比特幣的底線：鏈上數據闡明了關鍵的宏觀支持

隨著比特幣經歷長期熊市，尖端的鏈上數據提供了關鍵的見解，分析師確定了關鍵的宏觀底部和明智資金累積的跡象。

As Bitcoin navigates a prolonged bear market, on-chain data emerges as a beacon, with analysts pinpointing a critical macro bottom for the leading cryptocurrency.

隨著比特幣在漫長的熊市中航行，鏈上數據成為燈塔，分析師指出了領先加密貨幣的關鍵宏觀底部。

The Hunt for Bitcoin's 'Ultimate Support'

尋找比特幣的“終極支持”

For six arduous months, the Bitcoin market has been grappling with bearish sentiment. Yet, amidst the volatility, a critical piece of analysis from renowned market expert Ali Martinez, leveraging the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) on-chain metric, offers a compelling perspective. Martinez has identified an "ultimate support" level for Bitcoin at $47,960. This isn't just a random number; the CVDD metric tracks the price point where long-term holders typically distribute their coins, establishing a new, robust cost basis that new entrants are likely to defend fiercely. With Bitcoin currently hovering around the $66,000 mark, this analysis suggests there might be further downside before hitting this historically significant floor – a level that has consistently preceded major price rebounds.

在艱難的六個月裡，比特幣市場一直在努力應對看跌情緒。然而，在波動之中，著名市場專家 Ali Martinez 利用鏈上累積價值天數 (CVDD) 指標進行的一項重要分析提供了令人信服的觀點。馬丁內斯確定比特幣的「最終支撐」水準為 47,960 美元。這不僅僅是一個隨機數，而是一個隨機數。 CVDD 指標追蹤長期持有者通常分配代幣的價格點，建立了新的、強大的成本基礎，新進入者可能會激烈捍衛。由於比特幣目前徘徊在 66,000 美元大關附近，這項分析表明，在觸及這一具有歷史意義的底部之前，可能還會有進一步的下跌——這一水平一直先於價格大幅反彈。

Whales Accumulate, Bitcoin Breaks Free

鯨魚積累，比特幣掙脫束縛

Adding another layer to the narrative, data from cryptocurrency analysis platform Santiment reveals intriguing market dynamics. Despite global uncertainties, Bitcoin is demonstrating remarkable resilience, charting its own course and decoupling from traditional markets like the S&P 500. While stocks have dipped, Bitcoin has shown an upward trajectory, reinforcing its "digital gold" appeal during times of geopolitical flux. More importantly, Santiment's on-chain data highlights a significant trend: "whale and shark" wallets—those holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC—have resumed accumulation. The sheer number of wallets holding 100 or more BTC has even reached a historic record, surpassing 20,000. This influx of large-scale capital, coupled with a 365-day Market Value – Realized Value (MVRV) ratio indicating long-term investors are currently at a loss, suggests that current price levels present a comparatively lower risk entry point.

來自加密貨幣分析平台 Santiment 的數據揭示了有趣的市場動態，為故事增添了另一層內容。儘管全球存在不確定性，比特幣仍表現出非凡的彈性，制定了自己的路線，並與標準普爾 500 指數等傳統市場脫鉤。雖然股市下跌，但比特幣顯示出上漲軌跡，在地緣政治動盪時期增強了其「數位黃金」的吸引力。更重要的是，Santiment 的鏈上數據突顯了一個重要趨勢：「鯨魚和鯊魚」錢包（持有 10 至 10,000 BTC 的錢包）已經恢復累積。持有 100 個或更多 BTC 的錢包數量甚至達到了歷史記錄，超過 20,000 個。大規模資本的湧入，加上365天的市值-已實現價值（MVRV）比率表明長期投資者目前處於虧損狀態，表明當前的價格水平呈現出相對較低的風險切入點。

Miner Sales vs. Smart Money Moves

礦工銷售與明智的資金流動

While the market absorbs news of public Bitcoin miners, such as Riot Platforms, liquidating substantial portions of their BTC reserves (Riot offloaded 3,778 BTC in Q1 2026), the broader picture painted by on-chain metrics offers a counter-narrative. The consistent accumulation by large entities suggests that while miner selling might exert some short-term pressure, the underlying demand from strategic, long-term players remains robust. This dynamic hints at a potential battleground between short-term supply pressure and foundational, long-term demand as the market inches closer to a definitive macro bottom.

雖然市場吸收了 Riot 平台等公共比特幣礦商清算其大部分 BTC 儲備的消息（Riot 在 2026 年第一季度出售了 3,778 BTC），但鏈上指標描繪的更廣泛的情況卻提供了相反的敘述。大型實體的持續增持表明，雖然礦商拋售可能會帶來一些短期壓力，但策略性長期參與者的潛在需求仍然強勁。隨著市場逐漸接近明確的宏觀底部，這種動態暗示著短期供應壓力與基本長期需求之間的潛在戰場。

The Big Picture: Patience and Perspective

大局觀：耐心與遠見

My take? The combination of a mathematically derived "ultimate support" from CVDD and the undeniable signals of significant accumulation by deep-pocketed investors paints a powerful picture. It suggests that while we might still navigate some choppy waters, with a potential dip towards that $47,960 mark, the smart money is already positioning itself. This isn't just about riding the waves; it's about understanding the deep currents. Bitcoin's emerging role as a digital haven, coupled with transparent on-chain signals, provides a clearer roadmap than ever before for those looking beyond the daily price swings.

我的看法是？來自 CVDD 的數學推導的「終極支撐」與財力雄厚的投資者大量增持的不可否認的信號相結合，描繪了一幅強有力的圖景。這表明，雖然我們可能仍會經歷一些波濤洶湧的水域，並有可能跌向 47,960 美元的大關，但聰明的資金已經做好了定位。這不僅僅是乘風破浪；這是關於了解深層電流。比特幣作為數位避風港的新興角色，加上透明的鏈上訊號，為那些關注每日價格波動之外的人們提供了比以往更清晰的路線圖。

Until Next Time, Fellow Travelers!

各位旅友，下次再見！

So, while the market might be throwing its usual curveballs, keeping an eye on these on-chain breadcrumbs could give you the edge. After all, in the concrete jungle of crypto, smart money leaves a trail, and sometimes, that trail leads straight to the macro bottom. Stay sharp, New York!

因此，儘管市場可能會出現通常的曲線球，但密切注意這些鏈上麵包屑可能會給您帶來優勢。畢竟，在加密貨幣的水泥叢林中，聰明的資金會留下痕跡，有時，這條痕跡會直接通往宏觀底部。保持敏銳，紐約！