比特币可以打破11万美元的阻力水平吗？投资者的关键见解

比特币（BTC）再次处于关键点，以110,000美元的电阻水平调情。

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again at a pivotal juncture, flirting with the $110,000 resistance level. As the flagship cryptocurrency approaches this critical threshold, investors are asking: Can Bitcoin sustain its bullish momentum and break through this psychological barrier?

比特币（BTC）再次处于关键点，以110,000美元的电阻水平调情。当旗舰加密货币接近这个关键的门槛时，投资者在问：比特币能否维持其看涨的势头并突破这种心理障碍？

This article delves deep into the technical, institutional, and macroeconomic factors shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. It also examines the role of retail traders and the key levels to watch as Bitcoin attempts to pierce through the formidable $110,000 resistance zone.

本文深入研究了塑造比特币轨迹的技术，机构和宏观经济因素。它还研究了零售交易员的作用和关键水平，因为比特币试图穿越强大的110,000美元的电阻区。

Why $110K Is Crucial: A Psychological and Technical Perspective

为什么$ 110K至关重要：心理和技术视角

The $110,000 resistance level is more than just a number—it carries significant psychological weight for investors and traders. Throughout history, Bitcoin has encountered notable resistance at major round numbers, which often serve as round-trip levels for traders.

110,000美元的阻力水平不仅仅是一个数字，它为投资者和交易者带来了重大的心理体重。在整个历史上，比特币在主要的圆形数字上遇到了显着的阻力，这通常是交易者的往返水平。

Breaking through these levels typically signals the start of a new bullish phase. In the current market, several technical indicators point toward potential strength in Bitcoin’s favor.

突破这些级别通常表示新看涨阶段的开始。在当前市场，一些技术指标指出了比特币有利的潜在力量。

Technical Analysis: Patterns, Indicators, and Fractals

技术分析：模式，指标和分形

Bitcoin's recent price action shows promising signs. After hitting a local bottom of $100,300 on June 6, BTC bounced back, breaking out of a descending trendline on May 18 and forming an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern (chart 1).

比特币最近的价格动作显示了有希望的迹象。在6月6日达到了100,300美元的本地底部后，BTC反弹了，在5月18日爆发了降落的趋势线，并形成了倒置的头和股模式（图1）。

This bullish setup suggests that if Bitcoin can breach the neckline at $112,700, it could target levels as high as $146,892. However, if it fails to break above $110K by June 18, a correction toward the $98K-$102,500 support range becomes likely.

这种看涨的设置表明，如果比特币可以以112,700美元的价格违反领口，它的目标水平可能高达146,892美元。但是，如果到6月18日之前未能在$ 110K上损失超过$ 110K，则可能会更正98k- $ 102,500的支持范围。

Chart 1: Bitcoin forming an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern

图1：比特币形成倒头和肩膀的模式

Other technical indicators, such as the weekly Doji candle formation (chart 2), highlight market indecision, which can precede potential explosive moves.

其他技术指标，例如每周的DOJI蜡烛形成（图2），突出显示市场犹豫不决，可以在潜在的爆炸性移动之前进行。

Chart 2: Weekly chart showing Doji candle and fib levels

图2：每周图表显示Doji蜡烛和纤维水平

Furthermore, fractal analysis comparing current price movements to the post-ETF approval rally in early 2024 (chart 3) suggests a similar breakout pattern may be unfolding.

此外，比较当前价格变动与2024年初的ETF后批准集会的分形分析（图3）表明，类似的突破模式可能正在展开。

Chart 3: Fractal analysis comparing current rally to 2023 ETF approval rally

图3：比较电流拉力与2023 ETF批准集会的分形分析

While these technical factors suggest strength in Bitcoin, it's crucial to consider the broader macroeconomic and institutional trends affecting the cryptocurrency market.

