顯著方面之一是機構參與者的主導地位。自上次有史以來，長期持有人在其帳戶中增加了605,000 BTC，而短期持有人在過去30天內已卸載了592,000 BTC。

This shift indicates that institutional investors are calmly absorbing selling pressure from retail traders, who typically drive volatility during parabolic market phases.

這種轉變表明，機構投資者正在平靜地吸收零售商人的銷售壓力，零售商人通常會在拋物線市場階段推動波動。

Spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges have also dropped to levels last seen in October 2020, signaling that many investors are entering "HODL mode." This reduced liquidity on exchanges often precedes significant price movements.

集中式交流的現貨交易量也已下降到2020年10月上次出現的水平，這表明許多投資者正在進入“ HODL模式”。這種交流的流動性降低通常在價格上的重大變動之前。

Macroeconomic and Regulatory Factors: Tailwinds and Headwinds

宏觀經濟和監管因素：逆風和逆風

The stabilization of US-China trade relations has reduced geopolitical risks, making Bitcoin an attractive safe-haven asset. Softer US inflation data and a rebounding stock market have further bolstered risk-on sentiment, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin's price appreciation.

美國 - 中國貿易關係的穩定降低了地緣政治風險，使比特幣成為有吸引力的避風港資產。美國通貨膨脹數據和反彈股市更加柔和，進一步增強了風險的情緒，為比特幣的價格欣賞創造了有利的環境。

However, regulatory clarity remains a mixed bag globally. Recent actions in Australia and Paraguay highlight the ongoing scrutiny of the crypto market.

但是，監管清晰度仍然是全球混合的袋子。澳大利亞和巴拉圭的最新行動強調了加密市場的持續審查。

These developments underscore the importance of monitoring regulatory changes, as they can significantly impact market dynamics.

這些事態發展強調了監測監管變化的重要性，因為它們可以顯著影響市場動態。

Retail Participation: The Missing Ingredient?

零售參與：缺少成分？

Despite Bitcoin nearing new all-time highs, retail interest is surprisingly muted. Google search volumes for Bitcoin are flat compared to the 2021 bull run, suggesting that the current rally is largely institution-driven.

儘管比特幣接近新的歷史最高點，但零售業的興趣令人驚訝。與2021年的公牛跑步相比，比特幣的Google搜索量是平坦的，這表明當前的集會在很大程度上是機構驅動的。

While this could lead to a more stable uptrend, the lack of retail frenzy raises questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin's momentum. Historically, parabolic market spikes are often driven by FOMO (fear of missing out) among retail traders.

儘管這可能導致更穩定的上升趨勢，但缺乏零售瘋狂引發了有關比特幣勢頭可持續性的疑問。從歷史上看，拋物線市場的峰值通常是由零售商人中的FOMO（擔心失踪）驅動的。

Key Levels to Watch: Support and Resistance Zones

關鍵水平要觀看：支撐和阻力區域

Immediate Resistance Levels:

立即阻力水平：

Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $110,850, followed by critical levels at $112,000 and $112,500. A close above $112,500 could trigger a rally toward $120,000 and beyond.

比特幣立即面臨110,850美元的阻力，其次是$ 112,000和112,500美元的關鍵水平。超過$ 112,500的收盤價可能會觸發集會，以達到$ 120,000及以後的$ 120,000。

Support Zones:

支持區：

If Bitcoin fails to break above $110K, a correction toward the $100,000-$102,500 support range becomes likely. This scenario would be driven by profit-taking from short-term traders and the absence of fresh retail inflows.

如果比特幣未能超過11萬美元，則可能會更正100,000美元至102,500美元的支持範圍。這種情況將由短期交易者的利潤和缺少新的零售流入驅動。

The Road Ahead: Can Bitcoin Sustain Its Momentum?

前面的道路：比特幣可以維持其動力嗎？