尽管这些技术因素暗示了比特币的力量，但要考虑影响加密货币市场的更广泛的宏观经济和机构趋势至关重要。

Institutional Accumulation: A Key Driver of Bitcoin's Rally

机构积累：比特币集会的关键驱动力

One of the most notable aspects of Bitcoin's current rally is the dominance of institutional players. Long-term holders have added 605,000 BTC to their accounts since the last all-time high, while short-term holders have offloaded 592,000 BTC in the past 30 days.

比特币目前集会的最显着方面之一是机构参与者的主导地位。自上次有史以来，长期持有人在其帐户中增加了605,000 BTC，而短期持有人在过去30天内已卸载了592,000 BTC。

This shift indicates that institutional investors are calmly absorbing selling pressure from retail traders, who typically drive volatility during parabolic market phases.

这种转变表明，机构投资者正在平静地吸收零售商人的销售压力，零售商人通常会在抛物线市场阶段推动波动。

Spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges have also dropped to levels last seen in October 2020, signaling that many investors are entering "HODL mode." This reduced liquidity on exchanges often precedes significant price movements.

集中式交流的现货交易量也已下降到2020年10月上次出现的水平，这表明许多投资者正在进入“ HODL模式”。这种交流的流动性降低通常在价格上的重大变动之前。

Macroeconomic and Regulatory Factors: Tailwinds and Headwinds

宏观经济和监管因素：逆风和逆风

The stabilization of US-China trade relations has reduced geopolitical risks, making Bitcoin an attractive safe-haven asset. Softer US inflation data and a rebounding stock market have further bolstered risk-on sentiment, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin's price appreciation.

美国 - 中国贸易关系的稳定降低了地缘政治风险，使比特币成为有吸引力的避风港资产。美国通货膨胀数据和反弹股市更加柔和，进一步增强了风险的情绪，为比特币的价格欣赏创造了有利的环境。

However, regulatory clarity remains a mixed bag globally. Recent actions in Australia and Paraguay highlight the ongoing scrutiny of the crypto market.

但是，监管清晰度仍然是全球混合的袋子。澳大利亚和巴拉圭的最新行动强调了加密市场的持续审查。

These developments underscore the importance of monitoring regulatory changes, as they can significantly impact market dynamics.

这些事态发展强调了监测监管变化的重要性，因为它们可以显着影响市场动态。

Retail Participation: The Missing Ingredient?

零售参与：缺少成分？

Despite Bitcoin nearing new all-time highs, retail interest is surprisingly muted. Google search volumes for Bitcoin are flat compared to the 2021 bull run, suggesting that the current rally is largely institution-driven.

尽管比特币接近新的历史最高点，但零售业的兴趣令人惊讶。与2021年的公牛跑步相比，比特币的Google搜索量是平坦的，这表明当前的集会在很大程度上是机构驱动的。

While this could lead to a more stable uptrend, the lack of retail frenzy raises questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin's momentum. Historically, parabolic market spikes are often driven by FOMO (fear of missing out) among retail traders.

尽管这可能导致更稳定的上升趋势，但缺乏零售疯狂引发了有关比特币势头可持续性的疑问。从历史上看，抛物线市场的峰值通常是由零售商人中的FOMO（担心失踪）驱动的。

Key Levels to Watch: Support and Resistance Zones

关键水平要观看：支撑和阻力区域

Immediate Resistance Levels:

立即阻力水平：

Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $110,850, followed by critical levels at $112,000 and $112,500. A close above $112,500 could trigger a rally toward $120,000 and beyond.

比特币立即面临110,850美元的阻力，其次是$ 112,000和112,500美元的关键水平。超过$ 112,500的收盘价可能会触发集会，以达到$ 120,000及以后的$ 120,000。

Support Zones:

支持区：

If Bitcoin fails to break above $110K, a correction toward the $100,000-$102,500 support range becomes likely. This scenario would be driven by profit-taking from short-term traders and the absence of fresh retail inflows.

如果比特币未能超过11万美元，则可能会更正100,000美元至102,500美元的支持范围。这种情况将由短期交易者的利润和缺少新的零售流入驱动。

The Road Ahead: Can Bitcoin Sustain Its Momentum?

前面的道路：比特币可以维持其动力吗？